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  • Benchmark Yields Heading Into Double Dip Territory

    Lets review recent events. As euro crisis contagion exhausted itself in May, stocks began to rise from long-term support levels. Short covering led to more short covering and stocks rallied all the way into quadruple witching day. This was not an originator friendly event as mortgage rates looked to be on the verge of 5.00%. However, bond traders were quick to sniff out stock-side weakness (the stock rally was forced buying) and a flight to quality poured into benchmark Treasuries. Stocks were soon trending lower, and lower....and lower and Treasuries were on a tear that led "rate sheet influential" MBS coupons to new record highs.Again. And Again. And Again Today....
  • MBS CLOSE: Did We Mention Tomorrow's Importance?

    It might seem cliche, but everything really does come down to NFP tomorrow, and by "everything," I mean the next 6 weeks... In case you missed last night's closing commentary, there was a chart that showed a very strong similarity in MBS movements over the past 3 years compared to this year. In fact, on the exact same weeks in history, annual lows were made in MBS four years in a row. On the exact same week in history, prices began to weaken and head toward the only only other major low before eventually moving higher into the winter. And you guessed it, those low points also occurred on the exact same week! Put to picture, it goes something like this:...
  • MBS MORNING: What is the Yield Curve Telling Us???

    This week the Treasury Department successfully auctioned off $75 billion 3s/10s/30s...raising about $14 billion in new cash. So the latest round of auctions have come and gone (dont worry there will be more). Considering many expected the market to force higher returns from the Treasury (higher interest rates)....these auctions did not go bad. Has anyone noticed what the yield curve has been trying to tell us? Perhaps bond traders are telling stock traders that their bullish optimism is a bit overheated?...
  • MBS MORNING: Rates Lower Ahead of Auction.

    The Fed didnt offer up much new guidance yesterday, well I dont want to say they totally crapped the bed because they did draw out the end of the TSY purchase program which turned out to be a net plus for MBS, overall it was a STATUS QUO statement though. Unfortunately this left us scratching our head (still)....wondering when we might see some resemblance of fundamentals return to the marketplace. Oh well...I suppose until then we will continue to avoid over analyzing data in favor of pacing trading flows and tracking technicals....
 

More From MND

Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 3.88%
  • |
  • 15 Yr FRM 3.25%
  • |
  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.14%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 106-20 (-0-06)
  • |
  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 108-01 (-0-05)
  • |
  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 108-30 (-0-03)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps -1.01%
  • |
  • Refinance Index 0.83%
  • |
  • Purchase Index -8.41%
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