November 19, 2019
Mortgage rates had a great week last week and haven't done anything to jeopardize that so far this week. Today was the first time during these 2 weeks where rates have merely held steady as opposed to move lower.
The recent winning streak requires a caveat, however. It was largely made possible by the losing streak that preceded it. But if we're going to play that game, we could just as easily say that the losing streak was largely a reaction to the even bigger winning streak that's characterized most of 2019.
The takeaway from the back and forth above is that rate momentum can often adhere to considerations that are almost like the laws of physics (you know... equal and opposite reactions?). Generally speaking, the longer and stronger any given move has been, the more likely it becomes that we'll see a push back in the other direction. That's the key fear about the super long, super strong move toward lower rates in 2019, although the rate spikes that have popped up in the past few months have certainly begun to balance the bigger-picture equation.
In the short term, there is room for rates to move moderately in either direction, with the bigger movements likely not arriving until the first week of December at the earliest.
Loan Originator Perspective
Bonds continue to hold onto their recent gains and lenders have passed along much of the improvement. If you have been floating, you should be seeing better pricing, so probably time to cash in. Remember, all it takes for the gains to evaporate is 1 tweet which can come at any time. -Victor Burek, Churchill Mortgage
Today's Most Prevalent Rates For Top Tier Scenarios
- 30YR FIXED -3.75-3.875%
- FHA/VA - 3.375%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.375%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 3.25-3.75% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- 2019 has been the best year for mortgage rates since 2011. Big, long-lasting improvements such as this one are increasingly susceptible to bounces/corrections
- Fed policy and the US/China trade war have been key players. Major updates on either front could cause a volatile reaction in rates
- The Fed and the bond market (which dictates rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad, as well as trade war updates. The stronger the data and trade relations, the more rates could rise, while weaker data and trade wars will lead to new long-term lows.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.