October 10, 2017
Mortgage rates were marginally lower today compared to last week, but only when factoring in upfront finance charges. Actual quoted interest rates have been unchanged for more than a week with the average lender quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates of 4.0% on top tier scenarios.
For the bond markets that underlie mortgage rates, it was a three-day weekend, and it showed. There were no relevant economic reports and very little by way of market-moving news or events. That will change later this week when we'll receive several important reports, including a key inflation reading on Friday.
In general, rates have been in a holding pattern at the highest levels in more than 2 months. The next move is important, because it will either keep 2017's narrow pattern intact or suggest a shift back toward higher rates for the first time since the beginning of the year.
Loan Originator Perspective
Bond markets posted small gains today following their Columbus Day hiatus. We'll take any progress we can get these days, but this certainly isn't a rally. The rest of the week brings treasury auctions and some inflation data that's sure to interest traders. I'm still in "lock early" mode until I see more than a pause in rates' upward trend. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 3.875-4.0%
- FHA/VA - 3.5%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.25%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 2.75 - 3.25% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- 2017 has proven to be a relatively good year for mortgage rates despite widespread expectations for a stronger push higher after the presidential election in late 2016. Most of the rate spike was done by the end of 2016 and we've generally moved sideways to lower since then
- The biggest question is whether or not this counter-intuitive trend has an expiration date. Rates haven't been immune from brief corrections back toward higher levels, and each correction causes concern that the good times are over.
- Despite those concerns, we've seen rates make new lows in April, June, and September. Although rates have been rising since early September, they'd have to move even higher before we'd consider a change in the bigger picture theme.
- All of the above having been said, past precedent suggests we're due for a much bigger dose of volatility some time soon.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.