Monday, March 1, 2010
Subject : March 31, 2010
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Reports from fellow mortgage professionals did indicate lender rate sheets to be improved this morning, however several lenders repriced for the worse around mid-day. This keeps the best par 30 year conventional mortgage in the 4.875% to 5.125% range for well qualified consumers. I continue to favor locking over floating. There are too many unknowns...
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Preparing for the Fed's Exit from the Mortgage Market: Yield Spreads -
MBS Commentary
Mortgage market participants must now face the reality of a life without the supportive, flow balancing, volatility calming bid of the Federal Reserve. It's time to ensure everyone's knowledge base is adequately prepared to explain some of the factors that will be moving mortgage rates over the next few days, weeks, and months. Without going...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : March 30, 2010
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Flat Afternoon For MBS While Treasuries Improve Slightly -
MBS Commentary
Major lock decisions deal more with Friday than anything. From there, anything you know you're going to lock before NFP, the closer MBS are to 100-16, the more locky I'd feel. But I might also be a bit worried that MBS could just go sideways then down, and never come up this high again due to my uncertainty over how the fed exit will play...
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I favor locking over floating at this point. There are just too many unknowns to deal with in the near term. The Fed stops buying MBS tomorrow, more Treasury debt supply is announced on Thursday, and then we get the all important Employment Situation Report on Friday. When the Fed stops buying MBS, the largest supporter of low mortgage rates will be...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : March 29, 2010
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Plenty Of Volatility In Treasuries. MBS Stable in Sideways Trend Channel -
MBS Commentary
We're hearing quite a few questions about census jobs distorting Friday's NFP number. Here's the thing though... If we already know that temporary census hiring accounts for 150k in the jobs report, that is necessarily already included in the consensus numbers. Additionally, there is another bit of discount of Friday's number as the...
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Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate lender rate sheets to be improved from Friday. If you can lock at 4.75%, there is no question, you should be locking. If you have been floating, last week likely made you feel ill. You probably even kicked yourself for floating when rates were at their best levels of 2010. With Friday’s rally...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : March 26, 2010
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Friday MBS Rally Gives Pause To Interest Rate Pessimism -
MBS Commentary
Bonds are still more likely to move over 3.85 in the longer term, but there is enough room for the possibility that we could catch a break in the short term. Then of course if the sky falls, we could even catch a break in the long term, but we're not holding our breath until we see those pieces of sky start falling.
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Mortgage Rates Stabilize After Hitting 2010 Highs. Floating Into Next Week -
Mortgage Rate Watch
If you can lock in today at 4.875% with acceptable fees, you should strongly consider locking. If your lender is offering 5.00% or higher, I feel it is worth the risk to float. Our "lock at the price highs, float the lows" strategy has worked well this year. I continue to believe 4.75% is the lowest rate we shall see this year. With the...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : March 25, 2010
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If we forget that MBS lost about a point yesterday and that treasuries rose more than 10bps in yield, today is mild by comparison. MBS were unchanged on the day with just over three eighths of a point trading range. The 10yr was confined to what was mostly a 5-6bp range. Furthermore, several of the weak trends from yesterday were ultimately broken...
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Yesterday was either the beginning of rates moving higher or just a temporary correction. If your lender is still offering the same rate they were offering two days ago, lock! If the cost of borrowing has risen, which is the likely case, I think you should cautiously float at this point. The damage has been done and there is no need to panic just yet...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : March 24, 2010
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Benchmark interest rates started rising early in the trading session, before MBS trading officially opened at 8am. Positive Durable Goods Orders data added weakness. Then poor demand at the five year Treasury note auction intensified bond market selling. After that, buyers basically gave up which pushed yields higher and higher. Over the course of the...
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Bad Gets Worse! Support NO LONGER In Tact For MBS, Just Barely In Tsy's -
MBS Commentary
Not much to say that can't be said by the charts. 4.5's now down 24 ticks to 100-08.
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : March 23, 2010
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Mortgage Rates Fully Recovered from Recent Uptick. Energy Building in Benchmarks -
Mortgage Rate Watch
The par 30 year conventional rate mortgage has once again declined to the 4.75% to 5.00% range for well qualified consumers .Over the past two days benchmark Treasury yields and MBS prices have barely budged from a tight trading range. Trading has been very slow as market participants have been unmotivated by recent headline news developments and a...
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Treasuries Falling. MBS Trying To Hold Ground After Fed President Comments -
MBS Commentary
FN 4.5's currently unchanged on the day at 101-02. (4 ticks off highs). Treasuries much worse off with 10yr down 7 ticks, pushing yield up to 3.69. Chalk afternoon signs of life in stocks up to Fed's Janet Yellen who said, among other things...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : March 22, 2010
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It was a very slow day in the mortgage market. Mortgage-backed security prices opened lower which forced many lenders to publish mortgage rates higher than they were set on Friday. However, modest improvements in benchmark Treasury yields helped MBS prices recover from intra-day price lows. This allowed some lenders to republish rates for the better...
