No End In Sight To Commercial Real Estate Financing Crisis.

The commercial real estate crisis continues and it is proving to be more devastating to banks than the residential sub-prime crisis that sparked the financial meltdown in 2008. The Financial Post reported that US banks have been charging off (effectively assigning to the write-off bin) their commercial real estate loans at the fastest pace in since the late 1980s.  Bloomberg reported that forty-seven percent of loans at the 7,000-plus smaller U.S. lenders are in commercial real estate, compared with 17 percent for the biggest banks.

The majority of bank failures this year have been a result of commercial real estate losses and the number of regional banks that will fail in the coming quarters will increase. "Commercial real estate in the United States of America is going to get worse consistently over the next several quarters," said Jamie Dimon, CEO of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., last month when he discussed his company's earnings.

The government will eventually attempt to solve the crisis by passing laws circumventing existing commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) servicing agreements and offer incentives to servicers as they do now for modifying residential loans. This will cause a tremendous loss of confidence among investors and cause more declines in CMBS values, bank write downs and failures.

Last quarter banks showed improved earning mostly because of free money from the Fed, trading profits and accounting changes. This will prove to be short term as the economic stimulus wares down and the inevitable change in monetary policy forces interest rates up.