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  • MBS CLOSE: Ongoing Evidence Of Significance

    Today has been unique. In recent weeks, rallies have taken us outside well-established trading ranges, but always with mitigating caveats or forthcoming important data that have called the continuation into question. This has even been the case during the most recent bullish price movement beginning on the 20th of September. Either resistance was not broken significantly enough or a data event, such as FOMC announcement, was coming up quickly enough for us to place expectations of continued improvements or merely for the holding of the new range on hold until more information became available....
  • MBS AFTERNOON: Rally Actually MEANS SOMETHING This Time

    Given our recent admonitions about waiting for NFP as the most important data event of the week, the directionality of today's rally would lead us to half fear / half expect some sort of retracement. Whether it's to be attributed more to technicals, profit taking, or stock lever, or round 2 of Goldman's penchant for insanely accurate11th inning NFP revisions. we've finally seen enough of that correction to discuss it. However, it should be noted that the magnitude of the correction is not nearly what we'd expect to see on the sort of inconsequential and technically driven directionality of week's past. So once again, although we're obligated to say it CAN happen as far as reprices are concerned, it likely WON'T happen. Not yet anyway....
  • MBS CLOSE: The Triangle Show

    Another uninspiring and underwhelming day where after the customary bit of "chop-chop" (as in choppy price movements?) gives way to a fairly predictable range trade through the close. Well, at least this stuff is predictable in hindsight right? I mean, why did we even bother doing anything that could be considered analysis this AM right? Wouldn't it be easier to simply say, "oh, we're at 100-12? Plan on a range-bound moderation toward par by day's end, with unimportant choppiness in between..." ...
 

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