30 Year Fixed
3.83%    -0.01
15 Year Fixed
3.41%    -0.01
10YR Treasury
1.77%    -0.0351
FNMA 30YR 3.5
102.30    +0.06
FNMA 15YR 2.5
102.05    +0.03
Mortgage Rates Recover Slightly
October 22, 2019

Mortgage rates recovered just a bit today after hitting the highest levels in more than a month yesterday.  The inspiration for much of the recent upward pressure on rates can be traced to progress in Britain's attempt to exit the European Union (aka "Brexit"). 

It's not that Brexit is bad for interest rates.  In fact, it's definitely been a positive influence off and on for nearly 4 years now.  Rather, it's the manner in which Brexit is accomplished that matters to global bond markets, and thus, to interest rates.  To be clear, European markets have seen the biggest effects, but there is some spillover in the US. 

The most important consideration at present is whether or not the UK will leave the EU with or without a deal.  A so-called "no deal" Brexit would be the better option for fans of low interest rates as the absence of the deal creates broader economic uncertainty.  Interest rates tend to fall in response to economic uncertainty.  

The likelihood of a "no deal" Brexit is slim, however.  It wasn't necessarily as slim a few weeks ago, and that's precisely why rates have moved up during that time.  If a deal looks like it's materializing, it would put upward pressure on rates, all other things being equal.  Of course all other things aren't equal. Brexit-related events have simply been in focus over the past 2 weeks.


Loan Originator Perspective

Bonds traded within tight ranges today, as Britain voted yet again on the Brexit process.  Still no clarity on exactly when/how that will happen.  With both DC impeachment and Brexit drama in headlines, it feels like we'd need a real bombshell to push rates down much here.  I'll continue to lock early on deals closing within 45 days.  -Ted Rood, Senior Originator


Today's Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED -3.75-3.875%
  • FHA/VA - 3.375-3.5%
  • 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.375-3.5% 
  • 5 YEAR ARMS -  3.25-3.75% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations 

  • 2019 has been the best year for mortgage rates since 2011.  Big, long-lasting improvements such as this one are increasingly susceptible to bounces/corrections 

  • Fed policy and the US/China trade war have been key players.  Major updates on either front could cause a volatile reaction in rates

  • The Fed and the bond market (which dictates rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad, as well as trade war updates. The stronger the data and trade relations, the more rates could rise, while weaker data and trade wars will lead to new long-term lows.  
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders.  The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable.  Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
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Today's Rates
Best Execution
Rate Change
30 Yr FRM 3.83% -0.01
15 Yr FRM 3.41% -0.01
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.42% +0.00
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.85% -0.01
5/1 Yr ARM 3.49% -0.01
Average Mortgage Rates
Rate Points Change
FHFA *
15 Yr. Fixed 3.79% 1.21 -0.12
30 Yr. Fixed 4.39% 1.12 -0.22
MBA **
30 Yr. Fixed 4.12% 0.38 +0.08
15 Yr. Fixed 3.48% 0.32 +0.06
30 Yr. Jumbo 4.07% 0.21 +0.04
30 Yr. FHA 4.01% 0.28 +0.04
5/1 ARM 3.58% 0.27 +0.02
Freddie Mac **
30 Yr. Fixed 3.69% 0.60 +0.12
15 Yr. Fixed 3.15% 0.50 +0.10
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.35% 0.40 +0.00
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
Secondary Markets
MBS
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 100.95 +0.09
30YR FNMA 3.5 102.30 +0.06
30YR GNMA 3.0 102.19 +0.06
30YR GNMA 3.5 103.58 +0.03
15YR FNMA 3.0 102.05 +0.03
15YR FNMA 2.5 100.63 +0.06
Treasuries
Yield Change
2 YR 1.6006% -0.0245
5 YR 1.5908% -0.0214
10 YR 1.7677% -0.0351
30 YR 2.2564% -0.0357
Prices as of: 10/22/2019 5:05PM EST
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month. Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available.  We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender's rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.