November 9, 2018
Mortgage rates were mixed today, depending on the lender. Most lenders began the day in slightly worse shape compared to yesterday. Bond markets improved enough by mid-day that many lenders were able to offer positive reprices (new, better rate sheets). Lenders typically don't change mortgage rates more than once a day unless underlying markets have moved enough. Lenders who repriced generally ended up slightly better off compared to yesterday. The remainder were in worse shape. On average, rates were unchanged.
Bond markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Veterans Day. That means mortgage companies won't be available to accept rate locks, and many will be fully closed. When markets fire back up next week, they'll soon be able to digest an important report on inflation in the form of Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI). If inflation comes in higher than expected, it could reinvigorate recent upward pressure on rates. But if it misses to the downside, rates could continue the fight to hold the recent ceiling marked by the brief highs from early October and the more sustained highs seen this week.
Loan Originator Perspective
Bond markets posted moderate gains heading into the Veterans' Day 3 day weekend, and my pricing improved incrementally. Borrowers looking to lock today may want to wait until late PM to check pricing, since secondary desks can take a while to pass along gains. It's also common for lenders to price conservatively heading into holiday weekends. Most importantly, we all owe our veterans a huge thank you for their service and sacrifice. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 5.0%
- FHA/VA - 4.5%-4.75%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 4.5%-4.625%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 4.375%-4.875% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- Rates continue coping with several big-picture headwinds, including: the Fed's rate hike outlook (and general policy tightening), the increased amount of Treasury issuance to pay for the tax bill (higher bond issuance = higher rates), and the possibility that fiscal stimulus results in higher growth/inflation (which certainly seems to be the case so far in 2018).
- While rates were able to recover and stay sideways in the summer months, September and October have seen a surge up to the highest levels in more than 7 years.
- Upward pressure can continue as long as economic growth and inflation continue running near long-term highs. Stay defensive (i.e. generally more lock-biased). It will take a big change in economic fundamentals or geopolitical risk for the big picture to change. Such things tend to not happen as quickly as we'd like.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.