How do I calculate wether it makes sense to roll all or some of my refinances costs into my loan?

I would love to save the cash upfront, but I don't want to make a mistake.

These are the rates I have available:
4.75% @ 0 pts.
4.5% @ .75pts
4.375% @ 1.25 pts.
Fees on top of that = $4,100.

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Goal: Lower monthly payments
Mortgage: 30yr fixed at 5.875%.  Owe $288k.  Mo payment: $1835. 
LTV:  75%
Credit: High-700s
Location: NJ
Plan: Stay in the house for at least 5 years 

Are those par rates (include 1% orig?)

I think it would depend on how much cash you will have or want at the end. If you can afford to pay the points upfront, I would. If you would feel more comfortable having the extra cash then it might be worth paying the interest on it. I'm no pro but that's what I think.

I have the cash, but I would like to keep it for other uses, ideally.

These rates do not have origination fees.

If rolling in the closing costs doesn't put you over the next 5% threshold in LTV (move you from say 74% to 76%) that would increase your rate or closing costs, then you need to consider 2 things:

1. Do you have reserves to cover 6-12 months of your household expenses that is liquid.
2. Could you earn a rate of return greater than the rate of interest on the mortgage.

My assumption is that rolling them in would not put me over the next threshold.

Other answers:
1. Yes, I have these reserves for at least 10 months

2. There would be no return: I would be spending the cash not used on the refinance costs to make some minor home improvements.  I would not be able to make these improvements if I spend the cash on the refi costs, becuase then I would be dipping into my cash reserves a bit more than I would feel comfortable.

Bottom line: I hate the thought of increasing my debt even a little, at the same time I would ideally like to use the cash I would spend on refi costs in another way.

Given that, it sounds like a good decision to roll those costs in...

Borrowing doesn't get much cheaper than 4+%...personally, I would roll it in as long as it does not negatively impact your loan..

I used to recommend paying your prepaids/reserves/escrows (taxes & insurance, and odd interest) out of pocket, as ultimately you will be reimbursed those funds from your current lender and you will skip a monthly payment on the new loan to make up for the odd interest...