http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mbs Mortgage Rates Blog https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-10302026 Fri, 30 Oct 2026 19:16:09 GMT 6ae4fb3c9f50a0a93e0df7c3 Matthew Graham Bonds Almost Able to Break Even Thanks to Tech Turmoil Tech stocks embarked on a wild ride starting with earnings releases after the bell yesterday. While today's recap title mentions "breaking even," if we were to measure today's bond market movement versus yesterday's 3pm ET levels, 10yr yields are more than 5bps lower. In other words, those earnings releases created a big late-day rally yesterday and today became largely about trying to hold onto the gains. By mid-day, bonds were a bit weaker with 10yr yields approaching 4.96%. Around 1240pm, news broke regarding Anthropic being unlikely to receive an "investment grade" rating after its IPO. This pushed the NASDAQ even deeper into negative territory and helped bonds make it most of the way back to "unchanged" by 3pm.  Econ Data / Events Employment Cost Index 0.8 vs 0.8 f'cast, 0.9 prev Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-10302026 Fri, 30 Oct 2026 13:59:33 GMT 6ae4b1689f50a0a93e0d652d Matthew Graham Bonds were initially stronger in the overnight session with 10yr yields briefly falling under 4.90%. The rally generally aligned with overnight losses in the stock market, at least at first. When European markets came online, bonds began drifting more sideways even as stocks gradually declined to new lows. Given that today is month-end and that much of this month has seen quite a lot of volatility, it's reasonable to expect compulsory month-end trades to set the tone. Translation: bonds could do their own thing for their own reasons regardless of what's going on in stocks. Some analysts are reporting that month-end rebalancing models are calling for selling some bonds and buying some stocks, but we wouldn't lose sleep over that one unless stocks end up surging into positive territory.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-10292026 Thu, 29 Oct 2026 21:08:21 GMT 6ae3c4b09f50a0a93e0bad58 Matthew Graham Tech Jitters are Back. Bonds Like It As has been the case for the past several weeks, the near-term fate of the rate rally is dependent on tech jitters. While those had leveled off in a sideways pattern over the first few days of the week, they resurfaced today, both at the NYSE open and close. The 4pm move was bigger for stocks and directly linked to weak guidance in Intel and Amazon earnings releases. Bonds were already moderately stronger on the day after the 9:30am gains, but improved even more after the 4pm NYSE close.  Econ Data / Events Core PCE (m/m) (Sep) 0.3% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.2% prev Core PCE (y/y) (Sep) 3.1% vs 3.1% f'cast, 3% prev GDPQ3 3.4% vs 3.2% f'cast, 2.2% prev Jobless Claims (Oct)/24 194.0K vs 199K f'cast, 194K prev Market Movement Recap 09:55 AM fairly sharp rally at 9:30am coincided with NYSE open and heavy losses in a few key tech names Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-10292026 Thu, 29 Oct 2026 13:48:09 GMT 6ae35d909f50a0a93e0adedc Matthew Graham PCE inflation was almost perfectly in line with even the unrounded expectations. The monthly core number was 0.32 vs 0.34 (or .3 vs .3 on most econ calendars). Perhaps the modest miss helps explain the modest drop in yields at 8:30am.  All in all though, it was a small enough response as to obviate any further consideration. Bonds experienced a much bigger move at the 9:30am NYSE open when multiple large tech companies saw their stocks plunge sharply (led by Alphabet aka Google). A few instances of new corporate bond issues have accounted for small bounces in yields (Microsoft and Verizon, specifically). Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-10282026 Wed, 28 Oct 2026 20:50:37 GMT 6ae26e809f50a0a93e092553 Matthew Graham Minimal Impact From Fed Fed day has come and gone with minimal fanfare. Markets ultimately found reason to downgrade expectations for future rate hikes (likely due to Warsh's general "wait and see" comments during the press conference), but at the expense of a bit of weakness in the longer end of the yield curve. In other words, 2yr yields fell and 10yr yields rose. Neither were appreciably far from levels seen 2 days ago.  Additionally, not all of the above should be attributed to the Fed. 10yr yields are actually ending the day lower compared to levels seen around noon (2 hours before the Fed announcement). Overnight weakness in the 10yr is easier to connect to lower funding costs for some of the neocloud companies that have recently been under the microscope. Afternoon gains corresponded with Oracle saying it anticipated lower funding needs.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-10282026 Wed, 28 Oct 2026 18:00:48 GMT 6ae246a89f50a0a93e08d1c9 Matthew Graham The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 12 10 – 0 2 vote: The Committee decided to raise maintain the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to at 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. Economic activity is expanding at a solid strong pace. While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. Inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support The accumulation of more information will help the Committee determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timelier timely return to the of inflation to the Committee's 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability. Voting against the monetary policy action were Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-10282026 Wed, 28 Oct 2026 14:38:21 GMT 6ae217c89f50a0a93e087671 Matthew Graham Coreweave stock moved higher again overnight and Coreweave bond yields continued lower, with some issues now back to yields seen 2 weeks ago. Treasuries/MBS have been doing their best to hold sideways after last week's rally, but can only do so much when that rally was driven by factors that are visibly unwinding. As for today's Fed announcement, the focus will be on the press conference in case markets can glean any clues about how the Fed's anticipated rate hike path may or may not line up with market expectations (there is no dot plot today). Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-10272026 Tue, 27 Oct 2026 20:40:41 GMT 6ae11aa89f50a0a93e06a864 Matthew Graham Boring, Sideways Day. Does Wednesday's Fed Announcement Even Matter? Neocloud concerns continued to experience a small correction/consolidation after last week's surge. Interest rates could have justified a bit of weakness as a result, but managed to hold fairly steady. Bond market indecision likely has more to do with that and less to do with any sort of Fed Day anticipation. Markets have almost fully priced in a "pause." Any Fed-induced volatility would thus be dependent on verbiage--either in the announcement itself or the 2:30pm ET press conference. This is one of those Fed meetings that could be entirely forgettable, but post-press-conference volatility should never be ruled out as a risk--even on seemingly low consequence Fed days.  Econ Data / Events Core Durable Goods (Sep) 0.5% vs 0.7% f'cast, 1.6% prev Durable goods (Sep) 1.8% vs 1.5% f'cast, 0% prev Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (Aug) 2.7% vs 2.5% f'cast, 2.5% prev CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (Aug) -0.4% vs -- f'cast, 0% prev FHFA Home Price Index m/m (Aug) 0.3% vs 0.2% f'cast, 0.3% prev FHFA Home Prices y/y (Aug) 2.4% vs -- f'cast, 2.6% prev Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-10272026 Tue, 27 Oct 2026 14:07:17 GMT 6ae0bf409f50a0a93e05f264 Matthew Graham "Neocloud" has entered the commentary. This is shorthand for the market segment in which Coreweave operates. Neocloud companies have been the epicenter of recent concerns in tech that have helped fuel the mid October bond rally.  Their negative momentum leveled off last Thursday--the same time bond yields bottomed. Neocloud stocks are up sharply this morning and their bond yields are falling. Coreweave yields are back to last Wednesday's levels (though still hugely elevated from early October levels). The consolidation mirrors the bond market over the past several sessions, although this morning's Durable Goods data made for a slight bump in yields. Wednesday's Fed announcement is likely the next major scheduled event that could serve as the jumping-off point for the next phase of momentum. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-10262026 Mon, 26 Oct 2026 20:15:10 GMT 6adfc34c9f50a0a93e04231f Matthew Graham Bonds Hold Ground Despite Some Healing in Tech Monday was exceptionally uneventful for the bond market--as is more often than not the case for data-free Mondays without any other major developments. There were some minor developments though. Tech stocks bounced back a bit, closing at their best level since last Wednesday. Corporate bond yields for Coreweave (a recent focal point for tech sector contagion potential) also moved slightly lower. On most recent occasions, that would imply upward pressure on mortgage rates. In that light, today's sideways performance was a victory. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs