http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mbs Mortgage Rates Blog https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-08102026 Mon, 10 Aug 2026 20:00:34 GMT 6a7a3c0ca6791958c5826756 Matthew Graham Issuance and Oil Strike Back Oil prices continue to ebb and flow in concert with the Iran war news cycle. There's no set schedule for such things, but there have been several Mondays where that narrative shifts in the opposite direction from wherever we left off at the end of the previous week. Last Wednesday was a recent low for oil and prices have risen since then. Today's increase was a bit of an acceleration so it's no surprise to see bond yields follow. Bonds also saw some mid-day pressure from an active corporate debt issuance landscape, but it's just as fair to say both oil prices and bonds yields have returned to the exact same levels seen during Tuesday's pre-market hours before the early rally. Market Movement Recap 09:47 AM Weaker overnight and losing more ground now. 10yr up 4.1bps at 4.688.  MBS down 7 ticks (.22). 12:53 PM MBS at lows, down 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr up 5.4bps at 4.701 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-08102026 Mon, 10 Aug 2026 14:32:20 GMT 6a79efe0a6791958c581cfbe Matthew Graham Recent experience suggests the safest assumption about oil prices and bond yields is that they will pop and drop with reasonable regularity. In other words, lower prices/yields for a few days following friendly war-related headlines tend to give way to unfriendly headlines and a market reversal. Wash, rinse, repeat. The new week is starting off with unfriendly news and higher oil/yields. There's not much sense in attempting to dig any deeper on market analysis so far today. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-08072026 Fri, 07 Aug 2026 21:21:13 GMT 6a765b78a6791958c57d0168 Matthew Graham Not Quite The Rally You'd Expect, But a Rally Nonetheless Today's vitals might be a bit confusing at first glance. Payrolls came in at -23k versus forecasts of 80k. At most moments in history, that would be worth a substantial rally. Today it was only worth 3bps in the 10yr and a quarter point in MBS. To be fair, it was worth even less without a late day drop in oil prices for unrelated reasons. But at this moment in history, low payroll counts are far more common and they're doing far less to influence the unemployment rate (case in point, today's FELL to 4.1% from 4.2%). This went a long way toward offsetting the drop in payrolls. Nonetheless, payrolls remain very important to traders even if economists have shifted more of their focus to other metrics.  Econ Data / Events Average earnings mm (Jul) 0.1% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.3% prev Non Farm Payrolls (Jul) -23K vs 80K f'cast, 57K prev Participation Rate (Jul) 61.4% vs -- f'cast, 61.5% prev Unemployment rate mm (Jul) 4.1% vs 4.2% f'cast, 4.2% prev Market Movement Recap 09:06 AM sharply stronger after jobs data but off the very best levels. MBS up 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 5.3bps at 4.625 11:20 AM MBS up 7 ticks now (.22) and 10yr down 2.5bps at 4.652 (well off the lows of 4.603) 02:38 PM Very flat. MBS still up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 2bps at 4.658 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-08072026 Fri, 07 Aug 2026 13:05:21 GMT 6a75e648a6791958c57c1c07 Matthew Graham Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) FELL 23k versus an 80k forecast.  Last month was revised down as well. From a traditional market-watching perspective, this is pure rally fuel. Indeed, bonds are rallying sharply so far. Let's hope it sticks. Why wouldn't it? As labor force dynamics have shifted, it doesn't take much job growth (or perhaps any?) to keep the unemployment rate steady. In fact, unemployment dropped in today's report, though it should be noted it's offset by a lower labor force participation rate (meaning unemployment basically held steady). We've seen some shifts in trading patterns after jobs reports in the past year, so don't assume this rally completely sticks (it could, and that would be great, but it's not as much of a given as it would have been if these numbers came out in 2024).  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-08062026 Thu, 06 Aug 2026 19:05:00 GMT 6a74e928a6791958c57a5e55 Matthew Graham Almost Like Clockwork Almost like clockwork, after several days spent mostly rallying on a headline-driven drop in oil prices, bonds reversed course as the tone of the headlines changed and oil prices bounced. That said, oil didn't bounce too much today. The rest of the drama for bonds came courtesy of a big corporate bond announcement before the open. Yields remain safely under supportive ceilings for now, but weekend-adjacent days have been prime candidates for war headline volatility. And as always, the jobs report can never be ruled out as a source of inspiration for better or worse.  Econ Data / Events Jobless claims 199k vs 202k f'cast, 198k prev Market Movement Recap 09:18 AM Moderately weaker overnight on a combo of oil and corporate bond issuance.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 2.4bps at 4.637 11:46 AM MBS Down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 4.5bps at 4.658 12:23 PM MBS now down 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr up 5.9bps at 4.673 02:20 PM Sideways at weakest levels. MBS down 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr up 5.9bps at 4.672 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-08062026 Thu, 06 Aug 2026 15:04:59 GMT 6a74b0e8a6791958c579ebee Matthew Graham It's as good of a day as any to revisit our primer on corporate debt issuance given that it's having an impact on bonds today.  