December 11, 2018
Mortgage rates rose almost imperceptibly today, with a few lenders not showing any detectable changes from yesterday. Still, it was the first time since November 30th that rates were higher than the previous day (on average). Today's move was so small that most lenders accounted for it in the form of upfront costs. This means that borrowers would be quoted the same rate as yesterday, but with a small increase in upfront costs.
For those who read yesterday's commentary (which said we may have just seen temporary lows in rates as the current move was running out of steam), none of this should come as a surprise. In fact, given the pace of the improvements in recent weeks, it's arguably a good thing to take a break because it could help rates hold in stronger territory for longer.
The most obvious jumping-off point for volatility on the horizon is next week's Federal Reserve Announcement. There are a few key economic reports due out between now and then that could also get things moving.
Loan Originator Perspective
Bond yields (and mortgage rates) rose slightly today, as our recent rally lost momentum. Markets often consolidate following strong moves, we'll hope that's the case here. In any case, I'm locking new loans closing within 45 days. Better to lock too early than too late! -Ted Rood, Senior Originator
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 4.75%
- FHA/VA - 4.25%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 4.25%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 4.375%-4.875% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- Headwinds that had plagued rates for most of the past 2 years are slowly dying down. The rising rate environment could flare up again, and some headwinds remain in effect, but the broader tone has taken a more optimistic shift.
- Highest rates in more than 7 years in Oct/Nov. Lowest rates in more than 2 months as of early December
- This is a bit of a crossroads. We may look back at Oct/Nov and see a long-term ceiling, or we may look back at early December and see a temporary correction before more pain. Either way, it's one of the more hopeful positions we've been in for several years.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.