November 25, 2019
Mortgage rates finally moved a bit higher today after avoiding such things for nearly 2 full weeks. The losses were mild today, but nonetheless take the average lender back in line with rates from November 15th. This is more of a commentary on the narrowness of the recent range than the scope of today's weakness.
Mortgage lenders will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and some will be closed on Friday as well. From a rate standpoint, the market forces that underpin rate movement are severely impacted by the holiday. There is no reliable way to know if the impact will be positive or negative, simply that a decrease in the staffing levels and an increase in distraction/absences among market participants can result in some fairly random movement for rates. The takeaway is that we could see some volatility in markets this week that we wouldn't see on a normal week all other things being equal. We'll likely be waiting until the 2nd week of December before getting a clearer sense of interest rate momentum.
Loan Originator Perspective
Bond markets sleepwalked through the start of the holiday-shortened week today, posting minimal gains. Wednesday does bring some meaningful inflation data, but it seems unlikely to significantly change our holding pattern. I am locking December closings for all but risk-craving clients. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator
Today's Most Prevalent Rates For Top Tier Scenarios
- 30YR FIXED -3.75%
- FHA/VA - 3.375%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.375%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 3.25-3.75% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- 2019 has been the best year for mortgage rates since 2011. Big, long-lasting improvements such as this one are increasingly susceptible to bounces/corrections
- Fed policy and the US/China trade war have been key players. Major updates on either front could cause a volatile reaction in rates
- The Fed and the bond market (which dictates rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad, as well as trade war updates. The stronger the data and trade relations, the more rates could rise, while weaker data and trade wars will lead to new long-term lows.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.