Alphabet announced a $25bln bond offering around 7:45am ET, and yields instantly moved 2bps higher. Before that, there was nearly 2bps of weakness as bonds followed oil prices modestly higher. Since the start of the domestic session, things have been calm. Econ data was a non-event. Both MBS and Treasuries are holding near yesterday's weakest levels (not a huge deal considering the narrow range).  Lastly, this could simply be viewed as a quick, token pull-back ahead of jobs report Friday.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-08052026 Wed, 05 Aug 2026 19:28:18 GMT 6a739d84a6791958c577fffb Matthew Graham Bonds Shake Off Mid-Day Weakness to Hold Mostly Steady Bonds took a break from their recent trend of moderate day over day movement to hold relatively steady on Wednesday. Econ data didn't get in the way in any noticeable way.  If anything, ISM data briefly helped bonds move away from the day's weaker levels. But the key underlying consideration was a stable, sideways performance in fuel prices. MBS and Treasuries were technically a hair weaker, but it's just as fair to say they were "unchanged." Familiar risks remain in the day's ahead depending on Iran war headlines and Friday's NFP. Econ Data / Events ADP Employment 44k vs 70k f'cast, 95k prev ISM Biz Activity (Jul) 59.1 vs -- f'cast, 55.4 prev ISM N-Mfg PMI (Jul) 54.1 vs 54.5 f'cast, 54.0 prev ISM Services Employment (Jul) 47.4 vs -- f'cast, 51.2 prev ISM Services New Orders (Jul) 57.2 vs -- f'cast, 55.1 prev ISM Services Prices (Jul) 70.3 vs -- f'cast, 67.7 prev Market Movement Recap 07:53 AM Bonds set to open fairly flat after initial overnight gains and a modest pull-back.  10yr down half a bp at 4.611 10:02 AM No major reaction to ISM data, but some weakness in advance. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.628 11:58 AM MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up  3.7 bps 4.267 03:07 PM Off weakest levels and holding sideways.  MBS roughly unchanged and 10yr up half a bp at 4.619 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-08052026 Wed, 05 Aug 2026 12:55:43 GMT 6a7340f0a6791958c57748a6 Matthew Graham With the potential for a Hormuz deal floated earlier in the week, a more substantive announcement remains the biggest opportunity for the bond market until Friday's jobs report (and even then, could supersede the jobs report depending on the details). Conversely, another diplomatic breakdown or another re-escalation would be the biggest risk. There were no no hints of either eventuality overnight and the flat trading levels in bonds confirm that. In the meantime, we'll have some B-team data in the form of ISM Services this morning at 10am ET. This report isn't guaranteed to cause a reaction, but it certainly reserves that right if it falls appreciably far from forecasts. As always, the employment component of the ISM data carries some weight given that it adds another solid anecdote ahead of Friday's big jobs report. Oil prices drifted just a hair higher after initial overnight gains, and bonds have followed, but the movement is so small that it's just as fair to say everything is sideways so far. In the bigger picture, yields have made a nice re-entry into the prevailing long-term trend channel, but it would be more reassuring to see some willingness to explore the lower boundary--something that hasn't been palatable since the re-escalation of the war that played out in July. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-08042026 Tue, 04 Aug 2026 19:29:31 GMT 6a724c04a6791958c575947c Matthew Graham Solid Showing For Logical Reasons Money flooded back into both sides of the market in a major way (albeit more "major" for the stock market) after Bessent said we could be days away from a new deal on Hormuz transit. Oil plunged to the lowest levels since July 13th and bond yields were willing to follow (also nearly back to 7/13 levels). MBS picked up more than quarter point and multiple lenders repriced for the better as the gains came in waves throughout the morning trading hours. Familiar risks remain. We've seen plenty of back and forth on the state of the war, but we can say the market seemed more willing than normal to buy into this latest pivot. Beyond that, econ data is a factor this week for bonds with ISM Services on Wednesday and the jobs report on Friday. Dare we say that the jobs report is likely not quite as big of a risk/opportunity as ongoing oil price volatility? We'll let you know on Friday around 8:40am ET.    Econ Data / Events JOLTS Job openings 7.359m vs 7.400m f'cast, 7.537m prev Market Movement Recap 08:56 AM Stronger start as Bessent floats notion of Hormuz deal this week. Oil and bond yields down. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 1.5bps at 4.66 (down almost 5bps from overnight highs). 12:18 PM MBS up 11 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 5bps at 4.624 03:10 PM MBS still up 11 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 5.3bps at 4.621 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-08042026 Tue, 04 Aug 2026 13:39:38 GMT 6a71f9fca6791958c574f0f0 Matthew Graham This morning is offering another installment of hope for some form of progress in Iran. In today's case, it was Bessent floating the notion of possible Hormuz deal as early as this week. Markets will believe it when they see it, of course, but they're certainly willing to trade the hope. After moving modestly higher overnight, oil prices and bond yields are quickly lower in response to the headlines. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs