MBS CLOSE: STILL CONSIDERING THE RISKS...

re: MBS CLOSE: STILL CONSIDERING THE RISKS...

Brian Foster — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 15:04:54 GMT

Thanks for the post Adam, still fairly new to alot of this background stuff but learning more and more by your posts and many of the comments. thank you

re: MBS CLOSE: STILL CONSIDERING THE RISKS...

Garth Cook — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 08:53:35 GMT

Asian stock markets were mixed Friday as investors turned cautious amid worries the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest move to combat recession in the world's largest economy will lead to rampant inflation.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> I have posted some concerns about inflation. They have not been geared around actual inflation, but the concern about future inflation and how this future concern effects the markets today.

re: MBS CLOSE: STILL CONSIDERING THE RISKS...

Emmett Dempsey — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 08:18:20 GMT

I was able to lock one of my borrowers in the pipe at 4.875% getting some nice YSP. I can always lower his rate a bit for some more on the front. I had some borrowers I told to "get on board NOW", and they kept dragging their feet and bitching about closing costs. I guess a 4.375% rate and saving $1,000 a month is just not good enough for some people.

re: MBS CLOSE: STILL CONSIDERING THE RISKS...

Mike Leach — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 02:32:29 GMT

Rates stay low as long as MBS and TSY prices stay high. With the FED pledging to increase the balance sheet to buy whatever it takes to keep rates low, the heavy lifting is being done by those who are positioning themselves up to be sellers to the FED without a dime being spent. As to inflation a few things must be remembered. Rant ahead? 1. ALL US GOVERNMENT DEBT IS PRICED IN US DOLLARS. Who doesn't want to borrow 100 and repay 80? As the world's current reserve currency monetizing debt does not create third-world hyperinflation, on the contrary it forces creditor nations to go along and print their own money to preserve their invested capital, or risk losing a fair piece. 2. Domestic production of food commodities is sufficient to support domestic and export demand even with a debased dollar. The government uses subsidies today to prevent and buy excess supply. 3. The Chinese YUAN is pegged to the dollar and combined the two nations consume the majority of the worlds crude. As any sheik knows the BID not the ASK set crude prices. 4. A true debasing against the 'basket' of global currencies CREATES US JOBS by reverting to in sourcing and increasing exports. A strong dollar is a heavy burden for all but a few in this country. The strong dollar of the past has built a global infrastructure 'empire' unimaginable 40 years ago and that's great. Now a weak dollar is needed to transform from consumer of the planet to supplier of the planet and to 'tax' the empire and not the taxpayer. So many doomsayers spewed the same rhetoric when the government stopped having deficits priced in millions and started having deficits in the billions. OK I better stop before I'm banned. :)

re: MBS CLOSE: STILL CONSIDERING THE RISKS...

Bob V-G — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 01:31:06 GMT

Back in the saddle. Good post AQ!

re: MBS CLOSE: STILL CONSIDERING THE RISKS...

ANDREW GOLD — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 01:26:51 GMT

Now that was a good post Adam.

re: MBS CLOSE: STILL CONSIDERING THE RISKS...

Jill Statz — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 01:18:14 GMT

Great post King Kong!!! Let us hope this time with the Gov't backing MBS we can at least hold these rates steady and get our clients re-fi'ed and have them happy at the 4.5-5% range...these are still great rates!!!

re: MBS CLOSE: STILL CONSIDERING THE RISKS...

J B — Fri, 20 Mar 2009 00:31:18 GMT

I agree with the above post. I'm also concerned that the banks will keep rates in the high 4's even though they could be lower based on consumer demand. Like last time, if the demand is too high, banks will raise rates just to lessen the workload. For that reason, I locked today at 4.625%. Figure they may go lower, but not too much lower on 30yr fixed.

re: MBS CLOSE: STILL CONSIDERING THE RISKS...

Frank Ceizyk — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 23:58:04 GMT

On the "inflation concern" note--has anyone noticed the run up in commodities? Any chance we'll see a repeat of last summer's oil run up adding inflationary concerns (not to mention that rates were in the 6% range when oil prices peaked July 4th last summer). On Bloomberg today: U.S. Stocks Retreat as Bank Rally Fizzles; Commodities Jump Most This Year

re: MBS CLOSE: STILL CONSIDERING THE RISKS...

CG — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 23:32:30 GMT

The thing I noticed is the fed will have spent trillions of freshly-printed dollars to but mbs. Printing trillions of new dollars leads to inflation, no? That is the biggest enemy of interest rates...right? The obama administration and its beloved teleprompter seem to think they can print their way out of economic problems, which is, in a word, stupid. Am I missing something?

re: MBS CLOSE: STILL CONSIDERING THE RISKS...

Adam Janik — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 23:06:21 GMT

I wonder what influences the Bail Out Bonus Tax bill have on the markets tomorrow if any?

re: MBS CLOSE: STILL CONSIDERING THE RISKS...

Fred Winograd — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 23:01:38 GMT

Brilliant and Honest Post. Thank you Adam

re: MBS CLOSE: STILL CONSIDERING THE RISKS...

Jan Van Petten — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 22:45:39 GMT

Great post Adam, thank you.