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Although it's a bit too soon to tell, perhaps we're seeing the first day of bond markets officially digging in and beginning the tough, slow push back against the recent period of unimaginable pain otherwise known simply as "October." The results of the 30yr Bond auction may help inform that eventuality to some extent, although it's a bit troublesome to be rallying into the auction. Thankfully, 30's have a bit of a "curve concession" at the moment (they haven't rallied as much as 10's, 7's, 5's have...

Another uninspiring and underwhelming day where after the customary bit of "chop-chop" (as in choppy price movements?) gives way to a fairly predictable range trade through the close. Well, at least this stuff is predictable in hindsight right? I mean, why did we even bother doing anything that could be considered analysis this AM right? Wouldn't it be easier to simply say, "oh, we're at 100-12? Plan on a range-bound moderation toward par by day's end, with unimportant choppiness in between..." ...

Is data driving the markets? Economic reports? Stocks are up and bonds have ticked down slightly. So does this mean that it was the better than expected durable goods print filling the causality role? Not even remotely. We talked quite a bit yesterday about market movements being disconnected from fundamentals. Indeed that's the case again this AM with most eyes being turned toward the auction at 1pm. Rather than hit you up with another lengthy morning post, and considering that a decent portion of you didn't read yesterday's morning post, and considering it was very pertinent, I strongly suggest you read it. I know it's long, but do it!...

The charts tell the same story that we set up for this AM in that the early data had little to no impact on trading action with auction providing the true impetus for movement on the day. A lack of acknowledgement from prices is readily understood when we see that they completely ignored better than expected data and kept grinding into a narrower range--virtually honing in almost exactly on PAR. After the auction, it's a different story. As opposed to a narrowing range with a series of lower highs and higher lows, we see a decided move up with higher highs and higher lows, the entire affair at a much steeper angle of attack than previous directionality. As we approach the last hour of trade, we're nearing the band of price levels that marked the upper limits of last week's very prominent range. All of the preceding graphically represented here:...