May 17, 2019
Wednesday was the best day this week for Mortgage rates with the average lender at the lowest levels in more than a month and very close to the lowest levels in more than a year. Things changed on Thursday with rates moving up slightly. That said, Thursday would have been the best day in more than a month had it not been for Wednesday!
Friday brought effectively no change to Thursday's levels, thus keeping the average lender very close to long-term lows. In fact, the average loan quote won't have changed in terms of the quoted interest rate during the past 3 days--only in terms of the upfront costs. In other words, APR would be slightly higher while the payment rate itself would be unchanged (APR factors certain upfront costs into a total cost of financing).
In the bigger picture, rates have had a pretty good run since mid-April--so good that investors may be looking for a bit of a bounce before they're open to exploring any additional improvements from here. Next week doesn't offer much to help flesh out the bigger picture with only a few economic reports and the Minutes from the most recent Fed meeting to offer guidance. Apart from that, rates may take cues from stocks or various news headlines surrounding trade and other geopolitical issues.
Loan Originator Perspective
Bond markets weathered small AM losses following an unexpectedly strong Consumer Sentiment survey today, regaining their footing in PM trading. Rates are still very near their 1 year rate lows. I'm locking clients closing within 30 days, going case by case for those with slightly longer lead times. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 4.0-4.125
- FHA/VA - 4.0%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.875%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 3.875-4.25% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- Early 2019 saw a rapid reevaluation of big-picture trends in rates and in markets in general
- The Federal Reserve has been a key player, and while they aren't the ones pulling the global economic strings, their response to the economy has helped rates fall more quickly than they otherwise might.
- Based on the Fed's laundry list of concerns, the bond market (which determines rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad. The stronger the data, the more rates could rise, while weaker data could lead to new long-term lows.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.