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  • The Day So Far: Bonds Open Weaker, Fight Back to Unchanged

    Economic Data Recap: Retail Sales - Perhaps the most anticipated report of the week, December Retail Sales, missed expectations this morning, rising only 0.1 pct versus a +0.3 pct consensus and a +0.4pct reading in November. Sales excluding autos fell for the first time since May 2010, down 0.2 pct vs last month's +0.3 pct. Gas sales led the decline falling 1.6 pct after rising 0.9 pct last month. Factoring out gasoline, retail sales would have hit their 0.3 pct expectations. Core sales, however...
  • The Day Ahead: Equities Dip Ahead of ISM Data

    A weak European session has September starting off in the wrong direction. Equities are falling ahead of the 10am ISM Manufacturing Index, which is predicted to fall into contraction for the first time since the economic recovery began. Treasuries are benefitting from the uncertainty and are firming across the curve. The two-year yield is a basis point lower at 0.20%, while 10-year and 30-year yields are each three basis points down at 2.20% and 3.58%, respectively. Equity futures are on track to...
  • Bonds Continue Tepid Recovery Despite Lower Jobless Claims

    At 830am, weekly jobless claims printed at 421k vs 425k median estimates. Many of the report's metrics showed improvements, but despite a few "best levels in 2 years," the numbers were largely as expected, thus it encited a minimal amount of panic in bond market this morning. ...
  • DATA FLASH: Fewer Jobless Claims. Better Q2 GDP. Stocks Rally. Bonds Do Not

    830AM data has been released. Both Jobless Claims and final Q2 GDP beat consensus estimates (barely). Stock futures better, benchmark bond yields up, MBS lose positive price progress. ...
  • Bonds Holding Risk Averse Bid As Stocks Squeeze Out Gains

    S&Ps opened lower and traded higher before closing near the same level they opened yesterday. This tells us the stock market is indecisive after S&Ps broke 200 day moving average. Benchmark yields moved lower across the curve yesterday. The 10yr note was the best performer, falling 4.4bps to 3.264% (+12 at 101-31). The 2 yr note dropped 2.4bps to 0.734% (+01 at 100-01.). Although price action has been choppy lately, interest rates have generally performed well while the pain trade plays out in equity and forex markets. Mortgages have had a rough go at it over the last two days. Prices moved lower and yield spreads wider, this is not normal behavior for mortgage-backs. Their relative value generally improves (yield spreads tighter) as benchmark yields rise (implies borrowers will have less incentive to refinance). Cheaper valuations were due though, production MBS coupons were a bit overbought....
  • Jobless Claims Rise 25K In NFP Survey Week. EU Dominates Trading Sentiment

    Shifts in the value of global currencies, rising short term bank funding costs (LIBOR), and general political uncertainties (here and abroad) continue to be the main sources of consideration for traders. The longer this "crisis" carries out, the more it will be viewed as a global pandemic by market participants. Interest rates continue to benefit from a flight to quality. Floating from here will see less and less returns as MBS yield spreads will continue to widen against benchmark yields....
  • Jobless Claims Fall During NFP Survey Week. Market on Tapebomb Watch

    There is a ton of noise surrounding the marketplace at the moment, and it's coming mostly out of the EU. I don't see the trading environment acting any different than it has over the past year though. BIG PICTURE perspectives are clouded by assumptions based on assumptions and aggregate demand is still heavily subsidized by global governments and central banks. Sentiment is still shifting more toward confirmed stabilization and recuperation though. The worst case scenario seems avoided and most believe a bottom has been put in place. This leaves main street at the mercy of professional market participants who can't let their P&L sit idle while the world proves its worth. ...
  • Rates Ignore Weak Jobless Claims Data. Now Testing the Resolve of Recent Rally

    Considering CPI data confirmed inflation is well contained and Ben Bernanke continues to provide low rate rhetoric..I have to say I am baffled by the rise in rates. Actually no I am not...we were nervously expecting it. It's still a trader's world and we're still living in it. 10s tried their darnedest to breakout below 3.80% and head toward the 3.57 to 3.85 range midpoint at 3.71%. 10s FAILED to gain momentum on several occasions! Even when fundamentals supported the move! With that in mind, traders appear to be looking to confirm that the market is comfortable with the 10 year note yielding less than 3.85%. While I do think we could see rates rise a bit further before another retest of lower levels occurs we are hopeful for a move back below 3.85%. There are several Fed speakers on the schedule today, we sure could use more dovish comments from Bernanke's understudies....
  • Jobless Claims Stubbornly High. Post Data Trade Confirms Recent Rates Rally

    You know the story. We forecast a test of 4.00% back in December. That test happened in extremely illiquid quarter-end conditions after a run of better than expected econ data and three sloppy Treasury auctions. When Q1 came to a close and global markets went back to work after holiday, those yields were seen as a big bargain buy....selling stopped out and rates reversed course. 4.00% support held steady. Now bullish momentum is building and 10s are testing the 3.57 to 3.85% range again. We continue to float through this one day at a time. Cautiously. Defensively. ...
  • Consumer Level Inflation Tame in February. Emergency Jobless Benefits Hit Record High

    Inflation data was dovish, supportive of exceptionally low Federal Reserve interest rate policy for an "extended period". Jobless claims were worse than expected and still stubbornly high. A lack of job creation is evident via the growing use of emergency unemployment benefits (at a record high). ...
  • MBS OPEN: Speculative Signs of Reversal in Benchmarks

    In a speculative manner, it appears rates traders are looking for an opportunity to push TSY prices higher (yields lower) as the long end of the yield curve has quickly approached the outer limits of it's 2010 range. You know the saying: PLAY THE RANGE UNTIL THE RANGE PLAYS YOU. Supporting this speculative strategy is a flatter 2s10s curve...a sign that this week's "take what you are given" auction concession sell off may be losing steam. If demand is firm at the long bond auction I will watching and waiting for rebound rally opportunities. ...
  • MBS OPEN: Warm Inflation Data Offsets Rise in Jobless Claims

    After opening to the upside, mortgages are now trading flat thanks to inflationary concerns in PPI data (if you need an explanation). The FN 4.0 is +0-01 at 97-21 yielding 4.224% and the FN 4.5 is +0-00 at 100-21 yielding 4.43%. The secondary market current coupon is 4.41%. REPRICES FOR THE WORSE would occur around 100-16. REPRICES FOR THE BETTER would occur around 100-30....
  • MBS OPEN: Weak Jobless Claims Raise Doubts for Positive NFP Print

    Jobless Claims increased by 8,000 last week to 480,000 new claims. This was worse than expected. The rates market, which was already rebounding from yesterdays weakness, got a boost after the release. Rate sheet rebate will be improved today. ...
  • MBS OPEN: Getting Defensive as Market Sorts Out Mixed Messages

    I am starting to feel a bit more anxious about the relief rally retracement...meaning our "day to day" lock float guidance is looking more toward a lock than a float. Trading has been VERY VERY slow to start the day...this is a sign that market participants are trying to sort through the mess of political rhetoric (health care and bank regulation) and asterisk filled econ data (labor department says the holiday season caused administrative issues which leaked through to data). I am feeling EXTRA DEFENSIVE at the moment and would be looking to do some "position squaring" aka take profits and wait for the outlook to clear up a bit. If you are floating several loans this means I think you should be taking recent gains on more than half of them. GUTFLOP. After that get back to your purchase marketing......
  • MBS OPEN: Retail Sales and Jobless Claims Weaker

    Rate sheet rebate and the "relief rally" suffered a setback yesterday afternoon following a marginally above average 10 year note auction yesterday. The tide has however turned this morning thanks to a round of weaker than expected economic data: RETAIL SALES and JOBLESS CLAIMS...
 

More From MND

Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 3.88%
  • |
  • 15 Yr FRM 3.25%
  • |
  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.14%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 106-20 (0-00)
  • |
  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 108-01 (0-00)
  • |
  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 108-30 (0-00)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps -1.01%
  • |
  • Refinance Index 0.83%
  • |
  • NAHB Builder Confidence 16.00%
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