March 28, 2019
Mortgage rates moved higher by a measurable amount today--the first time they've done such a thing in nearly a month! Even after the modest increase, March is still on track to be the best month for mortgage rates in more than a decade.
There are several news stories today that mentioned this being the best week for mortgage rates in more than a decade. This has to do with Freddie Mac's weekly survey data which regrettably only measures rate movement in the first half of any given week. Had their data accounted for entire weeks, it would have shown August 8-12th, 2011 edging out the current week.
This is splitting hairs though. Any way you slice it, things have been great for mortgage rates. The question is how long they'll remain that way. Today's modest weakness is the first real warning shot to suggest the current winning streak might cool off for a bit. Ultimately though, that will depend on economic data at home and abroad. Generally speaking, the more it looks like the global economy is in trouble, the better it will be for rates. Vice versa if the data manages to surprise to the upside.
Loan Originator Perspective
Bond markets took a respite today, hovering near unchanged. While we're down slightly from yesterday's peaks, retaining the vast majority of the recent rally is a win. I'm locking April loans, floating most closing beyond. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 4.00-4.125%
- FHA/VA - 3.75-3.875%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.75-3.875%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 3.875-4.25% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- Early 2019 saw a rapid reevaluation of big-picture trends in rates and in markets in general
- The Federal Reserve has been a key player, and while they aren't the ones pulling the global economic strings, their response to the economy has helped rates fall more quickly than they otherwise might.
- Based on the Fed's laundry list of concerns, their current outlook for rate hikes and economic growth, and their bond-buying policy shifts, we've all but certainly seen the highest rates of this economic cycle in late 2018.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.