Monday, February 1, 2010
Subject : February 25, 2010
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Improvements over the course of the week have led mortgage rates back toward the lows of 2010. While floating is really tempting, if I only had one loan to float, I would lock it. If I had 10 in my pipeline, I would float 3 and lock 7. I am still not convinced lenders will offer mortgage rates below 4.75% in 2010.
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Ok, so it's never a good time to ignore the MBS market, but the real question wouldn't fit into the title. Even then, it's a rhetorical question anyway, the purpose of which, to suggest that we merely ignore past ranges of MBS as indicative of how high or low they are in the current range. I'm not sure if that's entirely clear, but...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : February 24, 2010
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I have been saying all year that mortgage rates will need some sort of major shift in economic outlooks if they are to fall below 4.75% again. A surprise announcement from the Fed that extended the MBS purchase program would help to, but we find this highly unlikely at the moment. This is our long term outlook. In the short term, if you are being offered...
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As treasury yields backed up modestly after the 5yr auction, MBS prices were forced downward lest mortgage spreads achieve levels of tightness only imagined by the waistband of my pre-"wife and kids" wardrobe. And though sufficient danger of reprices existed to warrant an alert, we've since turned back and are heading in the right direction...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : February 23, 2010
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Yesterday was the first day in awhile that I advised floating overnight. It paid off today. If you are being offered 4.75% costing 1 discount point, I would lock. If your rate moved lower by 0.125% (in rate, not points), I would consider locking. If your mortgage rate did not move lower today (same as yesterday), it is not likely to rise tomorrow even...
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We'll lead off with the MBS Ninja tonight, and I'll translate afterward. Secondary MBS, the market where rates are most influenced (great slogan huh?), played it almost according to recent form today as those who were left behind the prior day were less left behind today. Actually, in times of great moves the upper and lower wings (super-premium...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : February 22, 2010
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It will be a very busy week of economic data releases and headline news events. We have casually discussed the idea of a short term float position. This is a very risky move, but if you are approaching the 10 day window to lock your loan, and have a few days to watch, there might be an opportunity to pick up 0.125% in rate. That's really not much...
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Seems like the title should have one more word right? More what? Sadly, it was intentionally obfuscated as the only thing we can really be certain of tomorrow is that there will be "more." more volatility? more movement? more data? more significance? more narrow ranges? more uncertainty ahead of significant data? ...a heartfelt and emphatic...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : February 19, 2010
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Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate higher rates this morning. The par 30 year conventional rate mortgage is in the 5.00% to 5.25% range for well qualified consumers. To secure a par rate you must have a FICO credit score of 740 or higher, a loan to value at 80% or less and pay all closing costs including an estimated one point loan...
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Everything I'm not about to cover has already been covered HERE . That being the case, the day gets a lot more boring and even a touch of positivity by the time it's done. You like shorter MBS Commentary sometimes right? Maybe even some recap bullet-points and a chart or two. Rates either held on to weaker levels following yesterday's news...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : February 18, 2010
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Just like yesterday, mortgage rates moved higher at the open today...and then even higher later in the day as MBS prices fell further and lenders had to reprice for the worse. MBS pricing took a beating today and so did lender rate sheets! While not completely confirmed, this looks to be the beginnings of all interest rates moving higher.
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MBS AFTERNOON: Supportive Levels Tested And Firm For Now -
MBS Commentary
We had been looking for support around the previous lows of the day around 100-09 to 100-10. The market moved briefly lower after that, but that test failed and the 100-10 level in MBS looks as if it will hold up for today. Meanwhile, the 3.80 level discussed earlier that the treasury counterpart to the MBS trade at 100-10 also allowed yields a brief...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : February 17, 2010
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After making marginal improvements yesterday, the interest rate market gave back all gains in the overnight session. This weakness was then supported by better than expected housing and industrial production data as well as a generally better outlook from the FOMC minutes. On top of that, stocks improved on the day. All of these factors combined to...
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From The MBS Ninja: With no room left to tighten, secondary mortgage spreads are thoroughly reliant upon treasury moves and dips as today"s actions will attest to. In the absence of any new revelations concerning relative value within the sector (of MBS, the market will day trade the sessions away and look to add bonds on pullbacks (if any) and...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : February 16, 2010
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Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate lender rate sheets to be slightly improved from yesterday, which were pretty much the same as Friday. The par 30 year conventional rate mortgage remains in the 4.875% to 5.125% range for well qualified consumers. There are however a few lenders offering 4.75% at par, but that will require discount...
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As the day winds down, MBS have put in a linear series of higher lows and are now 6 ticks up on the day at 101-03. Meanwhile, the 10yr did end up testing the 3.67 level where we drew the line in the sand in the previous commentary. You'll be able to see a nice bounce off that resistance, in line with Friday's low yields, before moving lower...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : February 12, 2010
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After three below average Treasury auctions and a few days of positive progress in stocks, mortgage rates are ending the week slightly higher than where they started.Based on about 20 investor rate sheets, the best rate a consumer could be quoted, without paying a 2 points, is 4.75%, but only a few lenders are offering rates that low at the moment....
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MBS LUNCH: Improvements Narrowing Toward Pivotal Levels -
MBS Commentary
In the title of this commentary, "pivotal" is a bit misleading as it's not used in the classic sense of the word, but rather, the literal. Both MBS and Treasuries, riding on some moderate improvements, have begun their classic descent into Fence-Sitter International, a make-believe airport where bond prices come to rest on internal trendlines...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : February 11, 2010
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Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate lender rate sheets to be about the same as rates yesterday morning. This puts the par 30 year conventional rate mortgage in the 4.875% to 5.00% range for well qualified consumers, there are however a few lenders offering 4.75% at par again, but that quote will require about 1 point paid by the consumer...
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MBS AFTERNOON: Into Positive Territory As Day Winds Down -
MBS Commentary
In yesterday's CLOSE , we discussed a potential bottoming occurring in MBS prices around 100-17 suggested by the early visual cues of a sort of "parabolic correction." In other words, prices looked to be drawing a "U" shape with the apex near 100-17. Whether the shape of yesterday's charts really did contain vital insight...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : February 10, 2010
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Today's "tape-bomb", or volatile news item, was launched from the frontlines at FHLMC, somewhere in suburban Virginia, as they announced they would buy "substantially" all the 120+ day delinquent mortgage loans from the company's related fixed rate and adjustable program. Quite a mouthful; what it all means is that holders...
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Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate lender rate sheets to be worse this morning., mortgage rates are higher. While the par 30 year conventional mortgage rate does remain in the 4.75% to 5.00% range (for well qualified consumers), it will cost more to get that rate today. To secure a par rate you must have a FICO credit score of 740...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : February 9, 2010
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MBS CLOSE: Switching Focus To Next MBS Coupon, And Next Auction -
MBS Commentary
February Coupons in Fannie and Freddie 30yr MBS (Class A), have gone the way of the old gray mare, as we now welcome our new pal for the next 30 days: March Coupons! The difference in price between the Feb and the March coupons was 14 ticks at closing time, making things look a lot worse than they were. Organically, the 4.5 was down only 2 ticks today...
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Short Term Direction of Mortgage Rates Dependent Upon Auctions and Stocks -
Mortgage Rate Watch
Nothing has changed from Friday. Mortgage rates continue to run into a floor at 4.75%. This has held true all month! My lock bias is based on the big picture outlook. Barring a major shift in sentiment that drives benchmark Treasury yields lower, mortgage rates should move higher in months to come. While floating day to day can result in small reductions...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : February 8, 2010
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MBS AFTERNOON: Narrow And Stable Heading Into The Close -
MBS Commentary
The market is duller than a Colts victory parade at the moment. We're dealing with a fairly standard issue "calm before the storm" that we often see on a data-limited Monday when the rest of the week contains the more significant events. The supportive trends we began to note in the last post have continued to foster a narrow range of...
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Short Term Direction of Mortgage Rates Dependent Upon Auctions and Stocks -
Mortgage Rate Watch
Nothing has changed from Friday. Mortgage rates continue to run into a floor at 4.75%. This has held true all month! My lock bias is based on the big picture outlook. Barring a major shift in sentiment that drives benchmark Treasury yields lower, mortgage rates should move higher in months to come. While floating day to day can result in small reductions...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : February 5, 2010
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MBS AFTERNOON: Massive Stock Rally Leaves Bonds Slightly Weaker -
MBS Commentary
After reaching as high as 101-20, MBS 4.5's are back down to 101-14. Its seems that layers of support are building at levels that would leave 4.5's at PAR after settlement next week. Far be it from me to suggest there's some sort of external force that continues to push 4.5's toward that 101-00 level, but it LOOKS that way on the chart...
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When considering the LOCK vs FLOAT decision, I think of it as so: WE ARE PLAYING CHESS, NOT CHECKERS. My lock bias is based on the big picture outlook. Mortgage rates are currently priced near very aggressive levels. Barring a major shift in sentiment that drives benchmark Treasury yields lower, mortgage rates should move higher in months to come. While...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : February 4, 2010
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Lenders Improve Mortgage Rates as Stocks Panic. Locking Ahead of Employment Report -
Mortgage Rate Watch
I have been advising LOCK all week ahead o the Employment Situation Report, which will be released at 8:30am tomorrow morning. While there have been many whispers for both job losses and job creation, economists are very mixed about the outlook. Worse than expected jobs numbers benefit MBS prices and lead to lower mortgage rates while better than expected...
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MBS AFTERNOON: Expecting Huge Revisions to Previous Jobs Data -
MBS Commentary
"There will be a jobs revision I'm told tomorrow that's likely to show additional job loss at the first part of the recession that started in December 2007, making the whole of job loss that we've dealt with even deeper"
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.