May 1, 2017
Mortgage rates were unchanged to slightly higher today, keeping them in line with the previous 4 business days. This 5-day block stands out from the previous trend that had taken rates generally lower since the middle of March, ultimately hitting the best levels of the year on April 18th. At the time, a majority of lenders were quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates of 4.00% on top tier scenarios.
While there are still several lenders at 4.0%, most have moved up to 4.125%. Most borrowers will be quoted the same NOTE rate today and Friday, but with higher upfront costs (thus making for a higher EFFECTIVE rate).
The remainder of the week brings several big-ticket economic reports, including Friday's Employment Situation (the big "jobs report"). Economic data is one of the key motivations for rate movement, but traders are also interested in Fiscal policy headlines as well as the runoff election in France this weekend.
Loan Originator Perspective
Rates trudged upward slightly today, as markets await Wednesday's Federal Reserve statement. We've been in a pretty narrow range for the past week, the hope is that last Tuesday's 2.33% treasury yield will serve as a ceiling (current yield is 2.32%). With both a Fed Statement and NFP jobs report this week, there's a lot of data for markets to dissect. Floating takes some risk tolerance here, don't do so lightly. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator
Today's Best-Execution Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 4.0-4.125%
- FHA/VA - 3.5 - 3.75%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.25%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 2.75 - 3.25% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- Investors were relatively convinced that the decades-long trend toward lower rates had been permanently reversed after Trump became president, but such a conclusion would require YEARS to truly confirm
- Instead of continuing higher in 2017, rates instead formed a narrow, sideways range, and held inside until April. Investor perceptions are shifting such that fiscal reforms and other policy developments will need to live up to expectations in order to push rates higher. Geopolitical risks would also need to avoid flaring up (more than they already have)
- For the first time since the election, we're in a rate environment where you wouldn't be crazy not to lock at every little opportunity/improvement. Until/unless it's broken, the highest rates of early-2017 mark the ceiling, and we're now waiting to see how much lower we can go from here.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.