September 6, 2019
Mortgage rates held steady today, which is a victory in light of yesterday's big jump higher. Part of that jump was due to fear that today's jobs report would strike a similar tone to some of this week's other economic reports. That would have been a problem for rates because stronger economic data pushes rates higher, all other things being equal.
But the jobs report was merely "OK," at best, with the overall tally of newly created jobs coming in at 130k. That was well short of the 158k forecast, but also well within the margin of error for the data. In response, the bond market (which underlies mortgage rates) managed to make it back to unchanged levels on the day. Before the jobs report, it was indicating another move toward higher rates.
In the bigger picture, yesterday's big jump doesn't look so big as it left us at rates that would have been the lowest in 3 years on any other day before August 28th. Even now, most lenders are less than 0.125% higher from last week's long-term lows.
Loan Originator Perspective
A weak NFP report today helped stabilize bond markets, and rates held near yesterday's pricing. While it may take new tariff trauma to move rates lower, simply staying at current levels gives secondary desks confidence to improve pricing. I am still locking loans within 30 days of closing, and floating most further out. - Ted Rood, Senior Originator
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 3.5-3.625%
- FHA/VA - 3.25%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.125 - 3.25%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 3.25-3.75% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- 2019 has been the best year for mortgage rates since 2011. Big, long-lasting improvements such as this one are increasingly susceptible to bounces/corrections.
- Fed policy and the US/China trade war have been key players
- The Fed and the bond market (which dictates rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad, as well as trade war updates. The stronger the data and trade relations, the more rates could rise, while weaker data and trade wars will lead to new long-term lows.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.