6 Months to Build - What's the chance of seeing 4.0 again?


My wife and I are building a home with a closing date out 6 months. We can lock in now (@4.25%; with a cap of 4.5%) for 180 days to allow for the build, but we'd be charged 2 points. Will we see 4.0% again in the next six months? Will we see lower? Or will we see 5.0% by EOY? I'm aware it's always a gamble but I'm just looking for a few expert opinions.


2 Answers

Answer to your question depends on your risk tolerance and the US economy and global strife in areas such as Mideast and Ukraine. If America's economic growth wanes, or global mass drama unfolds, you MIGHT see the improvement you're targeting. Frankly, I'd be shocked to see improvements that take us to rates lower than the end of May, when we briefly neared 4% for "best execution" rates. Too much job growth, too few headlines of global strife. Just a personal opinion, but I'd put rising rates at a 30% chance, relatively stable rates at 50%, and dropping rates at 20%. Of course, I am not psychic, but the advice is guaranteed to be worth at least what it cost! Hope that helps, Ted ;)

I tend to agree with Ted here, though I wish I touted his psychic powers. LOL. With the economy rebounding, albeit slowly, it is doubtful that rates will drop. I do not expect them to rise much either. Count the total costs both ways including the cost of the points, interest, closing costs etc and figure it out over a 5 year holding period. You could use both a 4.5% and a 5.0% to get a true picture.