How many times must we go through the same motions surrounding the various bailout/solvency/reform issues in Greece?  Granted, things are just slightly different each time, but the aspects of "seemingly urgent decisions required" as well as "certain deadlines needing to be hit" or else face the consequences of "almost certain Greek default and probable exit from the Eurozone" feel like they've been present in each iteration of the broader situation that we refer to as "Greek Drama."

After all the sturm and drang of the most recent installment of Greece bailout drama, and even after several Eurozone officials said today in several different ways that said drama was resolved, we now have several other Eurozone officials saying that, while the drama is resolved, it actually, possibly, maybe isn't totally and completely resolved as we thought, and that now the real date by which the world can expect the next, dare we say, "resolution," is NEXT WEDNESDAY!

Today's big meeting was a Eurogroup get together, which includes finance ministers from member stats as well as Eurogroup officials including president Jean-Claude Juncker.  Here's what he had to say late Thursday.

  • RTRS - EUROGROUP'S JUNCKER SAYS NEW GREEK BAILOUT MUST RESPECT OCT SUMMIT PARAMETERS
  • RTRS - JUNCKER SAYS GREEK DEBT SHOULD BE REDUCED TO 120 PCT/GDP BY 2020
  • RTRS - JUNCKER SAYS NOT ALL NECESSARY ELEMENTS ON THE TABLE TO TAKE DECISION ON SECOND BAILOUT FOR GREECE ON THURSDAY
  • RTRS - JUNCKER SAYS GREEK PARLIAMENT MUST TAKE DECISIONS FIRST
  • RTRS - JUNCKER SAYS EURO ZONE MUST GET ASSURANCES FROM GREECE ON REFORM IMPLEMENTATION
  • RTRS - JUNCKER SAYS SUCCESSFUL PSI IN GREECE IS A MUST FOR A SECOND GREEK BAILOUT
  • RTRS - JUNCKER SAYS EURO ZONE MINISTERS WILL MEET ON WEDNESDAY AGAIN, IF GREECE MEETS CONDITIONS ON SECOND BAILOUT
  • RTRS - JUNCKER SAYS ANY MONEY FROM EURO ZONE FOR GREEK PSI WILL BE SUBJECT TO IMPLEMENTATION BY ATHENS OF PRIOR ACTIONS
  • RTRS - JUNCKER SAYS GREEK PARLIAMENT WILL NOT REJECT THE AGREED REFORM

To paraphrase: "sorry folks, not quite there, but if Greece gives us some assurances, then we're good.  Oh, and the private sector haircuts have to be agreed-upon, but we're pretty confident that will work out fine, and then we'll meet back up here next Wednesday to see if we can ink this damn deal."  Admittedly those were my words as I heard them in my head whilst reading Juncker's wires.

To reiterate a previous stance we've taken.  We only pay attention to this stuff because markets seem to be paying some degree of attention to it, and we acknowledge, respect, and understand that savvy market participants react to Greek headlines only because other market participants react to it, but very likely are just as weary of this frustratingly repetitive farce as most of the rest of us are.  Swim against the wave or ride it until the tide turns, easier to ride the wave for now, as odious as that may be.  

Speaking of tides turning, bond markets have done much by way of bouncing back so far this morning and in the overnight session.  10's are back down to 1.975 and March coupon Fannie 3.5's are set to open 5 ticks higher at 103-15.  Stocks shot lower with similar determination as the S&P is off almost 15 points at the moment.  It all just looks like a broad-based unwinding of whatever optimism was created by Greece's negotiations.  Are we doomed to relive all of this next week?  Anyone seen Punxsutawney Phil?  

Data today includes the week's headliner from a domestic economic perspective in the form of International Trade at 8:30am, expected to show just a slightly bigger deficit than last month's -47.8 bln, (forecast: -48.3 bln).  Then there's Reuters/U.Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 9:55am, seen at 74.0 vs last month's 75.0.  Bernanke speaks at 12:30 on housing and FOMC voter Pianalto on the same topic at 2pm.  



Period

Unit

Actual

Forecast

Prior

Monday, February 06


 


No Significant Scheduled Economic Data

Tuesday, February 07


 

13:00

3-Yr Note Auction

--

bl

--

32.0

--

15:00

Consumer credit

Dec

bl

19.31

7.2

20.37

Wednesday, February 08


 

07:00

Mortgage market index

w/e

--

810.0

 

753.3

07:00

Mortgage market: change

w/e

%

7.5

 

-2.9

07:00

MBA Purchase Index

w/e

--

181.9

 

181.7

07:00

Mortgage refinance index

w/e

--

4500.7

 

4113.8

07:00

Refinancing: change

w/e

%

9.4

 

     -3.6

07:00

MBA Purchase: change

w/e

%

0.1

 

-1.7

07:00

MBA 30-yr mortgage rate

w/e

%

        4.05

 

4.09

13:00

10-yr Note Auction

--

bl

--

24.0

--

Thursday, February 09


 

08:30

Initial Jobless Claims

w/e

k

358

370

367

08:30

Continued jobless claims

w/e

ml

3.515

3.500

3.437

10:00

Wholesale inventories mm

Dec

%

+1.0

0.4

0.1

10:00

Wholesale sales mm

Dec

%

+1.3

0.5

0.6

13:00

30-Yr Bond Auction

--

bl

--

16.0

--

Friday, February 10


 

08:30

International trade mm $

Dec

bl

--

-48.3

-47.8

09:55

U.Mich sentiment

Feb

--

--

74.0

75.0

09:55

U Mich conditions

Feb

--

--

84.2

84.2

09:55

U.Mich expectation

Feb

--

--

69.1

69.1

14:00

Federal budget, $

Jan

bl

--

-50.0

-85.97