June 17, 2019
Mortgage rates were only modestly higher today. Most lenders were still quoting the same rates compared to Friday with the only difference being slightly higher upfront costs. This means the rate at the top of the average mortgage quote is still within striking distance of the lowest levels since September 2017.
Rather than focus on the journey that has already occurred for rates, it's quickly becoming important to focus on the path ahead. Reason being: rates have generally been flat for more than 2 weeks now. This is incredibly uncommon given the pace of improvements in the several weeks before that. With the Federal Reserve releasing a policy announcement and updated forecasts on Wednesday (both hotly anticipated by financial markets), it seems clear that the sideways momentum in rates is due to anticipation of a breakout.
A breakout (i.e. a sharp move higher or lower after a period of sideways consolidation) is never a guarantee, but we're increasingly likely to see one this week. The direction of the breakout would depend on what the Fed says.
Loan Originator Perspective
Rates slid slightly higher today, despite horrid manufacturing data from New York Fed. We're still close to the best levels since early 2018, with Wednesday's Fed Statement looming. I'm locking loans closing within 30 days. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 3.875-4.00%
- FHA/VA - 3.75%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.75-3.875%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 3.875-4.25% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- Early 2019 saw a rapid reevaluation of big-picture trends in rates and in markets in general
- The Federal Reserve has been a key player, and while they aren't the ones pulling the global economic strings, their response (and even their EXPECTED response) to the economy has helped rates fall more quickly than they otherwise might.
- Based on the Fed's laundry list of concerns, the bond market (which determines rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad, as well as trade-related concerns. The stronger the data and trade relations, the more rates could rise, while weaker data and trade wars will lead to new long-term lows.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.