http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mbs Mortgage Rates Blog https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06102026 Wed, 10 Jun 2026 20:04:45 GMT 6a29d1b8a6791958c5011c8c Matthew Graham War Headlines Cause Mid-Day Reversal Bonds started the day inconsequentially weaker and picked up some gains after CPI came in a hair lower than expected at the core level. Just before noon, yields began rising and ultimately hit the 3pm close up a few bps versus yesterday. MBS were down about an eighth of a point, but it wasn't enough for the average lender to bother with a reprice. A forensic audit of the afternoon weakness leaves only one explanation: war headlines. Specifically, Trump said the U.S. would be "attacking hard again today." The market may increasingly take these headlines with a grain of salt, but it doesn't ignore them. Both oil prices and bond yields moved higher after that and there were no notable alternative explanations for the 10yr weakness although the aftermath of the 10yr Treasury auction may have caused some supply/demand imbalances that contributed. Econ Data / Events m/m CORE CPI (May) 0.2% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.4% prev m/m Headline CPI (May) 0.5% vs 0.5% f'cast, 0.6% prev y/y CORE CPI (May) 2.9% vs 2.9% f'cast, 2.8% prev y/y Headline CPI (May) 4.2% vs 4.2% f'cast, 3.8% prev Market Movement Recap 08:41 AM Slightly stronger after CPI. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 0.6bps at 4.526 (down from 4.538 before the data). 11:34 AM little changed from earlier levels. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr roughly unchanged at 4.519 11:55 AM Some volatility after Trump comments on attacking Iran. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1bp at 4.529 02:55 PM Bouncing back from weakest levels. MBS now down 3 ticks (.09) vs 6 ticks (.19) earlier.  10yr now up 2.3bps at 4.541 vs intraday highs of 4.559 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06102026 Wed, 10 Jun 2026 13:52:25 GMT 6a297b00a6791958c5007147 Matthew Graham Most understand this, but some forget: CPI numbers on econ calendars are not prices. They're the change in prices. We bring that up in case anyone thinks today's core monthly CPI of 0.2 means that prices are lower than last month when the core was 0.4. While it's a decent monthly number and lower than the expected 0.3, it's also 2.4% if repeated for 12 months (still above the 2.0% target). Plus, we often forget that the 2.0% inflation target is for headline CPI--not core--and that is running at 4.2% y/y presently. Thankfully, forecasters were right on target with headline expectations, so despite being a lot higher than anyone would like, the bond market is not surprised and thus holding at levels just slightly better than before the data. If you see a chart of Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER), remember that last month's pop was driven by the October data being zeroed out due to the government shutdown combined with the fact that OER cohorts are only compared every 6 months. Thus April's CPI (the pop in the chart below) involves an April vs October comparison to update the monthly data. Today's data involves a May vs November comparison, and we had data for November. Excluding food, energy, and shelter, CPI was up 0.273--a slower pace than last month. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06092026 Tue, 09 Jun 2026 20:38:08 GMT 6a28886ca6791958c5febe4e Matthew Graham Bonds End at Strongest Levels Unlike yesterday, which saw an uneventful open give way to intraday weakness, today's momentum was mostly friendly. Bonds avoided panicking in the morning hours. Mid-day war-related headlines made for some quick 2-way trading in the noon hour, but yields never went any higher than the AM highs. After sorting out that volatility, steady gain brought yields to the lowest levels of the day in the final hour of trading. For context, this is right on the highest edge of the short-term range seen in the week and a half leading up to the jobs report.  Econ Data / Events NFIB Business Optimism Index (May) 95.3 vs 96.0 f'cast, 95.9 prev ADP Employment Change Weekly 29K vs -- f'cast, 35.75K prev Trade Gap (Apr) -55.90B vs $-56.1B f'cast, $-60.3B prev Market Movement Recap 08:23 AM A hair stronger overnight. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 2bps at 4.543 01:38 PM MBS up 2 ticks and 10yr down 3.6bps at 4.528 04:15 PM MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.4bps at 4.52 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06092026 Tue, 09 Jun 2026 13:51:52 GMT 6a282980a6791958c5fe00a9 Matthew Graham For the second day in a row , bonds are starting out in modestly stronger territory, but let's hope we don't repeat yesterday's performance. That left yields even higher at the close than they were on Friday afternoon. Today's overnight gains leave yields in similar territory to yesterday morning. One redeeming technical development is that yields were willing to move below yesterday's pivot point point at 4.543. This doesn't necessarily mean anything, but it's better than a sharp stick in the eye. With limited econ data, we wait for any relevant war-related developments and, secondarily, concessionary or reactive tradeflows surrounding Treasury auctions. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06082026 Mon, 08 Jun 2026 21:18:45 GMT 6a27404ca6791958c5fc5ba1 Matthew Graham Bonds Faded in the Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery Oil prices and bond yields started the overnight session higher, but both moved to the lows of the day just after 9:30am. From then on, oil went broadly sideways while bonds sold off gradually. If oil had instead moved higher into the afternoon, we might not care about the bond market weakness. But as it stands, we have bond-specific defensiveness in the afternoon replacing the modicum of bond-specific bullishness we noted in the morning commentary. Not the end of the world, but not ideal. Market Movement Recap 09:13 AM Sideways to slightly stronger. