http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mbs Mortgage Rates Blog https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06082026 Mon, 08 Jun 2026 21:18:45 GMT 6a27404ca6791958c5fc5ba1 Matthew Graham Bonds Faded in the Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery Oil prices and bond yields started the overnight session higher, but both moved to the lows of the day just after 9:30am. From then on, oil went broadly sideways while bonds sold off gradually. If oil had instead moved higher into the afternoon, we might not care about the bond market weakness. But as it stands, we have bond-specific defensiveness in the afternoon replacing the modicum of bond-specific bullishness we noted in the morning commentary. Not the end of the world, but not ideal. Market Movement Recap 09:13 AM Sideways to slightly stronger. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.528 10:40 AM 10yr yields are up 2bps at 4.552 and MBS down 5 ticks (.16).  03:27 PM MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 2.3bps at 4.555. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06082026 Mon, 08 Jun 2026 13:57:39 GMT 6a26d92ca6791958c5fb8c55 Matthew Graham Things got a bit worse before they got better over the weekend. 10yr yields were as high as 4.58% in overnight trading, but are now roughly unchanged in early domestic trading. Oil prices mirrored the same movement overnight, but haven't recovered as much as bond yields. In fact, bonds arguably led the move lower with a gradual rally starting just after 5am ET. Most of the drop in oil prices followed news that Israel agreed to halt today's attacks in Lebanon. There is no big ticket econ data on tap. War headlines remain relevant as does the bond market's ongoing range-finding after Friday's rout. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06052026 Fri, 05 Jun 2026 20:42:40 GMT 6a234398a6791958c5f69c4f Matthew Graham At Least It Didn't Get Much Worse After The Initial Rout If you had to find something reassuring to say about the bond market today, it would be that there wasn't much selling after 9am ET. Unfortunately, there was a whole lot of selling in the prior 30 minutes. Try as they might, analysts couldn't find any obvious holes in the strong picture painted by the jobs report. Stocks got completely destroyed as well--evidence of the jump in Fed rate hike expectations adding to a tech correction that was already underway. An Iran war peace deal remains the biggest market moving prospect on the horizon, but traders will be a bit more interested in labor market data going forward. Econ Data / Events Non Farm Payrolls (May) 172K vs 85K f'cast, 115K prev Participation Rate (May) 61.8% vs -- f'cast, 61.8% prev Unemployment rate mm (May) 4.3% vs 4.3% f'cast, 4.3% prev Market Movement Recap 08:38 AM Big selling after jobs report. MBS down 3/8ths and 10yr up 5.7bps at 4.533 10:46 AM MBS down 18 ticks (.56) and 10yr up 6.5bps at 4.541 04:27 PM MBS down just over half a point and 10yr up 6.2bps at 4.539 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06052026 Fri, 05 Jun 2026 14:08:47 GMT 6a22e704a6791958c5f5e094 Matthew Graham Buzz has been growing around the labor market for the past several months, but today's jobs report went the extra mile to make it official. The job market is officially re-accelerating. Actually, the better claim would be that the jobs market is simply attempting to level off after a very long post-covid normalization. Most of today's charts show that quite well.  Payrolls surged to 172k vs an 85k forecast. The previous report was revised up to 179k from 115k. The unemployment rate held steady at a historically low 4.3% and dropped modestly on an unrounded basis. Volatility in the payroll count has been higher since Fall 2025. This is also apparent in the charts and it can be partially (maybe fully?) explained by the ongoing drop in survey response rates, both for consumers businesses (note the BLS data on response rates only runs through Jan/Feb). Meanwhile, the bond market left no doubt that it is more than willing to react to econ data if that data is important enough. 10yr yields are up 5.5bps instantly and MBS are down almost half a point. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06042026 Thu, 04 Jun 2026 20:12:53 GMT 6a21eb10a6791958c5f41cd5 Matthew Graham Modest Gains Maintained After Intraday Slippage Slippage is a bit less severe than leakage. Neither of them will turn a green day red, but they both erode morning gains. Today's gains primarily followed a pre-market comment from Trump who said the US was in the middle of final negotiations to end the Iran war. Bonds hit their best levels shortly thereafter and then the slippage set in. The backtracking was more evident in Treasuries with the 10yr losing almost half of the day-over-day gains. MBS managed to hold firmer, and were still broadly in line with the middle of the AM range by 4pm. Friday brings the jobs report. While it hasn't been as big of a flashpoint recently, we'd never rule out a reaction in the event of a big beat/miss. Econ Data / Events Jobless Claims (May)/30 225K vs 213K f'cast, 215K prev Market Movement Recap 08:42 AM Decently stronger overnight and no drama so far. MBS up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 4.1bps at 4.455 11:34 AM Sideways so far and just a hair weaker.  MBS still up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 3.1bps at 4.465 03:31 PM Treasuries near weakest levels but 10yr still down 2.5bps at 4.471. MBS still up 6 ticks (.19). Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06042026 Thu, 04 Jun 2026 13:14:33 GMT 6a2188a0a6791958c5f35605 Matthew Graham The following newswire hit about an hour before the open: TRUMP: US IN THE MIDDLE OF FINAL NEGOTIATIONS TO END IRAN WAR.  Bond yields and oil prices had already fallen modestly up to that point, but more than doubled the overnight rally after that. Yields are thus starting the day roughly 4bps lower, perfectly erasing the entirety of Wednesday's losses. Jobless Claims had no impact at 8:30am ET. An hour earlier, Challenger Layoffs possibly moved the needle microscopically, but it's just as likely that the ongoing drop in oil prices did the trick. There's no other big ticket data for the day, so we're headline watching and waiting for Friday's jobs report. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06032026 Wed, 03 Jun 2026 19:47:12 GMT 6a2093b4a6791958c5f19739 Matthew Graham Minimal Change After Overnight Volatility War headlines struck back in the overnight session. Specifically, Iran struck back against various U.S. and allied sites, allegedly in response to U.S. strikes on Iranian sites. Peace prospects take an obvious hit in response to these escalations and financial markets remain willing to react accordingly. Oil prices were already moving up to the highest levels in more than a week in the overnight session and that momentum peaked at 6am ET. Treasury yields followed and then stayed broadly sideways for the duration of the domestic session. In the bigger picture, 10s are well within the 4.43-4.51 range that dominated last week. War headline sensitivity continues accounting for 90% of forward-looking volatility risk while econ data rounds out the rest.  Econ Data / Events ADP jobs (May) 122K vs 117K f'cast, 109K prev ISM N-Mfg PMI (May) 54.5 vs 53.8 f'cast, 53.6 prev ISM Services Employment (May) 47.9 vs -- f'cast, 48.0 prev ISM Services New Orders (May) 57.3 vs -- f'cast, 53.5 prev ISM Services Prices (May) 71.3 vs -- f'cast, 70.7 prev Market Movement Recap 08:17 AM Moderately weaker overnight on renewed Iran war hostilities.  Not much reaction to ADP data. 10yr up 3.7bps at 4.49 and MBS down a quarter point 10:17 AM modest improvement after ISM data, but only in Treasuries. 10yr up 2.3bps at 4.476 and MBS still down a quarter point 11:45 AM weakest levels with MBS down 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr up 4.5bps at 4.498 02:37 PM Sideways at weaker levels. MBS down 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr up 3.6bps at 4.489 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06032026 Wed, 03 Jun 2026 13:13:31 GMT 6a203720a6791958c5f0dbf8 Matthew Graham Iran launched missiles at several U.S. allies yesterday afternoon and oil prices responded accordingly with a move back up to May 22nd levels. Treasury yields followed, but have generally been staying lower than the oil price correlation would suggest. 10yr yields continue holding a narrow range between 4.43 and 4.52. They're roughly 3.5bps higher to start the day at 4.485 and MBS are down a quarter point. ADP employment came out almost right on the screws and garnered no notable bond market response. At 10am ET, we'll get ISM Services, which is one of this week's few reports that might have enough of an impact to influence intraday bond market volatility that is otherwise taking most of its cues from the war. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06022026 Tue, 02 Jun 2026 20:59:01 GMT 6a1f529ca6791958c5ef444f Matthew Graham Uncommonly Uneventful Day No one will accuse us of clickbait titles today, or even clickbait analysis. There's just not much to say. Unlike the average trading day of late, bonds held inside a very narrow range AND didn't visibly respond to any major Iran war news (and the typical oil price volatility that follows). Oil prices definitely moved a bit, and bond yields generally followed, but the range was well inside yesterday's. For a few minutes, it looked like bonds were going to struggle with the job openings data, but they quickly found their footing and drifted sideways into the close. Market Movement Recap 09:36 AM Modestly stronger overnight but nearly unchanged now with MBS up only 1 tick (.03). 10yr down 1bp at 4.446 10:12 AM Some selling after JOLTS data, but stabilizing now. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down just over half a bp at 4.45 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06022026 Tue, 02 Jun 2026 14:49:39 GMT 6a1efbe4a6791958c5ee986b Matthew Graham We saw big ticket econ data move the needle a bit last week and have thus been prepared for this week's big ticket reports to have a similar chance to cause volatility. For a few moments this morning, that proved to be the case after job openings jumped by the highest amount since early 2021 and hit the highest levels since late 2025. In relative terms, it was the largest percent change since 2015 outside the initial pandemic whipsaw in 2020. Given those details, the initial selling of roughly 1bp in 10yr yields seems pretty mild (and it is). Moreover, bonds have already mostly bounced back to pre-data levels as they continue preferring to track oil prices. Some analysts are also pointing out that this JOLTS print could be an anomaly, driven by "professional and business services" that is likely to be revised lower (which could account for the market reversing its initial reaction). Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs