30 Year Fixed
4.14%    -0.01
15 Year Fixed
3.48%    +0.00
10YR Treasury
2.54%    -0.0127
FNMA 30YR 3.5
101.95    +0.02
FNMA 15YR 2.5
101.27    -0.19
Mortgage Rates Still Working on That Ceiling
January 16, 2018

Mortgage rates didn't move much today.  Most lenders were just slightly lower/better this morning, but mid-day market weakness prompted several of them to reissue higher rates.  In the bigger picture, however, the past several days represent a welcome stint of relative calm.  The general trend had been toward higher rates beginning in mid-December.

Granted, that general trend could continue and the past few business days could merely be a pause.  But the point is, whether it's a pause or the beginning of a reversal, either would begin the same way.  The important development in underlying bond markets has been resilience at the weaker (read: higher rate) levels.  Using 10yr Treasury yields as a benchmark for rate in general, we'd want 2.60% to continue to act as a ceiling.

The ingredient we're still missing is the move below an important floor.  In the current case, 2.52% would be a good first step.  A move to 2.42% would likely correspond with top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates returning to 4.0% on average.


Loan Originator Perspectives

Bond markets idled today as stocks reached yet more record highs.  I have to wonder what rates would/will do if/when stocks ever regress, but not banking on that happening soon.  There's limited pertinent data the rest of the week, I doubt we'll see any huge pricing swings.  A few lenders have repriced worse in the last 30 minutes, I'll continue locking early. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator

Going into the close, bonds are rallying off the highs of the day thanks to stocks moving lower.   A few lenders did reprice for the worse.  If your lender was one of the few to reprice worse, i would definitely float overnight.   If not, then its a toss up.   If you can tolerate the risk, i would roll the dice overnight and see if we can break through resistance at 2.52 on the 10 year tomorrow.  -Victor Burek, Churchill Mortgage


Today's Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED - 4.125%
  • FHA/VA - 3.75% 
  • 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.375%-3.5%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS -  2.75 - 3.25% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • 2017 had proven to be a relatively good year for mortgage rates despite widespread expectations for a stronger push higher after the presidential election in late 2016. 

  • While rates remain low in absolute terms, they moved higher in a more threatening way heading into the 4th quarter, relative to the stability and improvement seen earlier in 2017

  • The default stance for now is that this trend toward higher rates has the potential to continue.  It will take more than a few great days here and there for that outlook to change.

  • For weeks, this bullet point had warned about recent stability inviting a bigger dose of volatility.  That volatility is now here.  As such, locking is generally the better choice until the volatility is clearly dying down.
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders.  The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable.  Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
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Today's Rates
Best Execution
Rate Change
30 Yr FRM 4.14% -0.01
15 Yr FRM 3.48% +0.00
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.80% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.29% -0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 3.21% -0.01
Average Mortgage Rates
Rate Points Change
FHFA *
15 Yr. Fixed 3.45% 1.22 -0.02
30 Yr. Fixed 4.14% 1.32 -0.01
MBA **
30 Yr. Fixed 4.06% 0.38 -0.05
15 Yr. Fixed 3.34% 0.38 -0.02
30 Yr. Jumbo 3.96% 0.20 -0.04
30 Yr. FHA 3.98% 0.35 -0.04
5/1 ARM 3.14% 0.31 -0.12
Freddie Mac **
30 Yr. Fixed 3.99% 0.50 +0.04
15 Yr. Fixed 3.44% 0.50 +0.06
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.46% 0.40 +0.01
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
Secondary Markets
MBS
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 99.23 +0.05
30YR FNMA 3.5 101.95 +0.02
30YR GNMA 3.0 100.45 +0.02
30YR GNMA 3.5 102.98 0.00
15YR FNMA 3.0 101.27 -0.19
15YR FNMA 2.5 99.23 -0.16
Treasuries
Yield Change
2 YR 2.0183% +0.0166
5 YR 2.3517% +0.0001
10 YR 2.5371% -0.0127
30 YR 2.8262% -0.0261
Prices as of: 1/16/2018 4:57PM EST
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available.  We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender's rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.