November 21, 2018
Mortgage rates were almost perfectly flat today, and have been largely unchanged since last Friday. If you were forced to predict such a thing at the end of last week, the odds would have been in your favor. In other words, when rates are on the move, Thanksgiving week tends to see a temporary pause in that movement.
Bond markets and mortgage lenders will naturally be closed for the holiday tomorrow. They will technically be open on Friday but participation will vary widely. Many lenders won't update their rate sheets. Others will only make token changes unless financial markets are unexpectedly wild. The following week should see market and mortgage rate activity pick up again. Happy Thanksgiving!
Loan Originator Perspective
As expected, bond markets slumbered through today, eyeing the Thanksgiving break. We've traded in a narrow range all week, but have sustained minimal losses. I'm locking clients closing within 30 days, and discussing locks with those 31-45 days from closing. Happy Thanksgiving, and thanks to all faithful MND readers! -Ted Rood, Senior Originator
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 4.875-5.0%
- FHA/VA - 4.375%-4.625%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 4.375%-4.5%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 4.375%-4.875% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- Rates continue coping with several big-picture headwinds, including: the Fed's rate hike outlook (and general policy tightening), the increased amount of Treasury issuance to pay for the tax bill (higher bond issuance = higher rates), and the possibility that fiscal stimulus results in higher growth/inflation (which certainly seems to be the case so far in 2018).
- While rates were able to recover and stay sideways in the summer months, September and October have seen a surge up to the highest levels in more than 7 years.
- Upward pressure can continue as long as economic growth and inflation continue running near long-term highs. Stay defensive (i.e. generally more lock-biased). It will take a big change in economic fundamentals or geopolitical risk for the big picture to change. Such things tend to not happen as quickly as we'd like.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.