Last week's theme was simple: sell bonds until hearing what Fed Chair Powell had to say in his Jackson Hole speech, then buy bonds when Powell simply reiterated his previous stance.  Some of that buying has carried over into the new week, but the broader sideways trend remains. 

Markets are now free to do what Powell told them to do: focus on the economic data for additional confirmation about "substantial further progress.  As far as the Fed is concerned, it's really only the labor market that needs to improve in order to meet tapering goals.  This is an informative week in that regard, mainly due to Friday's jobs report (aka NFP or "non-farm payrolls).

In terms of measuring progress, bonds have operated reliably in the same range since the last jobs report (see the chart below) with several ceiling bounces at 1.37+ and an entire week of floor bounces at 1.22+.  Conveniently enough, the current week begins with yields right in the middle of those two boundaries.

20210830 open1.png


MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
MBS
UMBS 2.0
101-16 : +0-04
Treasuries
10 YR
1.2900 : -0.0220
Pricing as of 8/30/21 11:31AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Monday, Aug 30
10:00 Pending Sales Index Jul 112.8
10:00 Pending Home Sales (%) Jul 0.4 -1.9
Tuesday, Aug 31
9:00 Monthly Home Price yy (%) Jun 18.0
9:00 CaseShiller 20 yy (% ) Jun 18.5 17.0
9:00 Monthly Home Price mm (%) Jun 1.7
9:45 Chicago PMI * Aug 68.0 73.4
10:00 Consumer confidence * Aug 124.0 129.1
Wednesday, Sep 01
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 257.5
7:00 MBA Refi Index w/e 3520.7
8:15 ADP National Employment (k)* Aug 625 330
10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI * Aug 58.7 59.5
10:00 Construction spending (%) Jul 0.2 0.1
Thursday, Sep 02
7:30 Challenger layoffs (k) Aug 18.942
8:30 International trade mm $ (bl) Jul -71.0 -75.7
8:30 Continued Claims (ml) w/e 2.775 2.862
8:30 Jobless Claims (k) w/e 345 353
10:00 Factory orders mm (%) Jul 0.4 1.5
Friday, Sep 03
8:30 Non-farm payrolls (k)* Aug 750 943
8:30 Unemployment rate mm (%)* Aug 5.2 5.4
10:00 ISM N-Mfg PMI * Aug 61.8 64.1