December 27, 2018
Mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly lower today, which is a major victory considering how yesterday left off. Specifically, bond markets had weakened significantly in the afternoon. Weaker bonds coincide with mortgage lenders raising rates, but only if there's enough weakness early enough in the day. Yesterday's pace resulted in some lenders raising rates right away while others put it off until this morning.
All of the above meant that bond markets would have to have an amazing night in Europe and Asia if rates were to do anything other than move higher today. And that's exactly what happened (the amazing night in Europe and Asia). While this doesn't mean we're out of the woods in terms volatility going forward, it does mean we caught a friendly break. When such breaks occur near the lowest rates in months, it's a good sign. It suggests rates have a fighting chance to remain in this territory. The biggest wild card will be the stock market's performance in the first week of January. If it bounces in an even bigger way, mortgage rates could be pulled (higher) along for the ride.
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 4.625-4.75%
- FHA/VA - 4.25%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 4.125-4.25%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 4.375%-4.875% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- Headwinds that had plagued rates for most of the past 2 years are slowly dying down. The rising rate environment could flare up again, and some headwinds remain in effect, but the broader tone has taken a more optimistic shift.
- Highest rates in more than 7 years in Oct/Nov. Lowest rates in more than 3 months as of mid December
- This is a bit of a crossroads. We may look back at Oct/Nov and see a long-term ceiling, or we may look back at early December and see a temporary correction before more pain. Either way, it's one of the more hopeful positions we've been in for several years.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.