January 2021 - MBS Commentary

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Too Strong to Give Up Hope. Too Weak to Rest Easy; Construction Spending Doubles Expectations

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MBS RECAP: Decent Recovery After Scary Start But Risks Remain

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by Matthew Graham on January 29 2021, 5:35 PM

Decent Recovery After Scary Start But Risks Remain 10yr yields were as high as 1.105% at one point today, but recovered nicely by the close (1.071%). Similar story for MBS with significant intraday weakness giving way to only modest losses by the end...
MBS Day Ahead: 7 Charts: Trends, Risks, and Realities in Bonds and Mortgage Rates

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by Matthew Graham on January 29 2021, 9:40 AM

Yesterday's bond market weakness ran the risk of signalling an end to the winning streak enjoyed since January 12th. Those gains were fairly steady and they took yields from the very top of the prevailing trading pattern almost all the way to the...
MBS RECAP: Why Are We Losing Ground Today and What's The Implication?

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by Matthew Graham on January 28 2021, 3:52 PM

Why Are We Losing Ground Today and What's The Implication? Due to its timing and size, today's bond market weakness may suggest the short-term rally is reversing course. One single day of selling is usually never enough to confirm such things...
MBS Day Ahead: 1st Look at Q4 GDP as 10yr Hovers Near 1.0%

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by Matthew Graham on January 28 2021, 8:31 AM

Bonds have rallied or held steady every day this week and the net effect is a visit to the 1.0% psychological floor for 10yr yields. Psychology aside, the floor of the actual trend channel (a series of higher lows and higher highs that connect to form...
MBS RECAP: Very Tame Reaction to The Fed Despite Bond-Friendly Message

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by Matthew Graham on January 27 2021, 4:59 PM

Very Tame Reaction to The Fed Despite Bond-Friendly Message Bonds took a bit of a lead-off heading into today's Fed announcement as 10yr yields flirted with a break below 1.0% for the first time since cresting that level in early January. As expected...
Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements

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by Matthew Graham on January 27 2021, 2:02 PM

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals. The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic...
MBS Day Ahead: Friendly Bond Bounce Continues as 10s Target 1.0%

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by Matthew Graham on January 27 2021, 9:42 AM

With 10yr yields breaking the 1.075% technical floor on Monday, the bond market added evidence to the case for a move back to 1.0%. Today's early gains make the evidence nearly overwhelming with yields less than half a basis point away at times. With...
MBS RECAP: MBS Outperform Treasuries Thank to Light Supply at Fed Buying Operation

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by Matthew Graham on January 26 2021, 3:58 PM

MBS Outperform Treasuries Thank to Light Supply at Fed Buying Operation Treasuries didn't gain any new ground today, but it's a bit of a victory to simply hold below the recent floor at 1.075%. Moreover, MBS outperformed after sellers offered...
MBS Day Ahead: One Floor Opens, Another Takes Its Place

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by Matthew Graham on January 26 2021, 9:44 AM

10yr yields broke below 1.075% yesterday--a level that had proven tough to break despite multiple attempts in the past 2 weeks. The move followed several large block trades that provided leadership for an otherwise range-bound market. Some reports suggested...
MBS RECAP: Strong Move in Treasuries But MBS Underperform (Significantly)

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by Matthew Graham on January 25 2021, 4:17 PM

Strong Move in Treasuries But MBS Underperform (Significantly) While much of the world of finance and institutional investment seemed to be preoccupied with day trading some truly epic ridiculousness via Game Stop, the bond market was doing a few interesting...
MBS Week Ahead: Bonds Already Challenging Technical Boundaries

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by Matthew Graham on January 25 2021, 9:31 AM

Another week, another chance to see if bonds will continue to avoid confrontation with the boundaries of the recent range. 1.075% emerged as the floor to beat in terms of 10yr Treasury yields over the past 2 weeks, with multiple unsuccessful breakout...
MBS RECAP: Calm Week Ends on an Even Calmer Note

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by Matthew Graham on January 22 2021, 4:24 PM

Calm Week Ends on an Even Calmer Note It's rare to see non-holidays Fridays in January be quite as underwhelming as today turned out to be. Bonds remained locked perfectly inside prevailing trends. That's a good thing in this case as it meant...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Should Give Their Next Technical Signal Any Day Now

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by Matthew Graham on January 22 2021, 9:25 AM

The nature of the pandemic has made for some very mechanical and orderly market movement. The best example of this in the bond market is the "trend channel" (parallel lines marking the highs and lows, yellow lines in today's chart) we've...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Push Back Against AM Weakness, But Risks Remain

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by Matthew Graham on January 21 2021, 3:32 PM

Bonds Push Back Against AM Weakness, But Risks Remain Yields were breaking higher as the domestic session began with traders citing the European Central Bank (ECB) as the primary source of motivation. The ECB changed its stance on one of its bond buying...
MBS Day Ahead: Defensive Shift is a Cause For Concern; Yields Struggling With an Important Floor

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by Matthew Graham on January 21 2021, 9:56 AM

The GA senate election shift is old news. It did the damage it was always likely to do, but bonds had a good show of support by the end of the following week. That made good enough sense considering the pandemic is driving the market and the pandemic...

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MBS RECAP: Nice Bounce! Now What?

Nice Bounce! Now What? - An early bounce turned into an even bigger, friendlier bounce at the end of the day - Biggest reason for the gains is the losses...
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Brutal Week For Rates But There's Hope (Hopefully...

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Forbearances Post Typical Mid-Month Increase

Black Knight reports a second increase in the number of loans in pandemic related forbearance plans in as many weeks. Forborne loans rose by 21,000 during...
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Lenders Hiring MLOs; Correspondent, Tech, Servicing...

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Freddie Mac's 12-Month Portfolio Growth Nears Half...

Freddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 16.1 percent in January compared to a 22.4 percent...
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Deadlines for COVID-19 related relief for borrowers with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (GSE) mortgages were extended by the Federal Housing Finance Agency...
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Mortgage Rates Are Now Well Over 3 Percent

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MBS RECAP: Video Time Corresponds With Market Drama...

Just When You Thought It Wouldn't Get Much Worse Staggeringly weak day for bonds. 2.0 MBS coupon is now irrelevant. 2.5 is only game in town Lots of...
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MBS Day Ahead: Just When You Thought It Wouldn't...

It got much worse. Bond yields were up more than 8bps by the open with the 10yr just a hair under 1.47%. It might be hard for traders to avoid ringing...
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Pending Home Sales Post 5th Straight Loss

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Ops, MLO Jobs; Cap. Mkts., Valuation, Default, Fulfillment...

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Highest Mortgage Rates Since June 2020

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MBS RECAP: Is It Another Trap and Which Coupon Do I...

Is It Another Trap and Which Coupon Do I Watch Now? Yesterday's bond market resilience offered hope for a bounce, but those hopes were crushed by new...
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New Home Sales on the Rise 4.3% in January

New home sales continued the turnaround, started in December, that ended three straight months of slowing sales. The U.S. Census Bureau and Department...
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Delinquency Rate Lowest in COVID Era; but Lingering...

Loan performance continued to improve in January although the number of delinquencies remains significantly elevated from pre-pandemic levels. Black Knight...
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MBS Day Ahead: It Was a Trap... Don't Expect Stocks...

Yesterday saw yields hold at just slightly lower highs on an intraday basis, thus offering a glimmer of hope for a bond bounce. We discussed the risk that...
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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 3.22%
|
15 Yr FRM 2.58%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.40%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 108-24 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 110-20 (0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 111-13 (-0-07)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 0%
|
Refinance Index 0%
|
Purchase Index 0%

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