September 2009 - MND NewsWire

The stock market turned ugly this morning after an index from the windy city reported that business conditions were back in the red. An earlier report indicating that the labor market was worse than forecasts in September had laid the groundwork for the sell-off. Within a few minutes all three indexes fell more than 1%, and by 11:30 the S&P 500 was down 0.77% to 1,052, the Dow was trading 0.77% lower to 9,671, while the Nasdaq was down 0.66% to 2,109. However, shortly thereafter commodities prices began to rally and stocks bounced off a key technical support level, recovering almost all of the intraday losses.

It’s one day before the start of the fourth quarter and global stock markets are rallying. US equity futures are looking to erase yesterday’s losses, and with appetite for stocks back in favor the US dollar is weaker this morning, though Treasury yields are lower across the curve. The main events today are the ADP private jobs survey, a regional business index from the midwest, and a speech from Dennis Lockhart (president of the Atlanta Fed).

After an unexpected drop in consumer confidence spurred on a stock sell-off this morning, all three equity indexes are clawing their way back to unchanged. As of 1:30 eastern, the S&P 500 is up 0.09% to 1,063, the Dow is trading 0.01% lower at 9,779, and the NASDAQ is 0.04% lower at 2,129.

Stock prices are trading lower this morning after yesterday’s blistering 1.78% gain. Commodity prices are mixed with oil slightly above $66, well below a recent peak of $74, but still almost a third higher than one year ago. The US$ is a tad higher on a trade-weighted basis, while the euro remains soft. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury are down four basis points to 3.28%. The Tuesday schedule brings a variety of flavors to the market’s menu. Second-tier retail reports should give a sense of how consumption is holding up as September comes to a close; a key look at home prices is expected to indicate that the long deflationary spiral has hit a bottom; the consumer confidence report will say present conditions remain soft but expectations are rising; and two officials from the Federal Reserve assess the economic outlook.

Markets are looking optimistic this morning ahead of an insanely busy week. Monday begins slowly with no major macroeconomic data on the schedule, but later in the week are key industry surveys, the monthly employment numbers, critical spending figures, plus housing prices and a variety of speeches from the Federal Reserve Board. The S&P 500 dropped a heavy 2.2% last week, and moves in either direction could be even more dramatic this week, if data surprises.

New home sales increased for the fifth straight month in August, but the 0.7% gain didn’t match the median estimate of +1.6%. The annual pace of sales is now 429,000, or 3.4% below the August 2008 rate. Not only were sales lower than expected, they were also so lopsided that only one of the four areas even experienced growth. Sales in the West jumped 12.1%, but sales fell 16.3% in Northeast and 5.8% in the Midwest, while activity in the South was flat.

All three equity indexes have extended yesterday’s late day weakness into today. After a modest open, the S&P is trading near the lows of the day, down 1.18% to 1048 after a worse-than-anticipated housing report. As of 1:45 pm, shares in the NASDAQ are worse off with a 1.47% slide to 2,100, while the Dow has lost 64 points, or 0.66%, to 9,684.