Yesterday's most notable accomplishment for the bond market was the breakout of the prevailing consolidation range (aka "pennant," to use a technical term).  We might have hesitated to read anything into this had it not been for elevated volume and the fact that it was data-driven (Consumer Price Index).  We still might hesitate to read too much into it considering next week's Fed announcement stands the best chance of setting the tone in the medium term, but for now, it's fair to consider whether we're seeing evidence that bonds can maintain more of a sideways range as opposed to the previous "sideways-to-slightly-weaker" momentum.

20210915 open2.png

20210915 open1.png

Bonds are under a bit of pressure to start the day.  After hitting 1.260% lows early in the domestic session, 10yr yields are up near the 1.30% technical level.  MBS are outperforming--likely due to the Treasury-specific price pressures (EU bond market weakness and corporate issuance).  Case in point, here's the relative 2-day move in German Bunds vs 10yr US yields.

20210915 open3.png


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.0
101-11 : -0-01
Treasuries
10 YR
1.2940 : +0.0150
Pricing as of 9/15/21 9:57AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Sep 15
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 258.4
7:00 MBA Refi Index w/e 3292.1
8:30 Import prices mm (%) Aug 0.3 0.3
8:30 Export prices mm (%) Aug 0.4 1.3
8:30 NY Fed Manufacturing Sep 18.00 18.30
9:15 Industrial Production (%) Aug 0.4 0.9