November 21, 2019
Mortgage rates spent a 2nd day with the average lender holding relatively steady. This follows a decent winning streak over the previous week and a half with the net effect being at least an eighth of a percent (.125%) improvement on the average conventional 30yr fixed quote.
Holding steady was a bit anticlimactic yesterday because the broader bond market (specifically, the benchmark US 10yr Treasury yield) indicated more improvement than we actually saw. That had a lot to do with the underperformance of bonds that specifically underlie mortgages (MBS or "mortgage-backed securities). But whereas MBS lagged Treasuries yesterday, they outperformed today, thus allowing lenders to keep rates unchanged even as 10yr yields moved moderately higher.
Day-to-day volatility aside, the bigger picture remains sideways and uncertain for rates. Investors need to see what happens with US/China trade negotiations and December's economic data before large-scale changes become more likely.
Loan Originator Perspective
Bond markets leveled off Thursday, posting small losses by early PM. With the month's best pricing clearly in view, I'm locking December closings. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator
Today's Most Prevalent Rates For Top Tier Scenarios
- 30YR FIXED -3.75%
- FHA/VA - 3.375%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.375%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 3.25-3.75% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- 2019 has been the best year for mortgage rates since 2011. Big, long-lasting improvements such as this one are increasingly susceptible to bounces/corrections
- Fed policy and the US/China trade war have been key players. Major updates on either front could cause a volatile reaction in rates
- The Fed and the bond market (which dictates rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad, as well as trade war updates. The stronger the data and trade relations, the more rates could rise, while weaker data and trade wars will lead to new long-term lows.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.