July 10, 2018
Mortgage rates didn't move for most lenders today. Remaining lenders were just slightly higher than yesterday, thus keeping this week's modest upward bias intact. In the slightly bigger picture, we had a fairly friendly consolidation in rates heading into last Friday and have been giving back the gains since then.
While we're technically able to talk about rate "movement" on a day to day (and even minute by minute) basis, the average mortgage borrower isn't seeing big changes. In fact, in terms of the NOTE rate (the one at the top of a loan quote that determines the payment), there hasn't been any change in 2 weeks. It's only in the form of the more granular EFFECTIVE rate, which takes upfront costs into consideration, that we can observe any movement. In other words, we're looking through a microscope at the moment while we wait for the next round of more significant momentum.
Loan Originator Perspective
Another sedate day for bond markets as rates crept up very slightly. It appears we'll need tame inflation data Thursday or some international drama to drive rates down. I'm still locking early. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator
The US 10yr currently sits at 2.870%. Looking forward on Wednesday with PPI and Wholesale Inventories and Thursday is the biggest day this week with CPI, Jobless Claims and a speech from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari. I believe that it is prudent to continue to lock at origination given the number of events this week. -Al Hensling
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 4.625-4.75
- FHA/VA - 4.25-4.5%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 4.125%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 3.75-4.25% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- Rates have been moving higher in a serious way due to headwinds that cannot be quickly defeated. These include the Fed's increasingly restrictive monetary policy outlook, the increased amount of Treasury issuance to pay for the tax bill (higher bond issuance = higher rates), and the possibility that fiscal stimulus results in higher growth/inflation.
- While we may see periodic corrections to the broader trend toward higher rates, it's safer to assume that broader trend can and will continue. Until that changes, it makes much more sense to remain heavily-biased toward locking as opposed to floating.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.