Friday, January 1, 2010
Subject : January 29, 2010
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Following the release of much better than expected 4th Quarter GDP, mortgage-backed security prices fell. This forced lenders to move mortgage rates slightly higher early on in the day. That didn't last long though. Around lunch time MBS prices began to improve. After the lunch hour, momentum picked up and lenders started repricing for the better...
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Today's rates rally started as one of those "sell the rumor, buy the news" aka FADE THE DATA moves. The bond market knew GDP would be strong, so they opened SHORT positions. Those positions were then covered at 3.68% (117-16 in TY) and now we're seeing a bargain buyers take advantage of their 0% funding rates at month's end....
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : January 28, 2010
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After another decent auction--this time $32 bln in 7yr Notes--bonds showed little inclination toward volatile movement in either direction. Relatively light supply in MBS vs. relatively healthy demand across the stack (but from different sources - Fed at the low end in particular) helped keep prices in check. Nonetheless, prices ground a bit lower after...
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Mortgage Rates Move Higher Again. Stocks Influencing Lock/Float Decisions -
Mortgage Rate Watch
I have been advising LOCK all week. If you locked, way to go! Good timing. If you did not lock, we have some deep thinking to do. I think the easiest way to gauge that decision is: DO YOU THINK STOCKS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO SELL OFF or DO YOU THINK STOCKS WILL CORRECT FROM RECENT WEAKNESS. Given the relentless rally we saw in stocks from March until...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : January 27, 2010
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MORTGAGE RATES MOVED HIGHER AFTER THE FOMC RELEASE. Reports from fellow mortgage professionals now indicate lender rate sheets to be worse than yesterday’s. Lenders continue to offer the best mortgage rates we've seen since early December. While I am tempted to see if rates keep moving higher tomorrow, I think borrowers should still be locking...
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Mortgages are heading into the close near their worst price levels of the day. The FN 4.0 is -0-08 at 97-21 yielding 4.224% and the FN 4.5 is -0-06 at 100-24 yielding 4.428%. The secondary market current coupon is 4.397%. We've seen a handful of lenders recall rate sheets, but nothing widespread. Tonight's State of the Union address will determine...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : January 26, 2010
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MBS LUNCH: Average Auction. Not Much Reaction in Rates Market -
MBS Commentary
Following the average auction (average at best), interest rates moved higher. However shortly thereafter status quo was restored as short covering slowed the sell off which then triggered bargain buying near the session lows (day trading). Now we're pretty much right where we left off ahead of the auction.
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Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate lenders have passed along better rates this morning. The par 30 year conventional rate mortgage has once again fallen to the 4.75% to 5.00% range for well qualified consumers. To secure a par interest rate you must have a FICO credit score of 740 or higher, a loan to value at 80% or less and pay...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : January 25, 2010
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Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate lender rate sheets to be worse than Friday. The par 30 year conventional rate mortgage has risen to the 4.875% to 5.125% range for well qualified consumers.These rates are the most aggressive in the mortgage market, only very well qualified consumers will have access to these borrowing costs. To...
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MBS OPEN: Bond Market Has Much to Consider in Week Ahead... -
MBS Commentary
Lots to consider this week. "Rate sheet influential" TSYs have been performing well but are now looking a bit oversold and possibly due a period of reconsideration and consolidation. In this busy week, traders should remain defensive of extended progress and be quick to take profits. Barring any unforeseen tapebombs (which are actually quite possible), anticipate a bit of a tug of war (range trade). If I were hedging a pipeline of my own I would be floating day to day with my finger close to the LOCK button on my already registered loans...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : January 22, 2010
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With lenders still offering the best rates we've seen in over a month and further progress unknown in the rates market, I still think most should be locking in their mortgage rate. As I said yesterday, we have picked up significant gains this week, by locking you take advantage of those gains and remove risks. At this point, without a fundamental...
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MBS AFTERNOON: Choppy Price Action. Status Quo Maintained -
MBS Commentary
Heading into the afternoon hours the rates market continues to trade in a choppy manner. While much distance has been traveled on charts, status quo has been kept as prices have failed to venture too far from recent ranges. The FN 4.0 is 0-05 at 97-31 yielding 4.195% and the FN 4.5 is -0-02 at 100-31 yielding 4.405%. The secondary market current coupon...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : January 21, 2010
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With lenders still offering the best rates we've seen in over a month and further progress unknown in the rates market, I think most should consider locking in their mortgage rate. As I said yesterday, we have picked up significant gains this week, by locking now you take advantage of those gains and remove risks of rising rates. At this point...
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MBS LUNCH: Forced Buying Pushes Rates to 2010 Lows - MBS Commentary
"Rate sheet influential" MBS prices are higher and mortgage rates are improved. While the spike in TSY trading volume is supportive of an extension to the rates "relief rally", the underlying motivation behind boosted bond market optimism is forced buying. This leaves the FLIGHT TO SAFETY rally in the bond market susceptible to a selloff (unwind of protective positions), especially if new details come to light that clear up confusions and calm the concerns of bankers and traders who now have to wonder if there business models are useless. STAY DEFENSIVE...Read More
Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : January 20, 2010
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MBS CLOSE: Recapping the Day and Looking Ahead to Tomorrow -
MBS Commentary
There's something about writing the MBS CLOSE that just bothers me. I can't put my finger on one specific reason why I loathe the evening time spot, I just do! Perhaps I prefer not to write the MBS CLOSE because its somewhat of a recap of things we've already written or discussed. There is also the issue with MBS CLOSE "performance...
