http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mbs Mortgage Rates Blog https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-09182026 Fri, 18 Sep 2026 21:37:34 GMT 6aadbe381d0f9c937d2586e8 Matthew Graham Did Japan Sell Treasuries Today? Bonds sold off medium big on Friday in a move that offered little by way of overt explanations. There were reports of "rate checks" in the USD/JPY market--something that CAN precede the selling of U.S. bonds in order to buy JPY. Notably, there were no reports of actual intervention, but sometimes these things aren't revealed until the following trading day. If this explains today's weakness (and to be clear, we're not sure it does), it would be good for the U.S. bond market as it would mean 10yr yields still held under 5% despite added, artificial pressure. Causality investigations aside, we'd focus on the fact that 10yr yields held under 5% (albeit just barely), which is right where they were on the Tuesday afternoon before Fed day.  Econ Data / Events Building Permits (Aug) 1.394M vs 1.41M f'cast, 1.433M prev Continued Claims (Sep)/05 1730.0K vs 1780K f'cast, 1774K prev Housing starts number mm (Aug) 1.275M vs 1.31M f'cast, 1.239M prev Jobless Claims (Sep)/12 196K vs 208K f'cast, 206K prev Philly Fed Business Index (Sep) 37.8 vs 30.5 f'cast, 47.4 prev Philly Fed Prices Paid (Sep) 48.60 vs -- f'cast, 40.90 prev Market Movement Recap 08:41 AM MBS down roughly a quarter point and 10yr up 4.6bps at 4.979 10:30 AM MBS down 3/8ths and 10yr up 7.2bps at 5.005 02:14 PM MBS down 10 ticks (.31) and 10y up 6.6bps at 4.999 05:11 PM MBS down 3/8ths and 10yr up 6bps at 4.993 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-09182026 Fri, 18 Sep 2026 13:33:55 GMT 6aad4c8c1d0f9c937d24a81e Matthew Graham After Thursday's rather triumphant trading session in the bond market, today's moderate losses may be unpleasant or surprising to some. But they should be neither. Thursday was a bit exuberant in a good way, and Fridays often see position squaring. A bit of a pull-back is not only survivable but arguably more logical this morning, especially with oil prices being modestly higher. Bottom line: if MBS manage to hold this line without losing much more than a quarter point, and if 10yr yields end below 5%, compare today's closing levels to Tuesday's, consider that the Fed hiked this week and added 1-2 more hikes to the near-term outlook, and that bonds are somehow still better than the day before Fed day.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-09172026 Thu, 17 Sep 2026 22:39:17 GMT 6aac7ac81d0f9c937d23290a Matthew Graham Even More Confirmation Throughout The Day It was heartening to see bonds erase yesterday's losses by the time domestic trading got underway today. Unmitigated victory would have required flat/higher oil prices. Instead, we were forced to wonder how much credit to give lower oil prices versus the expectation that longer-term rates would paradoxically appreciate a more hawkish Fed stance. This uncertainty increasingly vanished throughout the day. Oil prices steadily rose more than $3 between 8:30am and 1pm, but bonds were sideways to stronger the entire time. There's still some caution suggested by a technical floor at 4.94%, but yields are now flirting with a break below that level in after-hours trading (even as oil prices remain more than $2 higher than this morning). We're not out of the woods yet, but today looks to have been a step in the right direction. All this having been said, rates aren't immune from future spikes if econ data, issuance, or fuel prices surprise to the upside.  Econ Data / Events Building Permits (Aug) 1.394M vs 1.41M f'cast, 1.433M prev Continued Claims (Sep)/05 1730.0K vs 1780K f'cast, 1774K prev Housing starts number mm (Aug) 1.275M vs 1.31M f'cast, 1.239M prev Jobless Claims (Sep)/12 196K vs 208K f'cast, 206K prev Philly Fed Business Index (Sep) 37.8 vs 30.5 f'cast, 47.4 prev Philly Fed Prices Paid (Sep) 48.60 vs -- f'cast, 40.90 prev Market Movement Recap 12:21 PM MBS up almost half a point and 10yr down 7.7bps at 4.942 01:56 PM MBS up half a point and 10yr down 7.2bps at 4.946 03:20 PM Best levels of the day. MBS up 18 ticks (.56) and 10yr down 8.5bps at 4.934 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-09172026 Thu, 17 Sep 2026 14:00:08 GMT 6aac00e81d0f9c937d2241da Matthew Graham Heading into yesterday's rate hike, recent evidence suggested the longer end of the bond market would appreciate a hike. There was no telling exactly how this would impact rates on Fed day itself--only that it was probably the lesser of two evils in the coming weeks. It was highly reassuring to see essentially no reaction to the rate hike in the first 30 minutes. But the press conference introduced additional selling pressure (obviously). Now this morning, bonds have gone a long way toward fulfilling the paradoxical prophecy. Even though a good amount of credit must be given to lower oil prices, there is still excess positive momentum in bonds that can't be explained by oil.  The following chart shows bond yields dropping much faster than oil prices this morning in order to return to a more correlated trend. This is a demonstration of excess strength in bonds because they've generally been doing a bit worse than a 1:1 oil price correlation would suggest. Most simply, there are several times in the past week where both yields and oil prices were at the same levels they are this morning. In other words, there's no longer any lasting evidence of yesterday's Fed press conference sell-off.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-09162026 Wed, 16 Sep 2026 22:08:06 GMT 6aab22401d0f9c937d20ad41 Matthew Graham Huge Volatility After Fed, But The Coming Days Will Tell The Story Bonds ended the day only modestly worse off than yesterday afternoon. That's a pretty impressive accomplishment considering the Fed hiked rates and communicated at least one more rate hike in 2026. Nearly half the FOMC sees at least 2 more hikes in this cycle. Warsh's comments ratcheted up the hawkishness considerably. Intraday market movement told a completely different story compared to the modest day-over-day change. The rate hike itself had no impact. Case in point bonds didn't move from 2pm to 2:30pm ET. It was only after Warsh's press conference began that bonds progressively tanked. So what was the x factor? In a nutshell, Warsh said the economy was strengthening, the Fed's focus is primarily on inflation (instead of labor market), and inflation trends haven't improved. This isn't one shocking revelation, but rather a coherent justification for a hawkish Fed policy stance that likely involves additional rate hikes with broad support from the committee. Had this been a token rate hike followed by a press conference in which Warsh expressed concern about whether the hike would ultimately prove to be justified, bonds may not have reacted nearly as much. As it stands, it's something of a sea-change from Warsh and sounds a lot more like a fairly substantial shift in the Fed's policy regime. While this is ultimately what's needed when it comes to lower mortgage rates in the future, the unmitigated level of hawkishness pushes the turning point farther into that future than a half-hearted rate hike would have.  