March 2021 - MBS Commentary

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Property Taxes Outpacing Inflation; Forbearances Decline; Victory For Rates

Published: 4/9/2021

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MBS RECAP: Moderate Weakness But No Major Quarter-End Drama

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by Matthew Graham on March 31 2021, 4:21 PM

Month/Quarter-End Trading Refresher; More Stimulus Details Today is the last day of the month and quarter. That means more for financial markets than it does for many other sectors. While there is no hard and fast rule concerning timing, there is historically...
MBS RECAP: 'Unchanged' Feels Like a Victory

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by Matthew Graham on March 30 2021, 3:49 PM

'Unchanged' Feels Like a Victory Bonds began the day at the highest yields in more than a year and slowly worked their way back to 'unchanged.' Solid justification for the move (in either direction) was elusive. Traders are talking in...
MBS Day Ahead: Where's The Ceiling? More Looking and Less Finding

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by Matthew Graham on March 30 2021, 9:36 AM

Bonds remain in the midst of a very large and sustained sell-off. Generally speaking, the rising rate environment is a logical byproduct of pandemic progress with acceleration on both fronts beginning in February (i.e. faster yield spikes = faster vaccinations...
MBS RECAP: New Week, New Weakness

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by Matthew Graham on March 29 2021, 4:27 PM

New Week, New Weakness The new week wasted very little time in reinforcing the realities of 2021. This is a rising rate environment until further notice and any rapid correction toward lower rates will take some serious motivation. That motivation could...
MBS Day Ahead: Month/Quarter-End Trading and Friday Jobs Report

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by Matthew Graham on March 29 2021, 10:21 AM

Last week ended on a sour note with moderately brisk selling on Friday erasing what had been a relatively hopeful trend up until that point. Bonds continue looking for evidence that the rising rate trend of 2021 has finally encountered its first meaningful...
MBS RECAP: Valiant Effort But This Week's Bounce-Back Effort Falls Short

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by Matthew Graham on March 26 2021, 5:13 PM

Valiant Effort But This Week's Bounce-Back Effort Falls Short Insult, meet injury? Oh, you're already acquainted?! Of course you are... It's 2021 and we're talking about the bond market after all. Just over 24 hours after bonds looked...
MBS Day Ahead: No Easy Victories as Bonds Keep Struggling to Break Technical Floors

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by Matthew Graham on March 26 2021, 10:46 AM

1.62% has been one of the most important technical levels for 10yr yields in the past month. After breaking above last week, we had a chance to confirm a break back below yesterday and ended up closing to close for a clear signal. Overnight weakness emphasizes...
MBS RECAP: Thursday Curse Continues But It Was Still a Good Day for Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on March 25 2021, 3:37 PM

Thursday Curse Continues But It Was Still a Good Day for Bonds Although bonds won't be able to say they broke 2021's perfect record of selling on Thursdays (based on the 3pm CME close... there's a bit of time left before the 5pm close), it...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Trying to do That Which Has Not Yet Been Done in 2021

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by Matthew Graham on March 25 2021, 10:06 AM

Today could be the day. If markets were to close right now, it would be the first day in 2021 where bonds could say they'd rallied 4 days in a row or 4 days in a week. Strikingly, it would also be the first Thursday in 2021 where yields moved lower...
MBS RECAP: Decent Day Despite Lukewarm Treasury Auction. Dovish Fed Helps

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by Matthew Graham on March 24 2021, 3:44 PM

Decent Day Despite Lukewarm Treasury Auction. Dovish Fed Helps This morning's weaker Durable Goods data had no effect on trading levels. At the time, bonds were in the process of moving up in yield after a decent little overnight rally, and the selling...
MBS Day Ahead: 5yr Auction in Focus; What About Econ Data and Oil?

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by Matthew Graham on March 24 2021, 9:27 AM

Bonds are starting the day in roughly unchanged territory after trying to go on a stronger run in the overnight session. If the remainder of the week sees higher yields, it will be yet another example of the "false start" trend discussed yesterday...
MBS RECAP: Even Stronger Than Yesterday, But Confirmation Still Needed

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by Matthew Graham on March 23 2021, 3:33 PM

Strong Move Today. Need Confirmation in Coming Days Bonds walked their own path today with gains overnight holding fairly steady during the first part of the domestic session. Mid-day testimony from Powell/Yellen had no effect on Treasuries/MBS, but a...
MBS Day Ahead: Powell Fireworks Unlikely; Caution on Bounce Potential

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by Matthew Graham on March 23 2021, 10:40 AM

Fed Chair Powell will be in the hot seat again today, only this time in the form of congressional testimony on the CARES Act. The prepared remarks for that speech are already out and had no impact on markets (yesterday). So if we're to see any major...
MBS RECAP: Not a Bad Day, But We Need More Convincing

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by Matthew Graham on March 22 2021, 4:24 PM

Not a Bad Day, But We Need More Convincing Rates have tried to convince us that the worst is over on several occasions in the past few months. First it was 1.18%, then 1.38%, and most recently 1.63% (all in terms of 10yr yields), but all of those would...
MBS Day Ahead: Another Week, Another Chance, But No Guarantees

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by Matthew Graham on March 22 2021, 9:51 AM

Last week was the 7th straight week of higher bond yields--something we haven't seen since Q2 2009, when bonds were undergoing their first correction to the massive rally brought on by the Fed's QE response to the financial crisis. This time around...

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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.29%
|
15 Yr FRM 2.75%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.33%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 108-21 (0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 110-19 (0-05)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 111-13 (-0-03)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps -2.51%
|
Refinance Index -5.12%
|
Purchase Index -100.00%

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