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Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate improved rate sheets this morning. The par 30 year conventional rate mortgage has dipped to the 4.75% to 5.00% range for well qualified consumers.If you have been floating your rate for some time, you have picked up noticeable gains over the course of the week. With that in mind, there is nothing...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : January 19, 2010
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Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate lender rate sheets to be unchanged this morning. The par 30 year conventional rate mortgage remains in the 4.875% to 5.125% range for well qualified consumers, a few lenders are still offering 4.75%, but not many. Last week I advised that I am providing lock float guidance on a very short term basis...
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MBS MORNING: Range Moderates. Market Focused on Politics -
MBS Commentary
The 3.375% coupon bearing 10 year TSY note is trading -0-05 at 97-11. Selling stopped out shy of 3.74% thanks to a round of short covering. Don't expect rates to venture too far out of the "status quo" range today. Same thing goes for "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons to make much positive progress while the Mass Senate race...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : January 15, 2010
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WE GOT THOSE MORTGAGE RATE IMPROVEMENTS WE WERE EXPECTING YESTERDAY! Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate lender rate sheets to be at their best levels in a month. While the most aggressive lenders were offering 4.75% today, most lenders still have 30 year conventional par mortgage rates in the 4.875% to 5.125% range for well qualified...
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MBS LUNCH: Narrow And Stable In New And Improved Range -
MBS Commentary
The bulk of the gains today came in hours between 8am and 10am, surrounding Econ Data. As bonds rallied off yesterday's auctions and Econ data, that rally was ALLOWED to extend this AM by more underwhelming econ data. And so the next logical stop for bonds has been just under and around the 3.68 milestone in the 10yr. That puts us solidly through...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : January 14, 2010
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The final Treasury auction for the week was held at 1:00pm eastern today. The Department of Treasury offered $13 billion of 30 year bonds. The results of the auction were fantastic and so was the market's immediate reaction, unfortunately progress stalled and prices fell back into the recent range. Reprices for the better were not awarded! Mortgage...
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MBS AFTERNOON: Footing Found Near Top of Status Quo Range -
MBS Commentary
After a successful long bond auction and positive knee jerk price reaction, the rates market has failed to extend relief rally progress into a new range. Whomp whoooomp.....I have yet to see any of the major lenders pull the trigger on reprices in either direction. That leaves both mortgage rates and "rate sheet influential" MBS prices at...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : January 13, 2010
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Mortgage Rates improved yesterday afternoon into this morning, however these gains were lost after the 10 year Treasury auction today. While positive progress was lost today, we still feel that the completion of this week's Treasury auctions tomorrow will present the best opportunity to see lower mortgage rates.
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MBS AFTERNOON: Losses Decelerating. "Up In Coupon" Rules -
MBS Commentary
Though treasuries are exhibiting a slight preference for short duration today (2yr notes are about 1.5bps better on the day vs. 10yr notes), that dynamic is even more pronounced in MBS. The 4.5 is down 10 ticks at 100-07 whereas the 6.0 is unchanged at 106-11. Unfortunately, that's more of a point of curiosity than anything since lender's aren't...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : January 12, 2010
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Despite a slight bit of initial weakness, the charts are in fine position as the 10yr is holding one of it's more aggressive support levels at 3.73. As always, there's plenty of risk for volatility following auctions, but we'll watch the 3.73 and 3.75 levels. For now, we're in good shape. (This chart is scary but dont worry prices...
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So far today yesterday's modest improvements have extended over into today, however instead of being "modest", the gains have been substantial! This has allowed lenders to improve mortgage rates this morning. The par 30 year conventional rate mortgage remains in the 4.875% to 5.125% range for well qualified consumers. To secure a par...
Read More
Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : January 11, 2010
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MBS AFTERNOON: Preparing for MBS Prices to Plummet. Discussing Notification Day -
MBS Commentary
If you haven't read the following description of the agency MBS settlement process...please dont skip over it as it may save you from having to change your pants when next month's settlement rolls around. If you have read it...go over it one more time just to make sure the underlying logic is clear.
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Reports from fellow mortgage professionals indicate lender rate sheets to be similar to Friday’s. The par 30 year conventional mortgage rate remains in the 4.875% to 5.125% range for well qualified consumers. On Friday I informed you that I would likely hold onto my lock bias until the rates market provided confirmation of a recovery rally...but would...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.
Subject : January 8, 2010
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Today was a CROSSROADS EVENT. We were hoping rising mortgage rates in December was not a function of shifting sentiment in the rates market. We were hoping that rising rates were dramatized by a slow holiday season marketplace. Today's WORSE THAN EXPECTED report on the labor market was a perfect opportunity for mortgage rates to correct from December...
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Euphoria struck this AM not only with the substantially worse-than-expected headline jobs loss, but a slew of the report's internal components perhaps even more economically bearish than the headline itself. The vertical line that shot straight up in MBS prices and straight down in bond yields was quite the welcome companion to many a morning cup...
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Provided by Mortgage News Daily
This information is not an advertisement to extend consumer credit
as defined by Section 226.2 of Regulation Z. This is not an offer to
enter into an agreement regarding interest rates. The rates quoted do
not include discount points, origination points, or loan level risk
based price adjustments. Rates and terms are subject to change without
notice.