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MBS Still at Best Levels. Recent Past Suggests Not Much Higher -
MBS Commentary
Current trading may follow a certain general framework, but it's all akin to a pre-game warm up as the real action won't begin until 1pm tomorrow--when the first round of auction results are released.
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : March 19, 2010
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After yesterday’s busy economic data calendar, the schedule was empty today. Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate lender rate sheets to be worse today. The par 30 year conventional rate mortgage has risen to the 4.875% to 5.125% range for well quailed consumers. There are still a few lenders offering 4.75%.
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Fannie Mae Clarifies Timing of Delinquency Buyouts. How Does this Affect Rates? -
MBS Commentary
Ugly AM got prettier as 4.5's made it back to unchanged at 100-31 10yr yields actually down a bp to 3.66 (were as high as 3.7 this AM) Potentially unseen lift from Fannie delinquency buyout release If trying to recover lost YSP from this AM, still safe to wait it out. Things looked pretty bad this AM as bonds opened much worse than even an extension...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : March 18, 2010
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After the release of the Treasury debt statement, benchmark yields rose and MBS prices fell. This forced many lenders to reprice for the worse. After the reprices for the worse, lender rate sheets are worse than yesterday. The best par 30 year conventional rate mortgage does remain in the 4.75% to 5.00% range for well qualified consumers though, it...
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4.5's down 2 ticks on the day at 101-01 10yr tsy down 8 ticks, bringing yield up to 3.67 S&P down a point, Dow up just over 30 points. Current levels in bonds are at or slightly better than well tested support on the day With no data, and quadruple witching, tomorrow is uncertain. After moving weaker all day in trend channels, MBS and treasuries...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : March 17, 2010
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We are seeing very aggressive rate sheets from lenders today. My advice would be to lock any loan closing and funding in the next 30 days. Same exception as last week… if you are one day away from a shorter lock term, than I would float and lock tomorrow to take advantage of the better pricing a shorter lock period offers. If you are sitting on the...
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Current Coupon MBS Move Sideways at Resistance as Stocks Keep Rallying -
MBS Commentary
THE PHRASE PLAY THE RANGE UNTIL THE RANGE PLAYS YOU RESONATES LOUDLY IN MY HEAD AT THE MOMENT. 10 yr yields have fallen fast, all the way back to the outer limits of range resistance. While there is some room for rates to move marginally lower...our benchmark guidance giver is running into firmer and firmer layers of resistance. Combine that with stocks...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : March 16, 2010
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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met for a one day meeting today. Usually they meet for two. At 2:15, the FOMC released their statement on monetary policy. The statement was very similar to the FOMC statement released after the January meeting. They reiterated the need for low rates for an "extended time" and that inflation is not...
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Reprices for the Better Reported as MBS Hit Intraday Price Highs -
MBS Commentary
Bottom line, arguments were a bit skewed in favor of floating yesterday, whereas they are more balanced today. However, this factors in some trending weakness in MBS spreads which, if absent, would allow for some ongoing bullishness. Sorry for that uncertainty, but if anyone knows where spreads are going and when, please let everyone else know......
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : March 15, 2010
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After a slow week of economic data, the calendar picks up in the days ahead.If you followed my advice on floating over the weekend, you picked up some price gains this morning. With many lenders offering 4.75% as par once again, I am advising to only float loans that are a day away from locking on a shorter lock period....
Subject : March 12, 2010
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Following the release of the Retail Sales report, benchmark yields rose and MBS prices plummeted. Many lenders released rate sheets at the lows of the day, thus mortgage rates moved higher out of the gates. However, shortly thereafter, benchmark rates began to recover as bargain buyers entered the market at the price lows. Then momentum was added to...
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It was an interesting morning in the rates world. Let's start with our fearless leader, the benchmark 10 year note. In below average trading volume, yields rose marginally (at most) in the overnight session before popping higher on the heels of a much better than expected Retail Sales print at 830. After that we noticed some nibbling from real money...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : March 11, 2010
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Tomorrow morning we get the Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment and Business Inventories. Of the three, the Retail Sales report has the highest potential to move the markets. Better than expected results would move rates higher while worse than expected results would only improve mortgage borrowing costs by a few basis points. I continue to advise my...
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MBS AFTERNOON: Volatility Fades As Bonds Cling To The Edge -
MBS Commentary
The Edge: Both MBS 4.5's and 10yr notes are UNCHANGED at the moment For MBS, that's 100-30 and for the 10yr, that's just under 3.73 Verdict on this auction cycle: undecided... waiting for retail sales tomorrow and FOMC next week The snake continues to coil, but who will it strike? When we reference the snake, that would be a chart with with...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.