Although the week began in forgettable fashion, Tuesday saw yields move up at a moderate pace with no overt provocation. Indeed a quick glance at the 5-day candlestick chart leaves one with the impression that bonds simply targeted the 1.30% technical level and set their selling programs on cruise control. 

20210825 open.png

While it's early yet, yields are trying to challenge that ceiling to start the day.  Breaking above wouldn't be the end of the world as rates are still better described as "broadly sideways at long-term lows."  While that range may come under pressure in the run up to Friday's Powell speech, it's next week's trading that matters more.   If 1.30% is clearly defeated, the next line in the sand would be 1.37%.  

20210825 open2.png

Today's key events include Durable Goods at 8:30am and the 5yr Treasury auction at 1pm.  The latter has a greater capacity to inform momentum, but if stats are close to average, it could just as easily pass without a trace.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
UMBS 2.0
101-07 : -0-02
10 YR
1.3050 : +0.0150
Pricing as of 8/25/21 8:06AMEST

Tomorrow's Economic Calendar
Time Event Period Forecast Prior
Wednesday, Aug 25
7:00 MBA Refi Index w/e 3490.2
7:00 MBA Purchase Index w/e 249.9
8:30 Durable goods (%)* Jul -0.3 0.9
8:30 Core CapEx (%)* Jul 0.5 0.7
13:00 5-Yr Note Auction (bl)* 61