June 22, 2017
Mortgage rates have been so little-changed in recent days that yesterday's coverage wouldn't need to be changed in order to apply perfectly today. Indeed, the 3rd paragraph is a word-for-word repeat. To be fair though, we would need to update yesterday's reference to "especially over the past 5 days." That "5" would now be a "6," obviously.
Any detectable difference in today's rate quotes would come in the form of slightly lower upfront costs versus yesterday. The actual interest rate quote remains unchanged. This sideways trend could easily continue for several more days.
The absence of change continues to be a good thing given that rates remain very close to their lowest levels in more than 8 months. Only a handful of recent days have been any better. 4.0% is the most prevalently-quoted conventional 30yr fixed rate on top tier scenarios, though a few of the aggressive lenders remain at 3.875%.
Loan Originator Perspective
Another flat, flat day in bond markets, and my rate sheets are virtually identical to yesterday's. Being stuck near 2017's lowest rates is a good thing. Hopefully we'll see some month end demand next week (improving pricing). I'm not in a big hurry to lock new loans closing in August, prefer to wait until we can do 30 day locks. Borrowers with July closings may want to lock now and relax. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 3.875-4.00
- FHA/VA - 3.5-3.75%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.125-3.25%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 2.75 - 3.25% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- Investors were relatively convinced that the decades-long trend toward lower rates had been permanently reversed after Trump became president, but such a conclusion would require YEARS to truly confirm
- Instead of continuing higher in 2017, rates instead formed a narrow, sideways range, and held inside until April. Investor perceptions are shifting such that fiscal reforms and other policy developments will need to live up to expectations in order to push rates higher. Geopolitical risks would also need to avoid flaring up (more than they already have)
- For the first time since the election, we're in a rate environment where you wouldn't be crazy not to lock at every little opportunity/improvement. Until/unless it's broken, the highest rates of early-2017 mark the ceiling, and we're now waiting to see how much lower we can go from here.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.