I sure am.

I am turning blue as well.

I think too many are thinking the recovery is going to come to us fast and furious.  This may be the reason we saw the dow spike quickly.  While I believe there are signs that things are getting better (in that they are getting less worse), we have a long way to go and it won't be an easy road to travel.

I agree, Kent.  I don't think the economy is improving much yet.  More like the bleeding has stopped (for now) and now it has to be put in intensive care to be observed and hopefully recover.  It's still going to remain in a coma until the housing market recovers.  It feels like an episode of House doesn't it?  They're going to try 12 different things and then after almost killing the patient, will finally realize that it was housing all along!!!  Just imagine how much money is going to be flowing through the economy once some of this overstock of houses finally start getting sold.  

Well, the FOMC anticipation is over and it was quite a snoozer. They said everything that was expected and the market reacted almost completely neutral. No magic wand and no bullets in the gun.

It's official. The future of "what happens next" is completely up in the air. The markets will digest each economic release and react accordingly. This is going to be a long summer for mortgage pro's, home buyers, and refinancers.

Lock the dips and float the peaks....

Thought it was interesting that a quick snippet in WSJ is labeling a new type of economic recovery - just as you have a U, V, L, or a W shaped recovery, some economists are now using a WWW to label a more protracted recovery with multiple dips along the way...

Summer breeze, winter will be hard as unemployment exceeds 10%

Anyone have some thoughts on where we are headed? The huge 3 week equity rally has pretty much hit the brakes. Enought doubt was cast with the recent retail and consumer sentiment numbers. Equities should certainly be above the worst case discount we had back in March but I think traders will quickly realize that stocks went from cheap to expensive in a hurry. Somewhere in between is more likely a fair value.

July's and early August's ecomonic data may end up being the best of the year. The next earnings season will likely show that top-line earnings growth will not meet expectations. Without growth in the top-line, we cannot expect extensive hiring and business re-investment. The consumer is not yet in a position to juice up their 2/3rds of the economy either. I'm not a pessimist or a doom and gloomer by any stretch. We will rebound economically and get back on track in the future. It just isn't going to happen as quickly as recent equity valuations would indicate.

Luckily for fixed income investments, inflations fears were put to bed with the most recent CPI numbers. My instincts are telling me that we could be in for another extended period of stable low rates this fall. 4.5% without costing a fortune? I doubt it but I do think mortgage rates will hang below 5% long enough to let a lot of people who missed the last low rate cycle have a chance a getting an awesome deal.

I agree. Many of us are learning literally painful lessons right now that I hope won't be forgotten... unfortunately, they probably will.

Unfortunately,

I disagree with light at the end of the tunnel. The housing market supported 25 quarters of constant economic growth and we have seen 4 quarters of contraction. We have strong headwinds in our future including the Commercial real estate bubble (which has only been exacerbated by all the business failings). You have Alt-A and Many Option loans resetting in 2010 at the same rate the subprime resets hit in 08; and we already have high unemployment and weak financial sector. DEBT is what caused this mess and now we are using DEBT to try and get us out of it - I dont see it happening anytime soon. Dont mean to be a pessimist but the steps that have been taken to fix the crisis are a bandaid on a ruptured artery - the American Consumer.