May 10, 2019
Mortgage rates moved up on Friday, ultimately making it to the highest levels of the week for the average lender. Underlying bond markets came under pressure as Trump made several reassuring comments about the future potential for a trade agreement between the US and China. Before that, trade war headlines dominated the week and had taken rates and stock prices generally lower. The net effect is that the market should shift from worrying about this week representing a dire deadline to expecting an ongoing and nuanced process.
That nuanced, ongoing process is not as good for interest rates as the panic that preceded it. That means there's a legitimate risk that rate momentum is higher until and unless some economic or political event comes along to make a case to the contrary.
Loan Originator Perspective
As much as I do not like locking on Friday, that is my suggestion to clients. It remains pretty risky to float and I do not see much to gain. -Victor Burek, Churchill Mortgage
As of early PM, US/China tariff talks ended without any agreement, and bond markets posted small gains. By now, it appears this drama has been priced in, so a successful resolution could do more to hurt rates than continued stalemates would do to help. I'll lock loans closing within 30 days. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 4.25
- FHA/VA - 4.0%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 4.00%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 3.875-4.25% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- Early 2019 saw a rapid reevaluation of big-picture trends in rates and in markets in general
- The Federal Reserve has been a key player, and while they aren't the ones pulling the global economic strings, their response to the economy has helped rates fall more quickly than they otherwise might.
- Based on the Fed's laundry list of concerns, the bond market (which determines rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad. The stronger the data, the more rates could rise, while weaker data could lead to new long-term lows.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.