http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mbs Mortgage Rates Blog https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-04302026 Thu, 30 Apr 2026 20:29:12 GMT 69f3ca14a6791958c5a90516 Matthew Graham Bonds Recover With Oil, But Not Completely Ever since bottoming out together on the morning of April 17th, bond yields and oil prices have been moving higher together.  The early overnight trading hours may have witnessed a bit of a "blow-off top" (fancy words that basically mean markets reversed course simply because they'd gone too high, too fast). In other words, there wasn't an overt reason for the reversal in the news cycle. That said, there arguably wasn't sufficient justification for the last leg of the rate/oil spike seen yesterday. Econ data didn't necessarily drive any of the movement, but with PCE falling right in line with expectations, it didn't get in the way. Perhaps more impressive is that bonds didn't see any selling pressure from the lowest jobless claims reading in more than 3 years. Econ Data / Events Continued Claims (Apr)/18 1,785K vs 1820K f'cast, 1821K prev Core PCE (m/m) (Mar) 0.3% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.4% prev Core PCE (y/y) (Mar) 3.2% vs 3.2% f'cast, 3% prev Core PCE Prices QoQQ1 4.3% vs 4.1% f'cast, 2.7% prev Employment costsQ1 0.9% vs 0.8% f'cast, 0.7% prev GDPQ1 2.0% vs 2.3% f'cast, 0.5% prev Jobless Claims (Apr)/25 189K vs 215K f'cast, 214K prev PCE (y/y) (Mar) 3.5% vs 3.5% f'cast, 2.8% prev PCE prices (m/m) (Mar) 0.7% vs 0.7% f'cast, 0.4% prev Market Movement Recap 08:31 AM slightly stronger overnight and no immediate reaction to boatload of econ data. MBS up 7 ticks and 10yr down 2.8bps at 4.402 12:05 PM Fairly flat since the open. MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 4bps at 4.39 03:21 PM Near best levels. MBS up 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 4.8bps at 4.383 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-04302026 Thu, 30 Apr 2026 13:40:28 GMT 69f369fca6791958c5a842d9 Matthew Graham From an analytical standpoint, it's hard to offer new and interesting insights when the order of any given day is simply to observe broad war-related sentiment via oil prices.  From there, if bonds are diverging, we have a few things to discuss, but if bond yields are following, the case is closed. Today's case is mostly closed as the correlation is mostly there. The only minor divergence arrived after the boatload of AM econ data. It wasn't much of a move, but it was in a friendly direction despite sharply lower jobless claims. Perhaps the market was modestly relieved that year over year PCE "only" rose to 3.5%?  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-04292026 Wed, 29 Apr 2026 20:42:08 GMT 69f27c18a6791958c5a68e4a Matthew Graham Today's Weakness Mostly War-Related With Small Boost From Fed Because today was was a "Fed day" and because bonds hit their weakest levels of the day after the Fed announcement, we may look back on the selling and blame the Fed. In actuality, the Fed was only a small piece of the puzzle. Specifically, 10yr yields had already moved up from 4.34+ to 4.40 before the Fed announcement. At the 3pm CME close, there was only 1 more basis point of selling (4.41). The overnight/morning weakness was already covered in the morning commentary, but as a reminder, it had to do with the potential for a longer-term blockade of The Strait of Hormuz. There were no major issues with the Fed, but the market didn't like the fact that 3 dissenting voters preferred to abandon the vague reference to future rate cuts via the "additional adjustments" verbiage.  Econ Data / Events MBA Purchase Index (Apr)/24 177.7 vs -- f'cast, 175.6 prev MBA Refi Index (Apr)/24 977.9 vs -- f'cast, 1023.1 prev Mortgage (Mar)ket Index (Apr)/24 298.5 vs -- f'cast, 303.3 prev Building Permits (Mar) 1.372M vs 1.39M f'cast, 1.538M prev Building Permits (Feb) 1.538M vs -- f'cast, 1.386M prev Core CapEx (Mar) 3.3% vs 0.5% f'cast, 0.6% prev Durable goods (Mar) 0.8% vs 0.5% f'cast, -1.4% prev Housing starts number mm (Mar) 1.502M vs 1.40M f'cast, -- prev Market Movement Recap 08:31 AM weaker overnight and modest additional selling after 830am data.  MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2bps at 4.369 10:07 AM MBS down 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr up 5.3bps at 4.402 12:01 PM Some volatility in response to news that the US is considering renewed strikes in Iran, but losses have been erased since then. MBS still down about 30bps and 10yr up 5bps at 4.398 02:16 PM Slightly weaker after Fed announcement. MBS down 14 ticks (.44) and 10yr up 5.8bps at 4.406 02:53 PM Weakest levels. MBS down nearly half a point. 10yr up 7bps at 4.42 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-04292026 Wed, 29 Apr 2026 18:00:51 GMT 69f2556ca6791958c5a63c1a Matthew Graham Available Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in Developments in the Middle East for are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the U.S. economy are uncertain. economic outlook. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-04292026 Wed, 29 Apr 2026 13:31:40 GMT 69f21750a6791958c5a5c3bd Matthew Graham Last night's key news on the war involved reports of Trump telling aides to prepare for a prolonged blockade of Iran. The free flow of oil through Hormuz is the key market mover in this war, so it's no surprise to see oil prices lurch higher in response. Bond yields followed but have managed to hold under yesterday morning's highs so far. This morning's econ data definitely isn't rushing to help with Durable goods coming in much higher than expected. In other news, there is a Fed announcement today, but no chance of a cut or hike, and no dot plot. It's hard to imagine what could be said that the market doesn't already know (or fear, i.e. inflation expectations). Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-04282026 Tue, 28 Apr 2026 20:15:40 GMT 69f12390a6791958c5a432a9 Matthew Graham Modest Gains After Opening Weaker Tuesday ended up being a uneventful trading session despite 10yr yields hitting 3-week highs. Those highs were in place right at the open and things gradually improved from there. Markets are expressing a token amount of concern over the lack of progress on US/Iran peace, which  continues to be the biggest potential market mover. Notably, there was also an obvious reaction to Consumer Confidence data today (even though it was very small). This lets us know we can't tune out other econ data just because the broader momentum is more likely tied to geopolitical developments.  Econ Data / Events ADP Employment Change Weekly 39.25K vs -- f'cast, 54.75K prev Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (Feb) 0.9% vs 1.1% f'cast, 1.2% prev CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (Feb) 0.4% vs -- f'cast, -0.1% prev FHFA Home Price Index m/m (Feb) 0.0% vs 0.2% f'cast, 0.1% prev FHFA Home Prices y/y (Feb) 1.7% vs -- f'cast, 1.6% prev Consumer Confidence 92.8 vs 89.0 f'cast, 92.2 prev Market Movement Recap 09:14 AM Modestly weaker overnight. 10yr up 2bps at 4.362 and MBS down 3 ticks (.09). 11:07 AM MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.8bps at 4.359 02:29 PM MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.357. No reaction to 7 year auction Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-04282026 Tue, 28 Apr 2026 14:27:05 GMT 69f0d2b4a6791958c5a38c10 Matthew Graham Bonds sold off slowly and steadily overnight, largely tracing a similarly steady rise in oil prices. The latter is most easily attributed to reports that Trump is not happy with the latest Iran peace proposal although those reports stopped short of saying the proposal was flat-out rejected. There was additional volatility in oil prices surrounding news that the UAE is pulling out of OPEC, but that mostly resolved with oil moving off the highs (more competition, less supply throttling expected). Most recently a decent showing in Consumer Confidence is keeping bonds in a defensive stance. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-04272026 Mon, 27 Apr 2026 19:51:47 GMT 69efcd60a6791958c5a1a537 Matthew Graham Modest Weakness, But Range Persists Bonds lost ground today, but not for any particular reason. Most importantly, there was no major reaction to the lack of progress in peace talks over the weekend (which would have been hard considering the talks didn't happen). Earlier in the war, this sort of development would have had a more noticeable impact. At this point, markets are waiting on the biggest news. Until that news breaks, bonds are content to wander aimlessly in the same sideways range that's been intact for the entire month. For those who insist on assigning blame for today's modestly higher yields, the absence of peace talks was worth maybe a third of it. Beyond that, we'd consider things like the Treasury auction cycle and asset allocation among investors chasing all-time highs in stocks.  Market Movement Recap 09:13 AM Bonds modestly weaker on stalled peace talks. 10yr up 1.4bps at 4.317 and MBS down 3 ticks (.09). 11:48 AM MBS down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and an eight from the highs. 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.329 02:22 PM 10yr up 3.3bps at 4.335 and MBS still down 5 ticks (.16) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-04272026 Mon, 27 Apr 2026 13:44:14 GMT 69ef76a8a6791958c5a0f5aa Matthew Graham The word of the day is "stalled." You can't get far reading top news stories over the weekend without seeing it in reference to the negotiations that looked at least somewhat possible on Friday afternoon. At that time, official word was that Witkoff/Kushner were heading to Pakistan on Saturday morning to meet with Iran's FM Araghchi, but the US contingent never made the trek. Now this morning there are additional reports that a resumption of military operations is being considered. One would think this would make for a big hit to financial markets, but oil prices and bond yields are only modestly higher. And stocks are actually in slightly stronger territory, once again pushing new all-time highs. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-04242026 Fri, 24 Apr 2026 20:02:59 GMT 69ebdb38a6791958c59c115d Matthew Graham Similar Volatility But in a Friendlier Direction The bond market saw a roughly identical amount of volatility on each of the last 2 days of the week, but Friday's version played out in a friendlier direction. Headlines suggested improved prospects of peace negotiations over the weekend. While there is no scheduled talk with the US and Iran, high level reps from both sides are currently--or soon will be--in Pakistan. But the war headlines only get part of the credit. Bonds also got a boost from news that the DOJ dropped its case against Powell, thus paving the way for a Warsh confirmation. In the market's view, this improves the odds of a rate cut in 2026, even if only slightly.  2yr yields rallied much more than 10s, as one would expect when markets are trading Fed rate expectations.  Market Movement Recap 08:49 AM Roughly unchanged after modest 2-way volatility. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.4bps at 4.321 09:40 AM moving into weaker territory. MBS down 1 tick (.03) on the day and over an eighth from the early price plateau. 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.338 10:19 AM 10yr at lows of day, down 2.2bps at 4.303. MBS up 6 ticks (.19). Move follows new of DOJ potentially dropping Powell case 01:19 PM Mostly sideways since last update. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 1.5bps at 4.311 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs