This week saw a tentative prodding of range boundaries--both long term and short term--following last week's Employment Situation Report. Wednesday's FOMC Announcement kicked off the weakness, and was the first real opportunity we had to observe anything apart from a boring sideways grind. Unfortunately, the monotony was broken with a move higher in yields and lower for MBS Prices.
The monotony remained unbroken in unfriendly ways for the next two sessions. The regional Chicago ISM data was eye-wateringly strong. Some have taken exception to this, but it is what it is, and market participants are big enough boys and girls to know that the regional data can deviate greatly from the national data--a fact we pointed out in this morning's charts
The fact is that the underlying technicals were already bearish even before that data--a fact that we pointed out in yesterday's charts
. Because of that, Chicago PMI didn't move markets because it was so amazingly higher than expected. Rather, it moved markets because it endorsed the direction that markets were already most likely to move.
Today's National level ISM data did the same. It wasn't about the size of the beat, just the fact that it was enough of a beat to connote selling in bond markets. From there, technicals took over and yields retreated PRECISELY to the mid-point of their last two major technical levels--nimble position from which to approach next week's NFP.
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
Pricing as of 4:05 PM EST
Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts
and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers
MBS Lose a Quick Eighth; Negative Reprice Risk
Negative reprices are a more developed risk as MBS just shed a quick eighth of a point. This brings Fannie 3.5s down 15 ticks in total to 102-01. 10yr yields moved up to 2.611 at the same time, an unpleasant 6.7bps higher on the day.
These losses bring more lenders into reprice risk territory. Some may have put out initial rate sheets that were defensive enough to avoid it, but for others, it's becoming more likely.
Live Chat Featured Comments
Matthew Graham : "rock on"
Joe Daquino : "NO....you rock, MG."
Matthew Graham : "you rock JD. "
Joe Daquino : "You can get the charts and more technical information on the initial article published in the morning..."The Day Ahead.""
Joe Daquino : "I send out a co branded market update everyday to referral partners and clients. They love it. MND rocks!!!"
Ted Rood : "Seriously, sending out cobranded MND stuff has helped me with multiple referral partners and clients."
Matthew Graham : "example of that from last week: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/reports/weekly_mortgage_rates/"
Matthew Graham : "there will be a week-end summary that includes a chart of mortgage rates this afternoon"
Gus Floropoulos : "REPRICE: 2:38 PM - PHH Worse"
Roland Wilcox : "REPRICE: 2:36 PM - USBank Worse"
Curt Sandfort : "craig, go to advanced charts tab"
Craig Stanislaw : "Question... I am working on an email campaign to realtors and am looking for some good articles/charts to send out about current market conditions. Is there a spot on the site that has charts Ect. that could be emialed? If not is there a good site that others are using. Thanks for your help! "
Matthew Graham : "here ya go http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/329396.aspx"
Matthew Graham : "AP, if you step back a bit, there are only a few big ones. It was a real 'coulda had a v8' moment when I finally did that. I'll find the chart, just sec."
Caroline Roy : "30 with most of our investors i believe "
Edie Clark : "LP Open Access...how many days of interest can be included in new loan amount?"
Andy Pada : "the last 6 months have been a mataphorical zen garden with multiple lines in the sand that have been cleared and recreated with each economic data report"
Matthew Graham : "short term technicals have been bearish for a while AR. They haven't quite run their course yet, so the assumption is that it leaves some room to run higher before NFP either accelerates or rejects that short term trend. Caveat if it's needed: technicals sometimes don't mean squat."
John Rodgers : "damage is done at this point. If we go thru 2.62 then I would lock"
Andrew Russell : "I understand what you are saying, was just curious as to the sentiment for Monday Tuesday, small recovery or flat, or potential losses"
Andrew Russell : "me personally, no, based on my age and risk tolerance, I am more asking where my "bros" feel the market will go on Monday/Tuesday, for instance, do the good "bros" see a small bounceback?"