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.528 10:40 AM 10yr yields are up 2bps at 4.552 and MBS down 5 ticks (.16).  03:27 PM MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 2.3bps at 4.555. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06082026 Mon, 08 Jun 2026 13:57:39 GMT 6a26d92ca6791958c5fb8c55 Matthew Graham Things got a bit worse before they got better over the weekend. 10yr yields were as high as 4.58% in overnight trading, but are now roughly unchanged in early domestic trading. Oil prices mirrored the same movement overnight, but haven't recovered as much as bond yields. In fact, bonds arguably led the move lower with a gradual rally starting just after 5am ET. Most of the drop in oil prices followed news that Israel agreed to halt today's attacks in Lebanon. There is no big ticket econ data on tap. War headlines remain relevant as does the bond market's ongoing range-finding after Friday's rout. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06052026 Fri, 05 Jun 2026 20:42:40 GMT 6a234398a6791958c5f69c4f Matthew Graham At Least It Didn't Get Much Worse After The Initial Rout If you had to find something reassuring to say about the bond market today, it would be that there wasn't much selling after 9am ET. Unfortunately, there was a whole lot of selling in the prior 30 minutes. Try as they might, analysts couldn't find any obvious holes in the strong picture painted by the jobs report. Stocks got completely destroyed as well--evidence of the jump in Fed rate hike expectations adding to a tech correction that was already underway. An Iran war peace deal remains the biggest market moving prospect on the horizon, but traders will be a bit more interested in labor market data going forward. Econ Data / Events Non Farm Payrolls (May) 172K vs 85K f'cast, 115K prev Participation Rate (May) 61.8% vs -- f'cast, 61.8% prev Unemployment rate mm (May) 4.3% vs 4.3% f'cast, 4.3% prev Market Movement Recap 08:38 AM Big selling after jobs report. MBS down 3/8ths and 10yr up 5.7bps at 4.533 10:46 AM MBS down 18 ticks (.56) and 10yr up 6.5bps at 4.541 04:27 PM MBS down just over half a point and 10yr up 6.2bps at 4.539 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06052026 Fri, 05 Jun 2026 14:08:47 GMT 6a22e704a6791958c5f5e094 Matthew Graham Buzz has been growing around the labor market for the past several months, but today's jobs report went the extra mile to make it official. The job market is officially re-accelerating. Actually, the better claim would be that the jobs market is simply attempting to level off after a very long post-covid normalization. Most of today's charts show that quite well.  Payrolls surged to 172k vs an 85k forecast. The previous report was revised up to 179k from 115k. The unemployment rate held steady at a historically low 4.3% and dropped modestly on an unrounded basis. Volatility in the payroll count has been higher since Fall 2025. This is also apparent in the charts and it can be partially (maybe fully?) explained by the ongoing drop in survey response rates, both for consumers businesses (note the BLS data on response rates only runs through Jan/Feb). Meanwhile, the bond market left no doubt that it is more than willing to react to econ data if that data is important enough. 10yr yields are up 5.5bps instantly and MBS are down almost half a point. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06042026 Thu, 04 Jun 2026 20:12:53 GMT 6a21eb10a6791958c5f41cd5 Matthew Graham Modest Gains Maintained After Intraday Slippage Slippage is a bit less severe than leakage. Neither of them will turn a green day red, but they both erode morning gains. Today's gains primarily followed a pre-market comment from Trump who said the US was in the middle of final negotiations to end the Iran war. Bonds hit their best levels shortly thereafter and then the slippage set in. The backtracking was more evident in Treasuries with the 10yr losing almost half of the day-over-day gains. MBS managed to hold firmer, and were still broadly in line with the middle of the AM range by 4pm. Friday brings the jobs report. While it hasn't been as big of a flashpoint recently, we'd never rule out a reaction in the event of a big beat/miss. Econ Data / Events Jobless Claims (May)/30 225K vs 213K f'cast, 215K prev Market Movement Recap 08:42 AM Decently stronger overnight and no drama so far. MBS up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 4.1bps at 4.455 11:34 AM Sideways so far and just a hair weaker.  MBS still up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 3.1bps at 4.465 03:31 PM Treasuries near weakest levels but 10yr still down 2.5bps at 4.471. MBS still up 6 ticks (.19). Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06042026 Thu, 04 Jun 2026 13:14:33 GMT 6a2188a0a6791958c5f35605 Matthew Graham The following newswire hit about an hour before the open: TRUMP: US IN THE MIDDLE OF FINAL NEGOTIATIONS TO END IRAN WAR.  Bond yields and oil prices had already fallen modestly up to that point, but more than doubled the overnight rally after that. Yields are thus starting the day roughly 4bps lower, perfectly erasing the entirety of Wednesday's losses. Jobless Claims had no impact at 8:30am ET. An hour earlier, Challenger Layoffs possibly moved the needle microscopically, but it's just as likely that the ongoing drop in oil prices did the trick. There's no other big ticket data for the day, so we're headline watching and waiting for Friday's jobs report. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs