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Coming back a bit

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by Matthew Graham on April 07 2008, 5:39 PM

We've bounced off the lows of the day and have rallied back to nearly the levels when lenders released pricing. If you haven't locked yet, floating until further movement could make sense.
Reprice for The Worse Likely

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by Matthew Graham on April 07 2008, 4:40 PM

Continuing to slide bit by bit... Reprice of .125-.375 is likely.
At the lows of the day

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by Matthew Graham on April 07 2008, 3:27 PM

5.5% coupon is at 100-31, the low of the day. As the DJIA holds and/or progresses, there seems to be some selling pressure in MBS. Not necessarily time to panic yet, but it may be soon if we drop further. ** Update, we've dropped another 2/32nds or so...
MBS Worse To Open The Day, But Showing Some Resilience

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by Matthew Graham on April 07 2008, 1:03 PM

Friday was a very good day for MBS, so good in fact, that despite some losses this morning, we probably won't see a deterioration in rates unless lenders hedge their bets for the worse. The reason for this is that the improvement in rates on Friday lasted...
Another Good Friday!

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by Matthew Graham on April 04 2008, 2:11 PM

The big news we've all been waiting for, The Employment Situation report, was released this morning. Non-Farm payrolls dropped by 80,000 compared to analyst's consensus of a 50,000 drop. In addition, the unemployment rate read 0.1% higher than expected...
selling off a bit

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by Matthew Graham on April 03 2008, 7:28 PM

we're off our highs of the day. Some lenders, depending on how aggressive they priced today, may be repricing for the worse.
Doing Well

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by Matthew Graham on April 03 2008, 2:54 PM

The selling has turned around and we're up about 10/32nds on the day. Keep floating.
ISM data in at 49.6, slightly higher than expected

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by Matthew Graham on April 03 2008, 2:02 PM

Looks like MBS doesn't like it as this is .6% higher than expected. We've dropped about 4/32nds since the announcement, but will possibly not sell off much more than that. Rates should be out slightly better than yesterday, but stay tuned.
Jobless Claims Surge to 407k. 38k Higher Than Expected

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by Matthew Graham on April 03 2008, 12:36 PM

These are pretty rough numbers for Jobless Claims. This far exceeded even the highest expectations by analysts. The MBS market is not reacting much to the news right now, but it would not be likely to hurt our pricing. In general, reports like this help...
Pre-Open Trading + Data on Tap

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by Matthew Graham on April 03 2008, 12:05 PM

After a decent rally yesterday afternoon, today and tomorrow bring some more important data. Here's what's on tap for today as far as the scheduled economic releases: Jobless Claims. Analysts are predicting this to come in anywhere from 360k to 386k,...
MBS not holding so steady

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by Matthew Graham on April 02 2008, 2:26 PM

we've dropped 4/32nds in the past 3 minutes. Potential reprices for the worse from lenders that set pricing early. Not a certainty or even a strong probability at this point unless these levels fail to rally. Keep in mind that this will cause many lenders...
Factory Orders in Worse Than Expected

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by Matthew Graham on April 02 2008, 2:04 PM

There we go! Finally some negative data to help the MBS market. The report read at =1.8%, a pretty significant margin over the consensus of -0.6%. Also, Bernanke is testifying currently. No surprises yet, but he is just now getting into the Bear Stearns...
The Bulls Keep At It.

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by Matthew Graham on April 02 2008, 1:21 PM

The data this morning, though not outright damaging to MBS is also not of any help. ADP's employment report came in at a reading of 8000 jobs on the upside. Historically, if ADP happens to accurately predict the actual employment data that follows 2 days...
Bit of a Sell Off

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by Matthew Graham on April 01 2008, 3:00 PM

On some breaking news on Fed Policy expectations we've sold off about 6/32nds in the 5.5% coupon, down about 16/32nds on the day so far. If your rate sheet was already released, and you're anything less than half a point worse, locking now is a good idea...
ISM just a touch higher than expected, Construction Spending beats expectations

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by Matthew Graham on April 01 2008, 2:10 PM

So far, not a very happy morning for the bond market, unless you care about the fact that MBS are performing significantly better than treasuries. The UBS and Lehman news is fueling a stock rally. The higher it goes today, the more it will hurt bonds...

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