October 10, 2019
Mortgage rates were sharply higher today as the underlying bond market faced heavy selling pressure for a variety of reasons. When investors are more interested in selling bonds, prices move lower and yields (aka RATES) move higher. By the end of the day multiple lenders had recalled their rate sheets and reissued higher rates. The average lender was easily at the highest rates of the month.
Despite all of the above, multiple sources claim rates fell significantly this week and are now at the lowest levels since September 12th. Sadly, that's not true. It's the product of confusion that often happens on Thursdays when Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey is released. The survey mainly reflects lenders' rate offerings from Monday and Tuesday. Because mortgage rates can also move quite a bit on the other 3 days of the week, the recipe for confusion is obvious--especially with the report being released right in the middle of those 3 days.
Long story short, Monday and Tuesday had the highest rates last week. Monday and Tuesday of this week had the lowest rates. That made for a great drop in Freddie's rate survey. Today's rates, however, were much higher than those seen at the end of last week. You'd have to go all the way back to last Monday (Sept 30th) to see anything higher. Bottom line: highest rates of the month of October today!
Loan Originator Perspective
Rates rose rapidly today, amid DC Tariff Talks and hawkish ECB Minutes. Looks like this market is looking for excuses to sell off (meaning higher rates), the trend is definitely not our friend at the moment. Days like today are why I've been locking early in the process and will continue to do so. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator
Not a good day in the bond market. If your lender has repriced for the worse today, i would then recommend floating overnight. As of mid afternoon, we did get reports of a couple dozen reprices for the worse. If you can lock at this mornings rates, then I would lock today. -Victor Burek, Churchill Mortgage
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED -3.75%
- FHA/VA - 3.375%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.375%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 3.25-3.75% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- 2019 has been the best year for mortgage rates since 2011. Big, long-lasting improvements such as this one are increasingly susceptible to bounces/corrections and as of September, it looks like such a correction is underway
- Fed policy and the US/China trade war have been key players. Major updates on either front could cause a volatile reaction in rates
- The Fed and the bond market (which dictates rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad, as well as trade war updates. The stronger the data and trade relations, the more rates could rise, while weaker data and trade wars will lead to new long-term lows.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.