May 25, 2018
Mortgage rates moved much lower this week with another strong move today. As we discussed yesterday, this is certainly at odds with the prevailing news coverage, which continues to focus on yesterday's Freddie Mac survey. Here's a link to yesterday's article, or you can take my word for it that Freddie's survey is now outdated.
Or you could just forget all that and consider the following. At several huge, "household name" lenders, the upfront costs on a 30yr fixed quote of 4.75% are now the same as they were for 4.875% just a few days ago. That's a strong week by anyone's standards, and it brings today's rates in line with the lowest of the past several weeks.
Whether or not the strength persists, remains to be seen. We'll be waiting at least until next Tuesday to get any clues as markets are closed for Memorial Day on Monday.
Loan Originator Perspective
I recommend locking in the recent gains, as rolling the dice on further improvement could backfire. Especially if your lender has a rate renegotiation policy in place, locking is an easy call to make. - Timothy Baron
Week long incremental gains added up to some nice relief with the 10 Year below 3.000. Still favor locking at Origination. -Al Hensling
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 4.75%
- FHA/VA - 4.5%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 4.25%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 3.75-4.25% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- Rates have been moving higher in a serious way due to headwinds that cannot be quickly defeated. These include the Fed's increasingly restrictive monetary policy outlook, the increased amount of Treasury issuance to pay for the tax bill (higher bond issuance = higher rates), and the possibility that fiscal stimulus results in higher growth/inflation.
- While we may see periodic corrections to the broader trend toward higher rates, it's safer to assume that broader trend can and will continue. Until that changes, it makes much more sense to remain heavily-biased toward locking as opposed to floating.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.