May 9, 2019
Mortgage rates were just slightly lower on average today with some lenders flat and others distinctly lower. The discrepancy is due to the timing of yesterday's market movements and the corresponding lender reactions. Some lenders saw enough weakness to reprice for the worse before the end of the day. Others just let it ride. Those who repriced were able to drop rates back in line with yesterday morning's rates today. Those who didn't reprice just remained in the same territory, making this the 4th straight day with very little change despite a more pronounced move lower in 10yr Treasury yields.
Financial markets continue hanging on every headline pertaining to the trade war. In general, news that makes a deal seem less likely is good for rates while news that increases the odds of a deal pushes rates higher. We were treated to both examples today, but tomorrow remains a bigger deal as a new round of tariff hikes will go into effect unless the US and China strike some sort of deal. The risk of such a deal is reason enough to be cautious with respect to floating your mortgage rate if you have the chance to lock.
Loan Originator Perspective
Lock 'em! May get slightly better. Will get a lot worse (if worse). -Robert Van Gilder
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 4.25
- FHA/VA - 4.0%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 4.00%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 3.875-4.25% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- Early 2019 saw a rapid reevaluation of big-picture trends in rates and in markets in general
- The Federal Reserve has been a key player, and while they aren't the ones pulling the global economic strings, their response to the economy has helped rates fall more quickly than they otherwise might.
- Based on the Fed's laundry list of concerns, the bond market (which determines rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad. The stronger the data, the more rates could rise, while weaker data could lead to new long-term lows.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.