MBS AFTERNOON: Range Widens (For The Better...)

re: MBS AFTERNOON: Range Widens (For The Better...)

Brett Boyke — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 21:11:25 GMT

From: Rate Alert Lock Report (PM) 7/1/2009 - take it for what it's worth

Get prepared for another decline in mortgage rates. It is coming, when is difficult to be precise but we now expect interest rates are about to break lower, originators should be preparing to take advantage of it with their data base of potential re-finance clients. The stock market is teetering and about to run out of gas; we have been expecting it for a month but have missed the point that investors are believing the economy is about to take off. Still not dissuaded however; the equity markets are increasingly ripening for a major retreat, when it happens the bond and mortgage markets will be beneficiaries. The market needs a trigger of some sort to break its back.

re: MBS AFTERNOON: Range Widens (For The Better...)

Terry wilson — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 21:07:19 GMT

So a big day tomorrow, and all of it rides on the NFP report. Hopefully it will be around 450'ish and not much more or less and this leads to a treasury rally to get the yield down to about 3.10.... Pinch me if I dream too much.

re: MBS AFTERNOON: Range Widens (For The Better...)

Ray Leone — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 20:59:18 GMT

Is there or is there not 'political' influence in the the NFP number? That is the million dollar (or should I say 4.5%) question. I understand there was not that much gov't hiring in June, so ADPs numbers should be a lot closer the 'actual' payroll ones presented by the gov't. I really liked the part about the long weekend and talking heads. Whichever way the number goes tomorrow (I'm betting on the Ninja's prediction of -500k; 9.7%), we all will still enjoy our independence this weekend, and thank God we live in this great country.

re: MBS AFTERNOON: Range Widens (For The Better...)

Michael Cromwell — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 20:52:29 GMT

HUD announces an increase from 105% to 125% LTV to help distressed homeowners. That change means NOTHING unless rates are low enough to afford borrowers some significant savings. Bill Gross wrote today that we would see low rates for some time to come. Do they know something? Maybe tomorrow will be a good day in the mtg. world. I'm not going to hold my breath.

re: MBS AFTERNOON: Range Widens (For The Better...)

Casey Brischle — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 20:44:56 GMT

Take it Delf. Great rate and Fee Structure.

re: MBS AFTERNOON: Range Widens (For The Better...)

Delf Schmidt — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 20:44:06 GMT

Hi, Love the read your blogs analysis and recommendations. I'm hopefully closing on a house in Ca on 8/7/09. I was just quoted a 15YF rate of 4.75 with (0/0). What would be your recommendation, should I lock or wait? What should I look for? Thanks D.

re: MBS AFTERNOON: Range Widens (For The Better...)

Delf Schmidt — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 20:43:37 GMT

re: MBS AFTERNOON: Range Widens (For The Better...)

Frank Ceizyk — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 20:20:58 GMT

Two defensive posts in a row...hmmm--you trying to tell us something? If you make the assumption that the economic reports are made with some political motivation behind them, then the defensive posturing--especially ahead of a long weekend when a lot of politicians will be looking for talking points to discuss the state of our independence, is probably warranted. If you're on the R side you have to hope for higher NFP--which means current admin programs aren't working and last month NFP was a fluke and you can get on the talking head shows and bash cap & trade and healthcare using NFP as a bludgeon to argue stimulus $$ aren't working to "create or save jobs". However, if you are on the D side--you may have the clout and inside influence to hope for the 3rd "less weak than expected" NFP report in a row--giving you lots of momentum to argue that the looming cap & trade and healthcare plans will have similar success...which would give the recovery bulls some new legs. But economic reports are never influenced by political tailwinds...right...so this is just black helicopter stuff hypothecating. Then again--last month, the stronger than expected NFP certainly quieted the "alternative world currency" arguments...and gave the dollar a boost--but again--that was just coincidence....gotta go...I hear rotors overhead...

re: MBS UPDATE: Range Widens (For The Better...)

Wayne Rogers — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 20:05:15 GMT

Drew, in your case it means Not from Prison, when did you get sprung anyway? Just kiddin, trying to keep it light in this forum.

re: MBS UPDATE: Range Widens (For The Better...)

Grayson Brown — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 20:02:31 GMT

NFP = Non Farm Payroll

re: MBS UPDATE: Range Widens (For The Better...)

Matthew — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 19:59:42 GMT

Non Farm Payrolls - helps give an indication of the unemployement situation

re: MBS UPDATE: Range Widens (For The Better...)

Drew Peterson — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 19:57:25 GMT

What is NFP?