http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mbs Mortgage Rates Blog https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-05212026 Thu, 21 May 2026 13:19:44 GMT 6a0f14cca6791958c5d57c20 Matthew Graham Bonds spent most of the overnight session moving sideways to slightly stronger, but everything changed at 6:20am. That's when news broke regarding a statement from Iran's Khamenei saying that Uranium should not leave the country. Given that this is a sticking point for peace negotiations, the response in bonds/oil/etc was immediate and clear. Yields rose from 4.575 to 4.62 and continue to trade near there ever since. While there was a decent little chunk of line items on the econ calendar at 8:30am this morning, none of them generated any volume or volatility. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-05202026 Wed, 20 May 2026 20:19:36 GMT 6a0e25bca6791958c5d3c87b Matthew Graham Full Reversal And Then Some Bonds more than made up from Tuesday's rout with a massive rally on Wednesday. Unlike Tuesday's move, which was driven by bond-market-specific selling pressure on the part of one account's massive liquidations, Wednesday's rally was broad-based and driven by war-related headlines. Specifically, newswires suggested the U.S. and Iran are now very close to agreeing on a plan to end the war. The market isn't just hearing "wolf!" It's pretty sure it's seeing an actual wolf on the horizon. This is important and ongoing proof of concept regarding the prospect of additional improvement in the event speculation becomes reality. Conversely, it's also a reminder that things can change quickly if the peace narrative deteriorates in coming days. Market Movement Recap 08:49 AM moderately stronger overnight. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 2.1bps at 4.646 10:27 AM gaining some ground on Pakistan headlines (potential final draft of peace terms tomorrow). 10yr down 3.7bps at 4.629 and MBS up just over a quarter point. 01:18 PM Near best levels. MBS up 3/8ths and 10yr down 8.8bps at 4.58 02:53 PM MBS up 5/8ths and 10yr down 10bps at 4.567 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-05202026 Wed, 20 May 2026 14:24:52 GMT 6a0dd288a6791958c5d32346 Matthew Graham Tuesday's massive wave of bond-specific weakness still has the analytical community scratching its collective head. Our contacts are either saying nothing or telling us they're just as perplexed. So far this morning, there hasn't been any sort of repeat performance.  Lower oil prices have helped bonds find their footing, but the move has relied on breaking news regarding the potential for the final text of the peace agreement to be drafted by tomorrow. On the calendar front, the 2pm FOMC Minutes release is the only thing that seems like it might be relevant, but as a reminder, this is just a more detailed account of the meeting that took place 3 weeks ago, and we've heard plenty of Fed speakers clarify their outlook over those 3 weeks.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-05192026 Tue, 19 May 2026 20:57:48 GMT 6a0cdd9ca6791958c5d1668c Matthew Graham Whales Making Waves in Treasury Futures Nerd alert: there's no way to discuss what happened in the bond market today without getting a bit nerdy. Reason being, there was an absolute deluge of block trades in Treasury futures (over $20bln--the biggest day we can remember for outright block trades). There are a few different possibilities for how this went down, but the size, structure, and timing of those trades suggests that only one or two massive players were involved. The saving grace of a move like this is that it means there was not broad-based selling pressure from a majority of the market. And although this could be viewed as "thought leadership" that inspires other sellers, those sellers had a chance to jump on the bandwagon today and instead held their ground.  Econ Data / Events ADP Employment Change Weekly 42.25K vs -- f'cast, 33.0K prev Market Movement Recap 09:04 AM Gradually weaker overnight with no standout market movers. MBS down almost 3/8ths and 10yr up 4bs at 4.63 11:24 AM MBS down 5/8ths and 10yr up 8.6bps at 4.675 02:46 PM Recovering a bit. MBS down just over half a point and 10yr up 7.2bps at 4.662 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-05192026 Tue, 19 May 2026 13:40:02 GMT 6a0c767ca6791958c5d09abd Matthew Graham Ever since the initial 2 week ceasefire was announced in the Iran war, the bond market has adhered to trend channels that align with either de-escalation or re-escalation sentiment. Nothing too complicated here: if sentiment is trending in favor of peace, bonds have rallied. If sentiment is deteriorating, bonds have sold off. There was a temporary diversion as traders waited to see if last week's China summit would be a catalyst for a shift. When the summit failed to deliver, yields jumped back in line with the re-escalation trend. Now this morning, they're already challenging the bearish boundary of that trend WITHOUT any new justification from an oil price spike, stock market rout, or any new news on the war. In other words, bonds are telling politicians to get serious about ending the war or face increasingly dire consequences. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-05182026 Mon, 18 May 2026 20:18:22 GMT 6a0b82bca6791958c5ceea41 Matthew Graham Bombarded by Headlines, But Little-Changed Monday's trading session ended up being an exercise in headline-watching, as has been the case on so many days since the start of the Iran war. Today was more active than normal in that regard. The earliest headlines (as covered in the AM commentary) were helpful until they weren't. Subsequent headlines continued pushing back on the notion of an easy peace deal until 3pm. At that point, Trump posted that a planned military operation for tomorrow was cancelled and that serious negotiations were now taking place between great leaders and allies, and that a deal will be made. Bond yields and oil prices dropped on that one with Treasuries ultimately making it back to unchanged in the final hour of the session. Market Movement Recap 08:55 AM Some early gains on war headlines. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 1.8bps at 4.573 11:04 AM Gains fully erased as newswires push back on previous headlines. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.8bps at 4.61 02:48 PM New lows. MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 2.7bps at 4.618 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-05182026 Mon, 18 May 2026 14:36:48 GMT 6a0b330ca6791958c5ce4aaf Matthew Graham Bonds began the overnight session by drifting somewhat higher in yield. The 10yr hit 4.63 before recovering modestly just before domestic trading began. Yields were still slightly higher at 7:30am but moved lower after headlines cited rumors that the U.S. agreed to lift Iran's oil sanctions. Subsequent headlines cited a revised counter-proposal from Iran in which it would accept a long-term freeze of its nuclear program in exchange for a truce and gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Bonds rallied on both those newswires with 10s making it below 4.57. They're since reversed course on a 3rd set of newswires citing Iran's negotiators as saying U.S. demand remain excessive despite the changes in the draft proposal. The chart below shows all 3 sets of newswires and the corresponding movement in oil/bonds with strong correlation. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-05152026 Fri, 15 May 2026 21:12:13 GMT 6a079b20a6791958c5c96afb Matthew Graham Bonds Continued Drifting Weaker Throughout The Day Nothing new or interesting happened during the course of the trading day. The key market movers were in place at the start of domestic trading. From an analytical standpoint, the morning commentary adequately recaps the day's bond market motivations. Yields continued drifting higher throughout the session as investors pulled out of both sides of the market in protest of the apparent extension of the Iran war timeframe. 10s ultimately tapped 4.6% and MBS flirted with a 3/4th point day-over-day drop. In the bigger picture, mortgage rates are doing much better than Treasuries compared to last year's levels thanks to GSE bond buying. Econ Data / Events NY Fed Manufacturing (May) 19.60 vs 7.5 f'cast, 11.00 prev Industrial Production (Apr) 0.7% vs 0.3% f'cast, -0.5% prev Market Movement Recap 08:26 AM Sharply weaker overnight. MBS down more than 3/8ths and 10yr up 6.5bps at 4.55 11:47 AM weakest levels. MBS down 5/8ths and 10yr up 10.2bps at 4.586 02:47 PM MBS now down .75 and 10yr up 11bps at 4.595 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-05152026 Fri, 15 May 2026 13:19:11 GMT 6a072bcca6791958c5c89008 Matthew Graham Far too many market participants were apparently hoping that some sort of positive news on the war would be somehow facilitated by the Trump/Xi summit over the past 2 days. But talks wrapped up in the overnight session with little to show for it. There was actually very little notable discussion about the war. Both parties want it to end, but China does not appear to be on the verge of taking action in that regard. Bonds began selling early in the overnight session and continued in the same direction into domestic hours. 10yr yields are the highest since May 2025 and MBS are down over half a point. Bonds also have considerations beyond simply following oil prices as the cost of the war continues to add up to more Treasury issuance and inflation expectations.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-05142026 Thu, 14 May 2026 20:22:39 GMT 6a063de8a6791958c5c6e2c6 Matthew Graham Rally Reverses, Leaving Bonds Weaker in The Afternoon The day began with promise, but devolved into yet another disappointment. After being almost a quarter point higher at 10am, MBS slid to an eighth point loss by the close. 10yr yields were as low as 4.44% early but were as high as 4.48% in the final hour of trading. Just as frustrating as the weakness is the fact that there's no discrete scapegoat in the news or data. That said, oil prices were also moving higher during the bond sell-off. Given the absence of war-related headlines, some traders could be getting antsy due to a lack of progress in the first of Trump and Xi's 2 day meeting. Ahead of the event, there was some speculation that it would be a venue to announce a peace deal. Econ Data / Events Continued Claims (May)/02 1782.0K vs 1790K f'cast, 1766K prev Import prices mm (Apr) 1.9% vs 1.0% f'cast, 0.8% prev Jobless Claims (May)/09 211.0K vs 205K f'cast, 200K prev Retail Sales (Apr) 0.5% vs 0.5% f'cast, 1.7% prev Retail Sales Control Group MoM (Apr) 0.5% vs 0.4% f'cast, 0.7% prev Market Movement Recap 08:30 AM No drama in Retail Sales data. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 1.8bps at 4.446 11:06 AM Minimal change so far. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.452 02:26 PM MBS up 2 ticks (.06) on the day, down just over an eighth from the AM highs. 10yr yields are still down 1bp on the day at 4.455 03:25 PM Weakest levels of the day with 10yr now up 0.1bps at 4.465. MBS are still up 1 tick (.03). 04:19 PM More selling. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.9nps at 4.484 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs