http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mbs Mortgage Rates Blog https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-04102026 Fri, 10 Apr 2026 20:22:29 GMT 69d96ae8a6791958c57cc8a1 Matthew Graham Bonds Drift Weaker Despite Lower Oil Prices Although they still technically made positive progress versus the end of last week, bonds ended the day moderately weaker. Lower oil prices offered no support, but that's a tricky correlation these days. Longer-term oil contracts continue lining up with bond yield movement more reliably. To be sure, we can at least consider the impact of this morning's CPI data based on decent trading volume at the time and a reversal of the sideways to slightly stronger momentum in the preceding few hours, but it's impossible to say that it continued weighing on bonds for the rest of the session. Econ Data / Events m/m CORE CPI (Mar) 0.2% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.2% prev m/m Headline CPI (Mar) 0.9% vs 0.9% f'cast, 0.3% prev y/y CORE CPI (Mar) 2.6% vs 2.7% f'cast, 2.5% prev y/y Headline CPI (Mar) 3.3% vs 3.3% f'cast, 2.4% prev Market Movement Recap 10:58 AM Slightly weaker this AM but leveling off with MBS unchanged and 10yr up 3bps at 4.306 12:46 PM weakest levels. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 4.2bps at 4.319 03:35 PM flat for the past few hours with MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 4bps at 4.316 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-04102026 Fri, 10 Apr 2026 13:06:20 GMT 69d904f4a6791958c57bf95d Matthew Graham The median forecast for monthly core CPI was 0.28% (0.3 after rounding up for most econ calendars). Today's actual number was 0.196--obviously quite a bit lower than forecasts. In addition, supercore fell to .179 from .349. Despite those victories, forecasts correctly predicted a sharp rise in headline inflation which moved up from 2.4% to 3.3% year over year.  Apparently, it's hard to get excited about buying bonds with headline inflation over 3%, no matter how much one expects it. Yields are actually modestly higher after the data, adding to modest overnight weakness. That said, through 6am, 10yr yields have held in a narrow range that has topped out 2bps below yesterday's highs.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-04092026 Thu, 09 Apr 2026 19:55:22 GMT 69d81260a6791958c57a82b5 Matthew Graham Roughly Unchanged After Moderate Headline-Driven Volatility As has been the recent custom, there were dueling headlines concerning the Iran war today with opposing claims regarding the status of the Israel/Lebanon ceasefire. If that sounds like kind of a stretch when it comes to bond market significance, bond traders agreed.  That said, it was still traded to some extent. This resulted in mid-day volatility that took bonds from slightly weaker to slightly stronger territory, and then back to being roughly unchanged. Econ data was a relative non-event in the morning, but Friday's data has a slightly better chance of garnering a response. Econ Data / Events Jobless Claims (Apr)/04 219K vs 210K f'cast, 202K prev Continued Claims (Mar)/28 1794.0K vs 1840K f'cast, 1841K prev Core PCE (m/m) (Feb) 0.4% vs 0.4% f'cast, 0.4% prev Core PCE (y/y) (Feb) 3.0% vs 3% f'cast, 3.1% prev GDPQ4 0.5% vs 0.7% f'cast, 4.4% prev GDP Final SalesQ4 0.3% vs 0.4% f'cast, 4.5% prev Market Movement Recap 08:37 AM Very flat overnight. Slightly weaker after data. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up half a bp at 4.30 10:31 AM weakest levels. MBS down 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr up 1.4bps at 4.311 11:38 AM 10s now down 1bp at 4.285. MBS are within 1 tick (.03) of unchanged. 01:39 PM Best levels of the day for 10s, down 3.2bps at 4.264.  MBS unchanged (also near opening highs). 03:37 PM Off the best levels, but not with sustained selling. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.288 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-04092026 Thu, 09 Apr 2026 13:08:36 GMT 69d7b374a6791958c579c175 Matthew Graham The overnight session leading into this morning's open was completely sideways--especially compared to yesterday's example. The boatload of econ data line items did nothing to change that. Expectations weren't high anyway. GDP (Q4) and monthly PCE (February) are both too stale to matter. Jobless Claims were a mixed bag with initial claims rising substantially and continued claims falling off a cliff (lowest since May 2024). But again, bonds have done nothing with the data and trading levels are almost perfectly flat to start another day of watching war headlines.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-04082026 Wed, 08 Apr 2026 20:33:18 GMT 69d6ca40a6791958c5781921 Matthew Graham Bonds Lose Almost All The Overnight Gains Bonds rallied sharply overnight--adding onto an already decent rally yesterday afternoon that took 10yr yields from 4.38% to 4.23% in less than 24 hours. Now at Wednesday's close, we're back to unchanged levels near 4.30%.  The move follows a similar correction seen in longer-term oil futures and, in a general sense, a news cycle that made the ceasefire seem increasingly tenuous as the day progressed. The absence of a bigger, sustained rally speaks to the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. withdrawal from the Middle East as well as lingering impacts on energy costs that may still flow through to inflation data. Market Movement Recap 09:08 AM logically stronger overnight and holding gains steadily so far. MBS up almost 3/8ths and 10yr down 5.2bps at 4.244 10:58 AM MBS up 5 ticks (.16) but down a quarter point from highs. 