MND NewsWire

The Day Ahead: Stock Markets Reversing Course?

Patrick McGee — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 13:25:54 GMT

Stock markets may be reversing course after investors pushed down the Dow by 1.04% yesterday. Increased speculation that the European Union may bail out Greece is giving traders some optimism on what otherwise could be a slow day in news. One hour before the opening bell, the Dow is looking to open 66 points to 9,961 while futures on the S&P 500 Futures are up 9.10 points to 1,065. In another sign that risk may be back on the table, Crude oil is up 98 cents to $72.87 per barrel and Gold is trading $11.90 higher at $1,078.10. The US dollar, meanwhile, is trading lower. There’s not much in data that could sway markets one way or the other today. The only significant release is Wholesale Inventories, in addition to three auctions from the Treasury. Key Events Today: 10:00 ― After climbing...(read more)

Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

The Week Ahead: Treasury Auctions, Retail Sales, The Fed's Exit, Consumer Sentiment

Patrick McGee — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 13:49:00 GMT

The week ahead is a particularly slow one. The only major releases are the Trade Balance on Wednesday and Retail Sales report on Thursday. Plus, Friday will see February’s first measure of consumer confidence. With little fresh data to anticipate, the fear is that markets will continue on their downward path this week. Since January 19 the Dow has shed 5.6% while the S&P 500 has lost 6.9%. One hour before the opening bell, however, equity markets are looking stable. Dow futures are up 10 points to 10,012 and S&P 500 futures are up 3.08 points to 1,066. Meantime, WTI Crude oil is starting the week 15 cents higher at $71.34 per barrel and Spot Gold is up $1.90 to $1,068.20. The US dollar, by contrast, is lower against the majors after hitting the highest level since the summer of...(read more)

Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Home Sellers Still See Conditions as Unfavorable. Perspective on Shadow Inventory

Jann Swanson — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 21:49:00 GMT

A consumer survey conducted by Thomas Reuters and the University of Michigan indicates that it is sellers who are holding the housing market at low levels. In survey results released today, approximately 75 percent of homeowners who participated in the survey viewed current home buying conditions as favorable because of attractive home prices and low interest rates. However, nine out of ten of those home owners viewed the conditions for the sale of their own home as unfavorable, not because of lack of buyers, but because of price declines . The survey authors viewed these responses as predicting a long-term drag on the housing market for both economic and psychological reasons. There is, the report said, a significant barrier to purchasing a new home if the potential buyer's current home...(read more)

Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

The Day Ahead: Employment Situation, Unemployment Rate

Patrick McGee — Fri, 05 Feb 2010 13:14:00 GMT

Equity futures are deep in the red this morning after substantial losses yesterday. The culprit continues to be European sovereign debt concerns in Greece, Portugal and Spain, which is sending European and Asian stocks rapidly south. Labor data from the US isn’t helping as jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 480k yesterday. The big questions today are how did January employment perform, and what impact can it have on the markets? Yesterday the Dow fell 268 points, or 2.61%, putting the the industrial index into four-digits for the first time since early November. The S&P 500 performed even worse as it shed 3.1% ― its worst single-day decline in nine months ― effectively erasing three months of gains. “The deepening correction in stocks has now cut the Dow 6.7% from its January...(read more)

Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Fed MBS Program Update: 94% of Funding Used

Adam Quinones — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 20:06:00 GMT

The Federal Reserve today reported on their weekly purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). In the week ending February 3, 2010, the Federal Reserve purchased a total of $17.63 billion agency MBS. In those five days the Federal Reserve sold $5.63 billion (supported the roll market) for a net total of $12 billion MBS purchases. The goal of the Federal Reserve's agency MBS program is to provide support to mortgage and housing markets and to foster improved conditions in financial markets more generally. Only fixed-rate agency MBS securities guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae are eligible assets for the program. The program includes, but is not limited to, 30-year, 20-year and 15-year securities of these issuers. Since the inception of the program in January...(read more)

Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Freddie Mac Survey: Most Rates Up Slightly in Past Week

Jann Swanson — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 18:03:39 GMT

Rates rose slightly during the week ended February 4 according to data released today by Freddie Mac. The weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed that the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages (FRM) was 5.01 percent with 0.7 point compared to a week earlier when the rate was 4.98 percent with 0.6 point. The 15-year FRM averaged 4.40 percent, up one basis point from the previous week. Fees and points were unchanged at 0.6. Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARM) rates were mixed. The five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid ARM had an average rate of 4.27 percent with 0.6 point compared to 4.25 percent with 0.6 point last week while the 1-year Treasury-indexed ARM was down to 4.22 percent with 0.5 point from 4.29 percent also with 0.5 points. Here is a summary of the survey results: Frank Nothaft...(read more)

Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

The Day Ahead: Stocks Weaker Before Jobless Claims, Q4 Productivity

Patrick McGee — Thu, 04 Feb 2010 13:18:09 GMT

Equity markets are in the red across the globe as investors become increasingly concerned that the Greek debt tragedy could spread to other countries in the euro zone. In the US futures are sharply lower. The Dow looks to open 48 points lower to 10,193 while futures on the S&P 500 are off 5.90 points to 1,090.50. “The US$ index is stronger this morning, as the mood is definitely ‘risk off’ with global equity markets selling off,” said Benjamin Reitzes from BMO. “The major currencies are all weaker against the greenback, except the yen which is also benefiting from the shift away from risk.” Commodities are also clearly heading downwards. WTI Crude oil down 71 cents to $76.27 per barrel and Spot Gold is trading $6.17 lower to $1,103.63. Key Events Today...(read more)

Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

ECON OUTLOOK: Forecasting NFP Using ADP Data. Whispers Explained

Adam Quinones — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 18:04:00 GMT

The ADP Employment Report was released this morning. 22,000 jobs were lost in Janaury 2010. This was slightly better than the expected print of 30,000 job cuts but not far from consensus. From the release ... Nonfarm private employment decreased 22,000 from December 2009 to January 2010 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change of employment from November to December 2009 was revised by 23,000, from a decline of 84,000 to a decline of 61,000. The January employment decline was the smallest since employment began falling in February of 2008." January’s ADP Report estimates nonfarm private employment in the service-providing sector increased by 38,000, the second consecutive monthly increase. However, this employment...(read more)

Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

The Day Ahead: ADP Employment Report, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, Treasury Auction Terms

Patrick McGee — Wed, 03 Feb 2010 13:14:01 GMT

Equity futures are mixed after a steady incline yesterday pushed the Dow and S&P 500 up 1.09% and 1.30%, respectively. 90 minutes before the opening bell, the Dow looks to open 3 points higher at 10,227 while futures on the S&P 500 are down 0.20 points to 1,097.00. Commodities are higher with Crude oil up 18 cents to $77.41 per barrel and Gold up $0.60 to $1,118.60. With equities and commodities on the rise, the US dollar has weakened overnight. Meantime, the euro is modestly higher, trading just below $1.40. Key Events Today: 8:15 ― The ADP Private Employment Survey should be an important look-ahead at what kind of results should be expected in Friday’s official government report. Last month the report posted a loss of 84,000 private jobs, the smallest number March 2008. This...(read more)

Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

FY 2011 BUDGET REVIEW: Housing and Mortgage Related Proposals

Adam Quinones — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 21:52:00 GMT

The Obama Administration released the Fiscal Year 2011 Budget. To put the size of this document in perspective: the SUMMARY TABLES alone required 36 pages. The main focus of the budget: CREATING JOBS TOTAL 2011 BUDGET TO ACCOMPLISH THIS GOAL : $3.834 trillion THE WHITE HOUSE SAYS: "Having steered the economy back from the brink of a depression, the Administration is committed to moving the Nation from recession to recovery by sparking job creation to get millions of Americans back to work and building a new foundation for the long-term prosperity for all American families. To do this, the 2011 Budget makes critical investments in the key areas that will help to reverse the decline in economic security that American families have experienced over the past decade with investments in education...(read more)

Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Census Bureau: 130.6 Million Housing Units in the US; 18.9 Million are Vacant

Adam Quinones — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 21:41:00 GMT

The Census Bureau today released the Report on Residential Vacancies and Homeownership . This data covered fourth quarter 2009. From the release... National vacancy rates in the fourth quarter 2009 were 10.7 percent for rental housing and 2.7 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate was higher than the fourth quarter 2008 rate (10.1 percent) and not statistically different from the rate last quarter (11.1 percent). For homeowner vacancies, the current rate was not statistically different from the fourth quarter 2008 rate (2.9 percent) or from the rate last quarter (2.6 percent). The homeownership rate at 67.2 percent for the current quarter was not statistically different from the fourth quarter 2008 rate (67.5 percent), but it was lower than last quarter’s rate (67.6 percent...(read more)

Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

MBA Reports Increases in Commercial Loan Originations

Jann Swanson — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 18:10:00 GMT

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Tuesday that commercial mortgage originations were at a higher level during the last quarter of 2009 than in either the previous quarter or in the 4 th quarter of 2008, but multifamily originations continued to lag. The data was part of the MBA's Quarterly Survey of Commercial/Multifamily Bankers Originations . Commercial and Multifamily originations in the October-December 2009 period were 12 percent higher than those recorded June through September. Among investor types, loans from commercial banks increased 39 percent and life insurance companies increased originations by 35 percent. Conduits for Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (CMBS) decreased by 50 percent and those from GSEs dropped 15 percent. Below is a chart of the commercial...(read more)

Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Pending Home Sales Improve Marginally in December. Up 10.9% in 2009

Adam Quinones — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 15:16:00 GMT

The National Association of Realtors this morning released December Pending Home Sales data. A sale is listed as "pending" when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing. The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity from 2001 through 2004 parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. Mortgage and Real Estate professionals know that a signed contract is just the first step in a long process nowadays though. The hard part is qualifying and closing! Pending Home Sales...(read more)

Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

The Day Ahead: Pending Home Sales, Geithner and Volcker Speak to Senate Banking Committee

Patrick McGee — Tue, 02 Feb 2010 13:21:45 GMT

Equity markets are rallying ahead of key housing market data for December. 90 minutes before the opening bell, Dow futures are up 24 points to 10,161 and S&P 500 futures are trading 2.80 points up to 1,089.10. Commodities are also higher with WTI Crude oil up 71 cents to $75.14 per barrel and Spot Gold, reversing earlier declines, is up $8.25 to $1,113.75. Meanwhile, the dollar is flat along with the euro, while Australia’s currency is under water after its central bank left rates at 3.75%, surprising those looking for a 25 basis points hike. Key Events Today: 10:00 ― Pending Home Sales are currently 15.5% above previous years levels even after the index dropped 16% in November. The decline was a result of the surge in previous months owed to the government tax credit for first-time...(read more)

Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.

Loan Officer Survey: Credit Standards Tighter, Consumer Demand Falling, Deliquencies Expected to Rise

Jann Swanson — Mon, 01 Feb 2010 23:13:06 GMT

Bankers responding to the January 2010 Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices indicated that residential loan standards are still contracting. The report also states that consumer demand for mortgage loans continues to decline. The survey, released on Monday, addresses changes in loan supply and demand over the last three months. It also included three sets of special questions about delinquency rates of loans made to large and middle market firms, changes in bank policies about commercial real estate (CRE) loans over the past year, and a third set of questions about the banks' outlook over the coming year for the credit quality of a number of categories of loans. 55 domestic banks and 23 U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks responded to the...(read more)

Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.