March 27, 2019
Mortgage rates moved lower for the 6th straight day, bringing them very close to the best levels since late 2017. Perhaps more impressive (or telling) is the fact that rates haven't even had a single "bad day" since March 1st. It's impressive because it's been an incredibly long winning streak (we usually see a day here or there with rates nudging a bit higher). It's telling because it's exactly what you'd expect to find as the backdrop for what has been the single best month for mortgage rates in more than a decade.
The past 2 weeks have acted as a forceful breakout after several months spent in an increasingly narrow range. Such breakouts often carry momentum, especially when there are surprising economic updates or central bank policy at the scene of the crime (as there was with last week's Fed announcement and European economic data).
Now we're waiting to see how low we can go. It hasn't made sense to bet on a bounce in rates so far, but that could change soon. In general, there are only so many winning days that can be strung together before the rates market blows off a bit of steam. When that happens, it will be important to note how big the bounce is and whether it lasts more than a single day. If it simply presents itself as a single, token day of correction, rates will likely be heading even lower.
Loan Originator Perspective
Bond markets posted more gains, marking our 4th consecutive day of improvements since last Wednesday's Fed announcement. While it's inevitable that rates won't drop forever, the trend is encouraging. I'm floating loans over a month from closing. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator
Bonds continue to rally and our now at the lowest yields in about a year and a half. Rate sheets do reflect much of the recent gains so i find it hard to recommend not locking in now. If you have been floating, you have picked up improved pricing so its now time to cash in. -Victor Burek, Churchill Mortgage
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 4.00-4.125%
- FHA/VA - 3.75-3.875%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.75-3.875%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 3.875-4.25% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- Early 2019 saw a rapid reevaluation of big-picture trends in rates and in markets in general
- The Federal Reserve has been a key player, and while they aren't the ones pulling the global economic strings, their response to the economy has helped rates fall more quickly than they otherwise might.
- Based on the Fed's laundry list of concerns, their current outlook for rate hikes and economic growth, and their bond-buying policy shifts, we've all but certainly seen the highest rates of this economic cycle in late 2018.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.