How many times must we go through the same motions surrounding the
various bailout/solvency/reform issues in Greece? Granted, things are
just slightly different each time, but the aspects of "seemingly urgent
decisions required" as well as "certain deadlines needing to be hit" or
else face the consequences of "almost certain Greek default and probable
exit from the Eurozone" feel like they've been present in each
iteration of the broader situation that we refer to as "Greek Drama."
After all the sturm and drang of the most recent installment of
Greece bailout drama, and even after several Eurozone officials said
today in several different ways that said drama was resolved, we now
have several other Eurozone officials saying that, while the drama is
resolved, it actually, possibly, maybe isn't totally and completely
resolved as we thought, and that now the real date by which the world
can expect the next, dare we say, "resolution," is NEXT WEDNESDAY!
Today's big meeting was a Eurogroup get together, which includes
finance ministers from member stats as well as Eurogroup officials
including president Jean-Claude Juncker. Here's what he had to say late
Thursday.
- RTRS - EUROGROUP'S JUNCKER SAYS NEW GREEK
BAILOUT MUST RESPECT OCT SUMMIT PARAMETERS
- RTRS - JUNCKER SAYS GREEK DEBT
SHOULD BE REDUCED TO 120 PCT/GDP BY 2020
- RTRS - JUNCKER SAYS NOT ALL
NECESSARY ELEMENTS ON THE TABLE TO TAKE DECISION ON SECOND BAILOUT FOR
GREECE ON THURSDAY
- RTRS - JUNCKER SAYS GREEK PARLIAMENT
MUST TAKE DECISIONS FIRST
- RTRS - JUNCKER SAYS EURO ZONE MUST
GET ASSURANCES FROM GREECE ON REFORM IMPLEMENTATION
- RTRS - JUNCKER SAYS SUCCESSFUL PSI
IN GREECE IS A MUST FOR A SECOND GREEK BAILOUT
- RTRS - JUNCKER SAYS EURO ZONE
MINISTERS WILL MEET ON WEDNESDAY AGAIN, IF GREECE MEETS CONDITIONS ON
SECOND BAILOUT
- RTRS - JUNCKER SAYS ANY MONEY FROM
EURO ZONE FOR GREEK PSI WILL BE SUBJECT TO IMPLEMENTATION BY ATHENS OF
PRIOR ACTIONS
- RTRS - JUNCKER SAYS GREEK PARLIAMENT WILL NOT REJECT THE AGREED REFORM
To paraphrase: "sorry folks, not quite there,
but if Greece gives us some assurances, then we're good. Oh, and the
private sector haircuts have to be agreed-upon, but we're pretty
confident that will work out fine, and then we'll meet back up here
next Wednesday to see if we can ink this damn deal." Admittedly those
were my words as I heard them in my head whilst reading Juncker's wires.
To reiterate a previous stance we've taken. We only pay attention to
this stuff because markets seem to be paying some degree of attention
to it, and we acknowledge, respect, and understand that savvy market
participants react to Greek headlines only because other market
participants react to it, but very likely are just as weary of this
frustratingly repetitive farce as most of the rest of us are. Swim
against the wave or ride it until the tide turns, easier to ride the
wave for now, as odious as that may be.
Speaking of tides turning, bond markets have done much by way of bouncing back so far this morning and in the overnight session. 10's are back down to 1.975 and March coupon Fannie 3.5's are set to open 5 ticks higher at 103-15. Stocks shot lower with similar determination as the S&P is off almost 15 points at the moment. It all just looks like a broad-based unwinding of whatever optimism was created by Greece's negotiations. Are we doomed to relive all of this next week? Anyone seen Punxsutawney Phil?
Data today includes the week's headliner from a domestic economic
perspective in the form of International Trade at 8:30am, expected to
show just a slightly bigger deficit than last month's -47.8 bln,
(forecast: -48.3 bln). Then there's Reuters/U.Michigan Consumer
Sentiment at 9:55am, seen at 74.0 vs last month's 75.0. Bernanke speaks
at 12:30 on housing and FOMC voter Pianalto on the same topic at 2pm.
|
|
Period
|
Unit
|
Actual
|
Forecast
|
Prior
|
|
Monday, February 06
|
|
|
|
No Significant
Scheduled Economic Data
|
|
Tuesday, February 07
|
|
|
|
13:00
|
3-Yr Note Auction
|
--
|
bl
|
--
|
32.0
|
--
|
|
15:00
|
Consumer credit
|
Dec
|
bl
|
19.31
|
7.2
|
20.37
|
|
Wednesday, February 08
|
|
|
|
07:00
|
Mortgage market index
|
w/e
|
--
|
810.0
|
|
753.3
|
|
07:00
|
Mortgage market: change
|
w/e
|
%
|
7.5
|
|
-2.9
|
|
07:00
|
MBA Purchase Index
|
w/e
|
--
|
181.9
|
|
181.7
|
|
07:00
|
Mortgage refinance
index
|
w/e
|
--
|
4500.7
|
|
4113.8
|
|
07:00
|
Refinancing: change
|
w/e
|
%
|
9.4
|
|
-3.6
|
|
07:00
|
MBA Purchase: change
|
w/e
|
%
|
0.1
|
|
-1.7
|
|
07:00
|
MBA 30-yr mortgage rate
|
w/e
|
%
|
4.05 |
|
4.09
|
|
13:00
|
10-yr Note Auction
|
--
|
bl
|
--
|
24.0
|
--
|
|
Thursday, February 09
|
|
|
|
08:30
|
Initial Jobless Claims
|
w/e
|
k
|
358
|
370
|
367
|
|
08:30
|
Continued jobless
claims
|
w/e
|
ml
|
3.515
|
3.500
|
3.437
|
|
10:00
|
Wholesale inventories
mm
|
Dec
|
%
|
+1.0
|
0.4
|
0.1
|
|
10:00
|
Wholesale sales mm
|
Dec
|
%
|
+1.3
|
0.5
|
0.6
|
|
13:00
|
30-Yr Bond Auction
|
--
|
bl
|
--
|
16.0
|
--
|
|
Friday, February 10
|
|
|
|
08:30
|
International trade mm
$
|
Dec
|
bl
|
--
|
-48.3
|
-47.8
|
|
09:55
|
U.Mich sentiment
|
Feb
|
--
|
--
|
74.0
|
75.0
|
|
09:55
|
U Mich conditions
|
Feb
|
--
|
--
|
84.2
|
84.2
|
|
09:55
|
U.Mich expectation
|
Feb
|
--
|
--
|
69.1
|
69.1
|
|
14:00
|
Federal budget, $
|
Jan
|
bl
|
--
|
-50.0
|
-85.97
|