Econ Data / Events Import prices mm (Aug) 0.7% vs 0.4% f'cast, -0.4% prev Retail Sales (Aug) 1.2% vs 0.8% f'cast, -0.6% prev Retail Sales Control Group MoM (Aug) 1.4% vs 0.4% f'cast, -0.4% prev y/y Headline CPI (Aug) 3.4% vs 3.4% f'cast, 3.4% prev Market Movement Recap 09:31 AM moderately stronger overnight. MBS up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 2.9bps at 4.973 11:40 AM MBS up almost 3/8ths and 10yr down 4.2bps at 4.959 02:30 PM MBS still up 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr down 4.8bps at 4.954 03:31 PM MBS now down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.1bps at 5.011 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-09162026 Wed, 16 Sep 2026 18:00:50 GMT 6aaae7a81d0f9c937d203a16 Matthew Graham The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a 9 12 – 3 0 vote: The Committee decided to maintain raise the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate. The Committee is continuing its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system. Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite pace. While uncertainty remains elevated uncertainty that owes, in owing, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East. geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient. Productivity growth is strong, and capital investment are strong. is robust. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. Inflation remains elevated relative to elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. goal. The Committee will deliver price stability. Voting against the monetary policy action were Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-09162026 Wed, 16 Sep 2026 14:24:23 GMT 6aaab5441d0f9c937d1fdd05 Matthew Graham There are perhaps no other Fed announcements in recent memory worthy of more anticipation than the one we'll get today. While some of the recent data could be used to argue patience, far more data suggests a hike. The market agrees based on recent moves in yields and Fed Funds Futures. The question remains as to whether Warsh has a firm conviction in one direction or another. The meeting is interesting because we're about to find out. Bonds are off to a stronger start, building on yesterday's technical support, but also possibly benefiting from lower oil prices overnight. Nevertheless, we don't really feel that the trading day begins until 2pm ET anyway. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-09152026 Tue, 15 Sep 2026 20:32:52 GMT 6aa9ba7c1d0f9c937d1e17e4 Matthew Graham Some Signs of Resilience But It's Still Anyone's Game After several consecutive business days of abject unpleasantness in the bond/mortgage market, Tuesday finally offered a modest consolation. During domestic trading hours, every attempt to push 10yr yields over 5% was met with a supportive bounce--presumably from value buyers targeting 5% as a good entry point to own 10yr notes for investment purposes. We wouldn't read too much into this just yet. It is a defensible conclusion today (especially in light of oil prices surging over to over $106), but Wednesday's Fed reaction could completely change the landscape. We'll discuss "what if" scenarios in today's recap video.  Market Movement Recap 09:16 AM MBS unchanged and 10yr up 1.7bps at 5.001 01:08 PM MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 2.2bps at 5.006 03:13 PM MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.6bps at 5.00 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-09152026 Tue, 15 Sep 2026 14:57:50 GMT 6aa96bf886291a4836f81e08 Matthew Graham With no meaningful econ data on tap today and no high stakes events, bonds are left to watch news headlines and attend to last-minute positioning goals before tomorrow's Fed announcement. There's a bit more of a disconnect between oil prices and bond yields than normal today. Earlier in the overnight session, yields actually led the way higher. In the past hour, however, oil is spiking and yields are trying to hold under yesterday's domestic session highs.  This might (MIGHT!) speak to some level of exhaustion among sellers in the long end of the curve, or some value buyers who like the idea of 5% rate of return on fixed income. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-09142026 Mon, 14 Sep 2026 19:52:07 GMT 6aa85f9c86291a4836f63d3f Matthew Graham Decent Mid-Day Recovery But No Change to Bigger Picture Monday wasn't too different from last Friday in that the bond market began the day with AM volatility that gave way to minimally changed yields by the close. The order was reversed, however, with the weaker trading in the AM and rally back to unchanged levels for the close. Another key difference was that the mid-day rally was clearly drew inspiration from measurable events (in this case, war-related newswires that helped oil prices recover most of the morning's increase. Shorter-dated yields underperformed as there was no meaningful improvement in Fed Funds Futures. In fact, rate hike odds increased ever-so-slightly as the day progressed. In the bigger picture, today and Friday speak to a leveling-off of negative momentum in the recent snowball selling trend. Unfortunately, this could be as simple as a circling of the wagons ahead of Wednesday's Fed announcement which is just as likely to cause another bearish breakout as it is to reinforce the technical ceiling. Market Movement Recap 09:02 AM MBS down more than an eighth and 10yr up 1.7bps at 4.987 12:29 PM back in positive territory after Trump headlines. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.947 03:30 PM MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 0.2bps at 4.972 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs