We've been waiting for tomorrow, specifically, for nearly 4 months. Competing reactions to the key components in the FOMC data make for an utterly tempestuous day. It stands to reason, then, that today was anything but. This isn't uncommon behavior for bond markets heading in to things like the FOMC Announcement or other events with major market moving potential.
This time around, the stakes (and the uncertainty) are even higher, and the sideways indecision has been even more drawn out. For instance, rates today are in line with those seen in mid August. We've moved down and up from those levels since then, but are clearly heading into the FOMC right on top of the 1-month average. We got there yesterday, and thus didn't have much to do when today rolled around. Tomorrow's announcement is at 2pm, along with the updated forecasts from FOMC members, followed by Bernanke's press conference at 2:30pm Eastern. Live play-by-play, as always, on the MBS Live Dashboard
MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing
is available via MBS Live.
Pricing as of 4:08 PM EST
Afternoon Reprice Alerts and Updates
Below is a recap of instant Reprice Alerts
and updates issued via email and text alert to MBS Live subscribers
MBS Off Lows; Reprice Risk Wanes
MBS and Treasuries hit their weakest levels of the day into the 10:15am Fed buying operation in 30yr bonds. Volume has been lighter and has facilitated easier movement.
After holding near weaker levels for the past hour, both MBS and Treasuries improved, heading back into the safety of the morning range. For Fannie 4.0s, this is 2 ticks higher on the day at 102-30 and 10yr yields are 1.6 bps lower on the day at 2.8458--right in line with the first morning update.
This move greatly mitigates negative reprice risk that had been increasing earlier.
Live Chat Featured Comments
Rob Clark : "REPRICE: 2:01 PM - Interbank Better"
Christopher Max : "Thanks everyone for your input. Greatly appreciated"
John McClellan : "80002 - TD Ratio Exceeds Maximum Authorized: Loan is INELIGIBLE. The total debt ratio exceeds maximum authorized ratios. The Agency will not consider a ratio waiver. "
John McClellan : "had a coupl lately with good scores and the front end ratio would not go past 29.99"
Jeff Statz : "yep, good thinking John. I'll ask about funding"
John McClellan : "USDA is also getting VERY tight on front end (29) and back end ratios...very tight"
John McClellan : "GUS is tricky...i limit who can run them as after 5 you get a full UW alert"
Christopher Max : "The bank just sent us the findings and it was in fact ineligible at 33/33 ratios. I assume they are much tougher then on ratios for under 640 unlike FHA. "
Clayton Sandy : "Usually only processors, u/w run GUS. At least in my experience. You don't have the ability to run it as many times as you do DU. Pretty sure you're limited to 5 runs"
Jeff Statz : "not exactly sure, but I've yet to hear LO's aren't supposed to run GUS. hodges is usually a credible source though, so I'll ask."
Matt Hodges : "i don't think LOs are permitted by USDA to run GUS"