How many times must we go through the same motions surrounding the various bailout/solvency/reform issues in Greece? Granted, things are just slightly different each time, but the aspects of "seemingly urgent decisions required" as well as "certain deadlines needing to be hit" or else face the consequences of "almost certain Greek default and probable exit from the Eurozone" feel like they've been present in each iteration of the broader situation that we refer to as "Greek Drama."
After all the sturm and drang of the most recent installment of Greece bailout drama, and even after several Eurozone officials said today in several different ways that said drama was resolved, we now have several other Eurozone officials saying that, while the drama is resolved, it actually, possibly, maybe isn't totally and completely resolved as we thought, and that now the real date by which the world can expect the next, dare we say, "resolution," is NEXT WEDNESDAY!
Today's big meeting was a Eurogroup get together, which includes finance ministers from member stats as well as Eurogroup officials including president Jean-Claude Juncker. Here's what he had to say late Thursday.
To paraphrase: "sorry folks, not quite there, but if Greece gives us some assurances, then we're good. Oh, and the private sector haircuts have to be agreed-upon, but we're pretty confident that will work out fine, and then we'll meet back up here next Wednesday to see if we can ink this damn deal." Admittedly those were my words as I heard them in my head whilst reading Juncker's wires.
To reiterate a previous stance we've taken. We only pay attention to this stuff because markets seem to be paying some degree of attention to it, and we acknowledge, respect, and understand that savvy market participants react to Greek headlines only because other market participants react to it, but very likely are just as weary of this frustratingly repetitive farce as most of the rest of us are. Swim against the wave or ride it until the tide turns, easier to ride the wave for now, as odious as that may be.
Speaking of tides turning, bond markets have done much by way of bouncing back so far this morning and in the overnight session. 10's are back down to 1.975 and March coupon Fannie 3.5's are set to open 5 ticks higher at 103-15. Stocks shot lower with similar determination as the S&P is off almost 15 points at the moment. It all just looks like a broad-based unwinding of whatever optimism was created by Greece's negotiations. Are we doomed to relive all of this next week? Anyone seen Punxsutawney Phil?
Data today includes the week's headliner from a domestic economic perspective in the form of International Trade at 8:30am, expected to show just a slightly bigger deficit than last month's -47.8 bln, (forecast: -48.3 bln). Then there's Reuters/U.Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 9:55am, seen at 74.0 vs last month's 75.0. Bernanke speaks at 12:30 on housing and FOMC voter Pianalto on the same topic at 2pm.
Period
Unit
Actual
Forecast
Prior
Monday, February 06
No Significant Scheduled Economic Data
Tuesday, February 07
13:00
3-Yr Note Auction
--
bl
32.0
15:00
Consumer credit
Dec
19.31
7.2
20.37
Wednesday, February 08
07:00
Mortgage market index
w/e
810.0
753.3
Mortgage market: change
%
7.5
-2.9
MBA Purchase Index
181.9
181.7
Mortgage refinance index
4500.7
4113.8
Refinancing: change
9.4
-3.6
MBA Purchase: change
0.1
-1.7
MBA 30-yr mortgage rate
4.09
10-yr Note Auction
24.0
Thursday, February 09
08:30
Initial Jobless Claims
k
358
370
367
Continued jobless claims
ml
3.515
3.500
3.437
10:00
Wholesale inventories mm
+1.0
0.4
Wholesale sales mm
+1.3
0.5
0.6
30-Yr Bond Auction
16.0
Friday, February 10
International trade mm $
-48.3
-47.8
09:55
U.Mich sentiment
Feb
74.0
75.0
U Mich conditions
84.2
U.Mich expectation
69.1
14:00
Federal budget, $
Jan
-50.0
-85.97
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