October 7, 2019
Mortgage rates moved lower every week for the past 3 weeks. They covered a respectable amount of ground during that time and ultimately erased most of September's damage by Friday afternoon.
In outright terms, September's weakness pushed the average 30yr fixed rate quote roughly 3/8ths of a percentage point (.375%) higher. The past 3 weeks have helped to claw back roughly 0.25% of that.
Because of that relatively decent and relatively sustained winning streak, there's a risk that rates will hesitate to make any further improvements this week. Today's modest weakness serves as a softly-worded warning to that effect, but we'd need to see several more days of higher rates in order to confirm that sort of upward momentum. As of today, it's a risk to keep an eye on.
Loan Originator Perspective
Bond markets swung from small gains to losses Monday, amid purported tariff progress. Of course, those rumors have been floated multiple times before. With pricing near best levels since first week of September, I'm locking new deals closing with 45 days. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED -3.625%
- FHA/VA - 3.375%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.375%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 3.25-3.75% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- 2019 has been the best year for mortgage rates since 2011. Big, long-lasting improvements such as this one are increasingly susceptible to bounces/corrections and as of September, it looks like such a correction is underway
- Fed policy and the US/China trade war have been key players. Major updates on either front could cause a volatile reaction in rates
- The Fed and the bond market (which dictates rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad, as well as trade war updates. The stronger the data and trade relations, the more rates could rise, while weaker data and trade wars will lead to new long-term lows.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.