January 2021 - MBS Commentary

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Published: 1/22/2021

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MBS RECAP: Calm Week Ends on an Even Calmer Note

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by Matthew Graham on January 22 2021, 4:24 PM

Calm Week Ends on an Even Calmer Note It's rare to see non-holidays Fridays in January be quite as underwhelming as today turned out to be. Bonds remained locked perfectly inside prevailing trends. That's a good thing in this case as it meant...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Should Give Their Next Technical Signal Any Day Now

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by Matthew Graham on January 22 2021, 9:25 AM

The nature of the pandemic has made for some very mechanical and orderly market movement. The best example of this in the bond market is the "trend channel" (parallel lines marking the highs and lows, yellow lines in today's chart) we've...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Push Back Against AM Weakness, But Risks Remain

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by Matthew Graham on January 21 2021, 3:32 PM

Bonds Push Back Against AM Weakness, But Risks Remain Yields were breaking higher as the domestic session began with traders citing the European Central Bank (ECB) as the primary source of motivation. The ECB changed its stance on one of its bond buying...
MBS Day Ahead: Defensive Shift is a Cause For Concern; Yields Struggling With an Important Floor

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by Matthew Graham on January 21 2021, 9:56 AM

The GA senate election shift is old news. It did the damage it was always likely to do, but bonds had a good show of support by the end of the following week. That made good enough sense considering the pandemic is driving the market and the pandemic...
MBS Day Ahead: Does Inauguration Day Matter For The Bond Market?

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by Matthew Graham on January 20 2021, 9:50 AM

Does inauguration day matter for the bond market? Not as such, no. To be sure, the changing of the guard in D.C. is indeed a big deal for the bond market, but only because the senate flipped to democratic control as well. The inauguration is just ceremony...
MBS RECAP: Uneventful Start This Week; Next Move Remains Debatable

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by Matthew Graham on January 19 2021, 3:51 PM

Uneventful Start This Week; Next Move Remains Debatable Bonds began the day in weaker territory but rallied back to nearly unchanged levels after several comments from inbound Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Of particular note were Yellen's comments...
MBS Week Ahead: After Last Week's Defensive Stand, What's Next For Bonds?

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by Matthew Graham on January 19 2021, 9:39 AM

Last week's bond trading served the role of establishing a ceiling for yields after their biggest spike in nearly a year (and the case could be made that the rate spike in March was an artificial and temporary byproduct of covid-related market dislocations...
MBS RECAP: Big Victory This Week (In Response To Last Week's Big Loss)

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by Matthew Graham on January 15 2021, 4:42 PM

Big Victory This Week (In Response To Last Week's Big Loss) Relative to the spectrum of possibilities, ending the week with 10yr Treasury yields under 1.1% is a big victory. Of course that wouldn't have been the case before last week, but everything's...
MBS Day Ahead: Bonds Not Threatened By Stimulus; Consolidation Continues

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by Matthew Graham on January 15 2021, 9:27 AM

After the GA senate elections, the bond market immediately knew it needed to prepare for additional stimulus, even if moderate democratic voices might serve to limit the size and scope. We hazarded a guess that this was worth 10yr yields rising 25bps...
MBS RECAP: Bonds Playing it Extra Safe Ahead of Biden's Stimulus Details

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by Matthew Graham on January 14 2021, 4:03 PM

Bonds Playing it Extra Safe Ahead of Biden's Stimulus Details As we discussed yesterday, the strong mid-week rally suggested a good amount of short covering was behind the move. This merely means traders who bet on rising rates were finally cashing...
MBS Day Ahead: Waiting On Stimulus Details, Shrugging Off Early Reports of $2 Trillion

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by Matthew Graham on January 14 2021, 9:48 AM

A few hours after markets closed yesterday, news began coming out regarding a Biden aide mentioning tonight's stimulus proposal would be in the $2 trillion neighborhood. That's quite a bit more than the $1.3 trillion that had been making the rounds...
MBS RECAP: Important Victory For Bonds, and Another Battle Ahead

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by Matthew Graham on January 13 2021, 4:25 PM

Important Victory For Bonds, and Another Battle Ahead Rates rallied today. Despite a positive reaction to a strong 30yr bond auction, it looks like traders made their minds up to be buyers well before that. The rally greatly improves the odds that 10yr...
MBS Day Ahead: An Important Day For Bonds' Attempt to Establish a Ceiling

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by Matthew Graham on January 13 2021, 9:28 AM

With yesterday offering the first legitimate push back against the recent sell-off, today becomes one of three critically important days in establishing a ceiling for bond yields (or a floor for MBS prices). With Biden announcing stimulus details tomorrow...
MBS RECAP: Much-Anticipated Correction Finally Arrives. Now What?

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by Matthew Graham on January 12 2021, 4:16 PM

Much-Anticipated Correction Finally Arrives. Now What? This morning's alert noted a scary scenario playing out in bonds due to a confluence of big picture negative motivations (power shift in D.C., ruminations about Fed tapering, brighter covid/econ...
MBS Day Ahead: Scary Scenario Playing Out in Bonds

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by Matthew Graham on January 12 2021, 10:04 AM

This morning's alert notes that the bond market is in the midst of one of its scarier scenarios. The ingredients are as follows: a long run in a record low rate range with uncommonly strong help (both from the Fed and from the market movers in play...

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Mortgage Rates:

30 Yr FRM 2.80%
|
15 Yr FRM 2.30%
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.30%

MBS Prices:

30YR FNMA 4.5 108-16 (-0-02)
|
30YR FNMA 5.0 110-15 (-0-01)
|
30YR FNMA 5.5 111-08 (-0-01)

Recent Housing Data:

Mortgage Apps 1.06%
|
Refinance Index 1.40%
|
Purchase Index 1.81%

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