10yr down 2.8bps at 4.268, but up more than 3bps from lows.  02:09 PM No reaction to 10yr auction or Fed minutes. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.274 02:44 PM New lows. MBS just barely better than unchanged, and same story for 10yr yield at 4.293 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-04082026 Wed, 08 Apr 2026 13:06:34 GMT 69d661f4a6791958c5774c2a Matthew Graham The wheels were already in motion by the time yesterday's recap came out, and participants in the MBS Live chat room were already high-fiving as we watched overnight price movement yesterday evening (and also hoping there wouldn't be some counterintuitive head fake).  As the domestic session gets underway, things are proceeding very logically with bonds building just a bit on last night's rally and stocks doing the same. Oil prices were the earliest adopters and haven't improved on their initial drop, but they're close enough to the lows (down more than 20% from the highs). There's no big ticket data on the calendar today, so the gameplan is to babysit the rally and adapt accordingly.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-04072026 Tue, 07 Apr 2026 20:39:57 GMT 69d579eca6791958c575a3c2 Matthew Graham Wednesday Could Be Entirely Different April 7th has been one of the most important days on the calendar for the Iran war due to deadline for Iran to accept Trump's terms or face major escalation. If the escalation was even remotely similar to Trump's threats, it would all but preclude a quick end to the war and especially the market-related fallout. heading into the close, Pakistan floated an option for a 2-week ceasefire in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Markets responded favorably to notion with stocks and bond both rallying and oil prices falling to session lows. Given the absolute and severe nature of the alternative, it would be a surprise if tomorrow didn't involve a larger than normal move in one direction or the other. Econ Data / Events ADP Employment Change Weekly 26K vs -- f'cast, 10K prev Core CapEx (Feb) 0.6% vs 0.4% f'cast, 0% prev Durable goods (Feb) -1.4% vs -0.5% f'cast, 0% prev Market Movement Recap 09:03 AM Flat overnight. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down just under 1bp at 4.331 09:41 AM Down an eighth of a point in MBS and 10yr up 1.7bps at 4.356 11:30 AM Near weakest levels. MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 2.3bps at 4.364 03:07 PM Decent recovery. MBS down only an eighth and 10yr down almost half a bp at 4.336 04:34 PM well into the green now on ceasefire optimism. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.5bps at 4.305 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-04072026 Tue, 07 Apr 2026 13:34:35 GMT 69d51650a6791958c574def1 Matthew Graham Tonight brings 8pm ET deadline for Iran's response to U.S. demands (opening shipping channels among other things). If there's no response, Trump has threatened to attack critical infrastructure like bridges, power plants, etc.--a major escalation that would all but guarantee a much longer run of high oil prices (and all that goes with it). Reports of progress in peace talks (or lack thereof) are all over the map depending on who's reporting and when. If there's a genuine de-escalation (which could be announced hours before the deadline), you'll know it based on the market response. If it happens after the close, futures/forex markets would still provide evidence of the market's reaction. Between now and then, it's just a waiting game with no clear direction. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-04062026 Mon, 06 Apr 2026 19:33:03 GMT 69d41930a6791958c5730676 Matthew Graham Holiday-Adjacent Waiting Game Monday may not have been an official holiday for the U.S. bond market, but it way as well have been. Volume certainly acted the part, which is no surprise considering overseas holiday closures. Headlines and data had a limited impact, at best. In general the market is waiting to see what happens in Iran after tomorrow night's deadline on Trump's ultimatum to reopen shipping channels. Econ Data / Events ISM N-Mfg PMI (Mar) 54.0 vs 55 f'cast, 56.1 prev ISM Services Employment (Mar) 45.2 vs -- f'cast, 51.8 prev ISM Services New Orders (Mar) 60.6 vs -- f'cast, 58.6 prev ISM Services Prices (Mar) 70.7 vs -- f'cast, 63.0 prev Market Movement Recap 09:03 AM A hair weaker overnight but rallying into positive territory in early trading. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.332 01:05 PM MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 0.7bps at 4.334 03:05 PM MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.331 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-04062026 Mon, 06 Apr 2026 13:36:21 GMT 69d3c5fca6791958c5725f0a Matthew Graham Much of the international trading community remains on holiday today, making for lower volume and liquidity in the US. Bonds have managed to mostly shrug off Friday's stronger jobs report--a fact that we'd attribute mainly to the focus on the unemployment rate over the balmy payroll count. Additionally, war-related developments remain near the top of the heap of relevant market movers until their impacts translate more forcefully to economic data. On that note, we'll get ISM Services data this morning and CPI on Friday--both for the month of March. The weekend offered no meaningful changes in the status of the war other than the notion of a 45 day ceasefire being floated, but not yet approved by either side. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs