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Loan pricing is set to improve by 12 to 25bps this morning after disappointing ADP Private Payrolls survey results. The ADP Employment Report showed U.S. private payrolls increased by 38,000 private sector jobs in May. This was well below economists' expectations for a gain of 175,000 jobs and is the...
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President Obama was on CBS this morning discussing the state of the U.S. economy. In the Q&A session Obama cited a weak housing market and high gasoline prices as the biggest "headwinds" to economic growth. Main Street is already aware of the unfriendly pressures exerted on consumer walles when food...
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Not only was today quiet in terms of trading volume, but there wasn't much directionality in charts either. Ranges were narrow and only tightened as the day progressed. Short covering was once again the main culprit behind lower TSY yields. Here are a few charts..... The FNCL 4.5 is currently visiting...
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The monthly Employment Situation Report was expected to be the market's main focus last week, instead plunging commodities prices stole the show and put the sensitive state of the domestic economic recovery back in the spotlight. The NYMEX light crude oil contract last week fell from a high of $114.83...
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The April Employment Situation Report will be released tomorrow morning. In advance of this high-profile economic event, a wind of fundamental change appears to have swept through financial markets. Bonds have rocked the rally cap in 14 of the last 14 trading sessions and now sit at their best levels...
Posted to
MBS Commentary
by
Adam Quinones
on
Thu, May 5 2011
Filed under:
Filed under: Down in Coupon, duration, Inflation, Employment Situation Report, short covering, margin squeeze, CP, Consumer Price Index, Cost of Living, Hedge Ratios
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Plain and Simple: The Fed acknowledged that inflation has picked up recently but is still expected to be "transitory". Thus rates will be kept low for an "extended period". With a tiny text change from "intends" to "will", the Statement essentially confirmed that QE2 will finish by the end of June ....
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The economy has hit an "air pocket" according to Fannie Mae's latest economic projections . If your plane has ever hit one you're familiar with the feeling; weightlessness, stomach not quite where you left it. You know or at least hope the plane will stop dropping, you are just not sure when... Fannie...
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Does anyone really believe Donald Trump is planning to announce his candidacy for U.S. President? Most folks including me see it as a ploy aimed at attracting attention to the Trump brand. What's funny is he's actually pulled off this stunt in the past...more than once. Is Trump playing us for suckers...
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It's all about inflation today.... Benchmark Treasuries are off yesterday's yield highs as stocks leak lower this morning after data released in the overnight session indicated increasing inflationary risks abroad. Asia, Europe data point to mounting inflation risks: (Reuters) - China and India reported...
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The week ahead holds a wide variety of data and events. The bond market is focused on inflation reports and Treasury auctions while stock investors prepare to kick-off corporate earnings season. Also on the market's radar is ongoing political debate on the U.S. budget plan. Even after a government shutdown...
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics has released the March 2011 Employment Situation Report . From the Release... Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in March, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 8.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in...
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics has released the Consumer Price Index for February 2011. The CPI is the most widely relied upon measure of inflation. Prices for the goods and services used to calculate the CPI are collected in 87 urban areas throughout the country and from about 23,000 retail and service...
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The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee has released the March FOMC Statement . On the whole the Fed hinted at an upgrade in economic conditions. Saying the information received since January "suggests" the economic recovery is on "firmer footing". The labor market also "appears" to be "improving gradually...
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Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon" - Milton Friedman Milton Friedman's statement theorizes that the source of all inflation is a sustained period of high growth rates in the money supply. Appropriately, Friedman's hypothesis implies inflation can be prevented by consistently reducing...
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Where to begin where to begin.... The obvious observation is interest rates are higher today. The directional move began yesterday after the Beige Book was released. Two points can be focused on. Anecdotal evidence implies economic conditions continue to improve. Read these comments for more perspective...